Under a White Sky: The Nature of the Future

Under a White Sky: The Nature of the Future by Elizabeth Kolbert

Humans of gone to great effort to engineer nature to their designs. While this has often worked well in the short term, the long term is quite a different story. There are many cases of plants or animals that were introduced to help with a local issue, only to have caused even greater issues. People have also built many structures to combat one problem only to have another problem surface. The water control structures in Louisiana have helped prevent floods (when they work). Yet, the floods are what deposited sediment to keep the land.

After discussing the many unintended consequences of engineering the planet, the book pivots to climate change. We have spewed so much carbon into the atmosphere that we are impacting the climate. By some accounts, even if we stop all carbon emissions we are still on a bad path. That leaves reducing carbon in the air as a potential solution. How could that go wrong? The book first explores various carbon sequestering schemes in a positive light. Then puts on the cautious hat. Humanity does not have a good record looking at all the long-term consequences and impacts of the big projects. Alas, we are still continuing down the route. Will switching to electric cars really make a difference when the freeways themselves are impacting ecosystems? Could carbon captures just encourage more bad behavior? Or will it lead to a negative feedback loop in the other direction? Climate change does not have easy solutions.

Against the Machine: On the Unmaking of Humanity

Against the Machine: On the Unmaking of Humanity by Paul Kingsnorth

Western culture has gone against itself. The elites have decided that the western culture is "bad" due to imperialist roots and sought to focus on individuals beliefs. Other cultures are still respected to some extent even if they go against individuality. However, they are also gradually being subsumed. Alas, we cannot dictate what will come and fill the void. What has been coming about is an unbridled individuality and capitalistic machine. Both the right and left work within this machine. Science and rational thought are the new "religion" of the machine. People are in a supreme position to remake the world however they see fit. However, what is instead being remade is humanity itself. People are attached to screens for much of their lives. New technology becomes ubiquitous, making it difficult to function outside of it. We have transportation that can move us faster - but the places we go are now all very similar. Religion and human-scale social ties are fading as mass algorithm-based communication has dominated. AI prevents many potential unknowns. The ancient Luddites were dispariaged for fighting against technology, but maybe they were on to something. Are all the benefits of modern technology worth it? Are we too busy debating the margins of the machine to notice what has subsumed humanity? The book is well reasoned, balance look from somebody that has taken part in various movements and tries to look at all sides of issues. 

The Waste Makers

The Waste Makers by Vance Packard

I often think of older products being made to last longer with higher quality, replaceable parts. However, this book, written ini 1960, laments the poor quality and planned obsolescence at the time.  I guess no matter how bad things are now, they can get worse. Some areas seem to be carrying right on with the tend line outlined. Other areas may have gotten a bit carried away. He praises Japan for getting population growth under control. They sure did. Now there population has been declining rapidly. 

Much of the waste is in the mindset. Companies want people to buy new things. They update products frequently to drive new sales. They add gimmicks (such as fins on cars) that differentiate, even at the expense of greater resource consumption. Media has become part of the marketing machine. (It was interesting to read that there may have been an alternative. We take the influence of media so much for granted today.) So much of our society is predicated on waste. On one hand it is depressing. However, it does mean there is a lot of area for improvement.

Time to Think Small: How Nimble Environmental Technologies Can Solve the Planet's Biggest Problems

Time to Think Small: How Nimble Environmental Technologies Can Solve the Planet's Biggest Problems by Todd Myers

Libertarianism and environmentalism can go together well. Small scale, bottom-up improvements can exceed top-down mandates. Some general principles are remarkably simple. Energy costs money. People like to save money. Making it easy to reduce energy saves them money and encourages more savings. Mandates can backfire. I have a house that was built at a time when GU24 sockets were mandated. This was a hard mandate to encourage more efficient lights. However, this used CFLs which are expensive and hard to dispose of. Shortly thereafter, LED bulbs with standard sockets became popular. These are cheaper, use less energy and are easier to dispose of. The top-down failed by mandating something, while the bottom up got something better. The author alludes to similar cases of energy markets. The west coast had heavy regulation which limited innovation possible. Even west-coast startups were first to launch out east.

The book describes many technologies and companies that have done small things to improve the environment. Many have succeeded despite the difficulty of battling against entrenched interests and regulation. Microgrids can provide enhanced resiliency and greater efficiency (since electricity does not have to travel as far.) However, they do not fit in well with the large scale regulated utilities. Providing better knowledge about electricity usage can help users cut back on waste. Small scale clean up innovations can help reduce oceanic garbage. There are many other examples. Small improvements that spread can have a much bigger impact than large mandates that people are reluctant to use. Nobody came down and said: "we will require everyone to use a vehicle that ways 10 times as much as them to get around". However, people gradually started to use cars. Government came in to "improve" some of the problems with cars by creating highways to reduce congestion, safety standards, fuel economy standards, parking requirements, etc. These were attempts to improve issues, but they have also created additional issues and entrenched the poor environmental policy. The small solutions are the ways to move away from this, but that may require breaking away from the existing government challenges.

