The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy

The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy by Scott Sumner

This book had interesting somewhat counter-intuitive views of the impacts of monetary policy. I didn't fully grasp all the details, but felt it could be a good way to look at things. "Easy" money is a key way that the government can help the economy. However, interest rates are often only a part of this. Often the anticipation of rates can be more critical than the actual rates set themselves. Common explanations we hear of for economic crashes are often side correlations. For instance, housing production had already stalled before the great recession. Some "fixes" may also make matters worse. (Encouraging unions and high wages at the start of the Great Depression likely stalled employment gains and production.) Macroeconomics uses the same terminology as microeconomics to describe something very different. Getting the right policies in place can help keep things humming along well, while the wrong policies can make things worse.

The author is very cautious about his beliefs. While he holds them strongly, he also feels that common culture is not likely to take them up until ready. He also notes that "liberal economics" will almost always "win", though the definition of "liberal economics" is always changing. Could we really keep the economy moving around nicely for a long term? Or would the thought of bubbles and crashes mean they must occur?

Dead Souls

Dead Souls by Nikolai Gogol, translated by Richard Pevear

Dead Souls pokes fun of Russian culture and bureaucracy. The protagonist goes about the country attempting to purchase "dead souls" from landowners. These are people that have died, yet are still on the tax roles. He believes that owing a great number can help him to get loans and be rich. He also has a scheme to create a fake will to inherit the lands of a rich lady. Alas, that scheme falls apart because he forgot to cancel previous wills. This second part is a bit fragmentary, with sections missing and the end cutting off in mid-sentence. The tone is much less serious than other historic Russian novels.

Deep River

Deep River: A Novel by Karl Marlantes

This book explores the history of a few related Finnish people who came to the Pacific Northwest around the turn of the 20th century. They were primarily attracted by the logging industry. It was a tough industry with hard work and serious chances of injury and death. Men were attracted to the income with some looking at the chance of going on their own. One woman was attracted with the possibility of organizing a large union to help the loggers. The book slowly goes through their experiences and struggles with the local impacts of widespread events like wards, union activities and prohibition. At times it has interludes describing events instead of having the characters live through them. Even so, the book is quite long and it can be difficult to tell the characters apart. The historical settings can almost be identified, but even parts of that have been fictionalized. The female union organizer gets a bit too much coverage, while I would like to see more coverage of the evolution of the society from rough-and-tumble to legitimate towns.

The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip

The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip by Stephen Witt

After ending with the exploration of doomsday AI scenarios, the book ends with the disclaimer that it cannot be used to train AI. Ironic or prescient? 

I found this book a better exploration of Nvidia than Nvidia Way. While that book focussed