Human Nature

Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel About Our Changing Planet by Kate Marvel

The author talks about ways we have changed the planet and what we can do. It seemed fairly well written, but was not very distinguishable from other books written about the environment. The author did smartly favor "natural" solutions. There is a great possibility of unintended consequences using great technical solutions to try to "cool" the earth. We are better off focussing on reducing what we do bad.

Waste: Uncovering the Global Food Scandal

Waste: Uncovering the Global Food Scandal by Tristram Stuart

People in the world are starving, yet huge amounts of food go to waste. How can that be?  There are numerous competing priorities to lead to this predicament. Concerns about food safety often lead to overzealous one-size-fits-all regulations that lead to more waste. Economic concerns also lead to more waste. It is more economical to produce extra that is later discarded than to not have enough for what is desired by customers. There are also competing uses for food. Biofuels help reduce fossil-fuel carbon emissions, yet they often use the same crops used to produce food.

How do resolve food waste problems? The easiest is to start with separation of food waste from other waste. Composting food waste or using it for animal feed is much more efficient than sending it to the dump. However, it is even better to make sure that it is not wasted. Serving smaller portions and then letting people have more is an effective way to limit discards. This meshes with some cultural norms, but goes strongly against others.

The best use of food is as actual food. Grocery stores can mark down or give away food near the end of its shelf life. This ensures more food can be consumed rather than tossed. The author has experience "dumpster diving" for food. This can often be used to find good amounts of food. However, businesses have concerns about the mess it causes or the danger that could occur with bad food. Why not just give it away via a more legitimate means so that it does not go to waste? 

Sell by dates are also a big problem that needs to be addressed.  Some products may be unsafe after the date. Others may be fine to eat decades after the date. One size fits all is not good.

In the less developed world, there are different challenges. Many crops end up going to waste in the storage or transportation process. 

Waste is a huge problem. It is easy to describe, but hard to resolve.

The Brave Little Turtle

The Brave Little Turtle by Gill McBarnet

Two turtles swim around in Hawaii. One hot shot turtle seems to be "brave", while the other seems more shy. The hot shot turtle goes swimming all over the place and gets some plastic stuck around his neck. He thinks it will just fall off, but it doesn't. Many other animals try without success. Finally the other turtle helps the brave turtle to go to the beach to get humans to take it off. They are at first scared because this problem came from humans. They finally go up and do get it off. The other turtle is the "brave" one who did things smartly and was willing to go help solve the problem. The book is a little long, but fairly good.

Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things

Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things by William McDonough and Michael Braungart

We often talk about "consumers". However, in the long run, very little is actually consumed. Most good we buy are used for a little bit and then disposed of in landfills. Attempts to improve this often look at the "cradle to grave" lifespan of goods, but many of these just delay the inevitable. Much recycle is "downcycling" to lower quality goods that are then landfilled. Critical components are often not extractable and thus are lost in the recycling. There are also many dangerous chemicals that are part of the process. Environmentally friendly options often have negative parts. The recycled paper may contain harmful components from the previous life and be hard to read. Items may also include components from other countries that are not subject to similar environmental standards.

This book advocates for an alternative to "reduce, reuse, recycle". Even if we reduce our footprint, we still have a significant negative footprint that will add up over time. Instead, we should look for ways where what we have can make an improvement. An example would be a plant where the manufacturing process makes the outflowing water better than what came in - all while carrying out its purpose. Rather than trying to be less bad, we can be "more good". Truly sustainable processes would lead to continual improvements. Rather than reduce the human footprint, we should work to make it positive. This is a different, albeit much harder approach.

Last Days of the Mighty Mekong

Last Days of the Mighty Mekong by Brian Eyler

This is somewhat similar to A River at the Center of the World. In both, the author explores the distance of a major Asian river. This book starts from the Tibetan headwaters and works its way down to the Vietnamese delta. The writing is not as good as that of the other book on the Yangtze. This book also suffers from having an "agenda". It is looking at "last days" of the river, so it focuses more on the sentimental past and things that have changed, rather than giving a general view of the river.

Things have changed a lot. Even the "isolated village" at he start that was only accessible by hiking is now accessed primarily via jeeps. Downriver, people have sought to harness the river via many dams. This has provided huge amounts of electrical capacity - much of which exceeds demand. It has also reduced sediment flow and fisheries in the river. The Chinese and the French are the primary "bad guys" here. They have both attempted the technological march forward (either now or a century ago.) The result has impacted the way of life and made things more difficult. Today, Laos has a fancy railroad through unforgiving land to China. Vietnamese are working in factories rather than fishing and farming in the delta. Attempts to improve productivity through technology have not gone well. The progress of technology has provided some benefits, but also a lot of harm.

Down to Earth: Politics in the New Climatic Regime

Down to Earth: Politics in the New Climatic Regime by Bruno Latour

Despite having some good points, the tone of this short books makes it nearly unreadable. The author proposes that elites realize the earth is on a bad and want to suck out all the resources before they die. That view is "globalization-" in his parlance. He complains that ecological parties need to focus on the earth, while many are two left-aligned. However, his proposals seem to come up fairly left. There is also encouragement of local, which could backfire. Purely local solutions could be even worse. If a locations feels it would benefit from climate change, then it would be smart to encourage it.

Losing Our Cool: Uncomfortable Truths About Our Air-Conditioned World (and Finding New Ways to Get Through the Summer)

Losing Our Cool: Uncomfortable Truths About Our Air-Conditioned World (and Finding New Ways to Get Through the Summer) by Stan Cox

Air Conditioning has caught on in a big way. It has allowed people to live comfortably in hotter areas. It has also contributed significantly to global warming. People can live in hot areas without using compressors to cool the air. India has had hundreds of millions of people live in hot climates. Most Sub-Belt cities (even Phoenix!) were settled before air conditioning. However, living conditions were different. Rather than having buildings sealed off, they were left open with features to allow for natural cooling. Schedules were adapted to the heat. Shade trees were valuable coolers.

Today air-conditioning is omnipresent in new construction. Even in the Seattle metro, air conditioning usage has crossed the 50% mark. This is in a coastal area, filled with trees with an the average yearly peak temperature is in the 70s. Yet people have invested in air conditioning for those odd peak days. To make the air conditioning more efficient, some of the "natural cooling" is sacrificed, requiring the air conditioning to run more frequently. (We are lucky to have our "air conditioning" in the form of big shade trees.)

Air conditioning also impair the social environment. Air conditioners are loud. They warm the outside air. They encourage people to be inside in their climate controlled environment rather than outside catching a cool breeze.

Air conditioners are huge greenhouse gas emitters. They consume a large amount of power. This is primarily produced by burning fossil fuels. Other sources, such as nuclear, solar or wind do not emit CO2 in production. However, they do require significant energy to produce. In addition, the refrigerants are orders of magnitude worse. We have gone from flammable (ammonia) to ozone-depleting (CFCs) to significant greenhouse gases. There are alternatives that are not as bad, but they are also not as efficient. 

Some work has helped to make air conditioning more efficient and affordable. However, this is often subject to rebound problem, with savings resulting in more cooling. Window units can be more efficient because they focus the heat on a single room for a short time. However, as more rooms are cooled, energy consumption goes up.

There is contradictory research on the improvement of workers in cooled environments. Productivity is low in super hot environments. However, things get fuzzier down in the 60s and 70s. People are in general fine with a temperature that more closely represents outdoors than an absolute low temperature. (I recall working in China where the building was heated or cooled to make it "comfortable" but not super hot or cold.) In India air conditioners were advertised as improving performance in bed. (I feel it should be the other way around.) Server farms produce huge amounts of heat and demand cooling. 

There are some hopes for improvements in technology. However, the best way for humans to survive is by not living in places hotter than they can handle.

The Efficiency Trap: Finding a Better Way to Achieve a Sustainable Energy Future

The Efficiency Trap: Finding a Better Way to Achieve a Sustainable Energy Future by Steve Hallett

The problem with chasing efficiency is twofold. First, the rebound effect may result in efficiencies being consumed by greater use. Second, we often focus on efficiencies in one area, neglecting the greater expenses in another. Refrigerators have become increasingly efficient. However, they have also become larger. Lighting is more efficient today than it was a 100 years ago, yet we spend much more on lighting. A hybrid car gets more miles per gallon than a gasoline powered car. However, it also requires much greater energy to produce and maintain. (The rare-earth metals needed for the battery are especially problematic.)

The primary topic could be covered in a short article. The rest of the book is primarily blather. The author also takes a very condescending tone towards anybody that he disagrees with (especially Republicans). This reduces the appeal of what should be good for a general audience.

The book does make an interesting point about energy. We have a fixed amount of fossil fuels that will produce a fixed amount of greenhouse gases. Even if we slow the rate of use, we will still have the same climatic impact. Hydro is pretty much tapped. Solar and wind require huge amounts of resources to produce and only produce limited quantities. Coal usage did decline, resulting in impacts on the British empire. Nuclear may have potential. However, it is super expensive now and hasn't become cheaper. The final solution proposed is "small scale" local power generation.

Greta's Story

Greta's Story: The Schoolgirl Who Went on Strike to Save the Planet by Valentina Camerini, translated by Moreno Giovannoni, illustrated by Veronica Carratello

Greta Thunberg was not doing well. She was extremely impacted after learning about climate change in school. She fell into a deep depression after learning that the earth was doomed and we were doing little to stop it. However, she was quiet and her family didn't know what was wrong. Eventually she was diagnosed with Aspergers, which often is associated with people becoming dedicated to single goals. For her, the environment was the goal. She started a school strike at Swedish parliament. Many people later joined her strike. She spoke before many influential people. Her goal was to call attention to the issue, and ask leaders to do what they commited to do to save the environment.

She was in the right place to do what she did. Her parents were actors and musicians. They had some renown and the means and flexibility to support their daughter. She was diagnosed with Aspergers rather than lumped into an "autism" bucket. This contributed to her getting appropriate attention and an understanding of what she was doing. Her personal solutions to climate may be naive. (Driving an electric car may have lower emissions in Sweden, but in Poland where most energy comes from fossil fuels, it is a heavy polluter.) However, her goal is to look at the big picture.

Prosperity without Growth

Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet by Tim Jackson

Our current economic model encourages us to consume, consume, consume. We are constantly seeking new things and disposing of old. We are using large amounts of energy to make our lives easier. Our economy depends on GDP growing. Is this the best?

This book spends a long time describing the economy and identifying the problem. The "solution" is a short bit at the end. The author advocates capping resource use and encouraging more human-scale work. It sounds reasonable, but the details can be a challenge. Will the developed companies just "import" more high energy and resource use from other countries? What about resources that we have not yet identified as valuable? The big challenge is balancing desires with environmental needs.

Silent Spring

Silent Spring by  Rachel Carson

DDT and other pesticides are really bad. They hurt people and animals. Broad chemical pest controls may cause a short term fix, but typically result in a long term harm. We should instead focus on narrowly focussed, less toxic means of reducing pests. Silent Spring has plenty of examples, and is fairly well written. It was an influential book that helped lead to the reduction in DDT use. Alas, the lesson learned was narrow, and we we continue to use different broad-based chemical pest controls with various negative impacts.

Dreamwood

Dreamwood by Heather Mackey

The world of Dreamwood is a fantasy version of 20th century Pacific Northwest. Logging is the big industry. Trains and boats are the primary means of travel. Electricity is starting to come out. The relationship between the natives and the white settlers are strained.

In this setting a bit of magic is set. The protagonist's father is an old time "ghost buster". Unlike others that focus on "magic", he uses science and engineering to help find and remove ghosts. As part of his work he has also encountered some situations with objects that have special powers. He has gone on a trip and left his daughter in a "finishing school". She doesn't like the school and decides to go out to find him. Alas, he is missing, and finding him is not easy.

Then the quest begins. She teams with a boy that helped her out previously. The timber barron helps fund them. He plays an ambiguous role in between good and bad. The forest is being decimated by "rust" and the Dreamwood can help resolve this. However, when they set off on the quest, they are warned to not take anything not offered to them. In the quest, they encounter numerous riches. However, all that focus on taking them meat gruesome fates. Eventually they find her father and the solution to the problems.

The book uses fantasy to bring out the environmental message. We should be careful what we extract in order to live in harmony with the natural environment. Nature may have ways to impact us that we cannot easily understand.

The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World

The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World by Charles C. Mann

Norman Borlaug and William Vogt had very different responses to the question of human population growth. Borlaug launched the green revolution. He found ways to increase the food production capacity. He helped breed high-yielding crops. By applying the proper fertilizer and water with the right breed of crop, farmers can produce much greater yields on smaller land. Vogt looked at the negativity of growth and encouraged reductions in the human footprint.

Borlaug won the Nobel prize. However, his achievements are now being reassessed. While it has helped increase yields, there have also been negative results, ranging from environmental degradation to unemployment and obesity.

Now climate change is a big concern. However, we continue to have wizards looking at ways we can continue to consume as before while limiting our carbon footprint. Maybe now is the time to re-think consumption and look at how we can get by with less.

Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet

Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet by Hannah Ritchie

This book offers a "middle road" to environmental policy. It avoids the "doom and gloom" of some environmentalist rhetoric. It specifically calls out "alarmist rhetoric" as being unfruitful. The author has an optimistic view that we will be able to make it through with our human ingenuity. However, we must act, but we shouldn't waste our time being stupid.

People get focussed on small things that will not provide significant benefit. Sometimes it is even counterproductive. Palm oil is banished from food due to the impact on forests. Then the it is later imported as "green" biofuel. People get hung up on recycling, plastic bags and other small things. However, these don't make a huge difference (and there are trade offs).

Agriculture is one of the more significant sources of emissions. Local food may be marginally better. However, shipping is a very minor part of the energy input. Produce from the other side of the world may be produced cheaper and use less energy overall than local produce that requires intensive "assistance" to grow. Meat production consumes a large amount of energy, with the larger the animal produce a greater amount of "waste energy". (The author even mentions that grain-fed is more efficient than grass fed. Though, I question that. If the area is natural prairie, the animals should be providing the fertilizer that helps the growth with minimal excess energy need.)

Organic agriculture has its place, but fertilizer has become important for feeding the world. Grain spent to feed animals or produce fuels is agriculture that is not used for feeding people. Vertical farms use a huge amount of energy making them less efficient.

The author gave examples of acid rain and the ozone hole as two areas where the world banded together to benefit the environment. Those were two cases  where the harms were readily apparent and a solution was available with minimal change required. Global warming appears a different beast. The problem and harm are both not readily visible. Some reactionaries will point to climate change for every weather event. Deniers will brush it all off. We are left primarily with models. Some areas may benefit. Others will be decimated. Are the models sufficient? There has been a big focus on CO2. But what about other factors? This can be one of the pitfalls of climate studies.

We have been getting more expensive. Out local air is much less polluted than it has been before. (No more smoke from cooking fires!) Beijing is an example of a place that cleaned up the air "for show" for the olympics, then took the steps to get ir really cleaned up for real. We have a number of competing factors in the environment. What about a clean source like nuclear energy? It will be challenging to find complete solutions, but things are not as bad as the doomsayers make out.

The Geography of Risk: Epic Storms, Rising Seas, and the Cost of America's Coasts

Coastal lands have been heavily developed in the last century. These areas are often filled with expensive homes (many of them second homes.) Alas, the areas are susceptible to storms and sea level rising. Many of the areas are essentially built of sand bars. Rather than being abandoned after flooding, these areas are often rebuilt with higher value property replacing the ruined less expensive housing.

The private developers have often outsources the risk in these areas to the government. Private industry had largely backed out of many of these flooded areas. However, the federal government has come in to help support flood insurance. Alas, this program has had huge losses and has supported rebuilding in flooded areas. Beyond this, FEMA has typically provided government assistance to any area in a big disaster. The federal government is subsidizing people to build in flood-prone areas. (Even fiscal conservatives are eager to get federal money when a storm hits their district.) New Jersey seems to be the best at extracting money. There are curious cases of the Corps of Engineers moving sand to the beach, only to have it blow away shortly after. 

What is the fix? There are billions and possibly trillions of dollars of real estate sitting on locations that are likely to be underwater in the next century. Maintaining that land will be extremely expensive. Eventually, they will not be able to be bailed out. Will we gradually move to higher ground, or just continue to rebuild in the same vulnerable locations as we have done?

Small Wonder

After September 11, 2001, Barbara Kingsolver worked on essays as a form of catharsis. Some of the essays are presented here as well as some older essays. Some are extremely personal (one is nearly an autobiography.) She admired the unity in the response to 9/11, but was also troubled by the hatred that arose.

I found the essay discussing evolution and genetic engineering very well written. She called out those criticizing the health effects of genetic engineering as illogical. Instead, the problem is with the resilience of crops. Evolution has led to a great diversity even in a single species. As we engineer crops to have a few desired traits, we can end up with a strong monoculture. These leaves our crops subject to unknown diseases. 

Future genetic engineering can try to fight this. But we are stuck with a continual fight. With natural evolution, there are many redundant traits that are present, but not needed. Once the stress comes to the system, these may begin to dominate. This serves as an "insurance policy". (For instance, in Arizona, there are "desert annuals" that will wait to germinate later. This allows for resilience in case there is a lack of water.) Another issue is that many plants are genetically engineered to include natural pesticides. This ends up spreading and killing off beneficial pollinators. Because the crops are widespread, the damage is also. 

These issues are with genetic engineering in the "best case". There are also further problems with the implementation. Some seeds are made intentionally to require purchasing new seeds every year. They also end up requiring more purchases of fertilizer and pesticides. This can cause big issues.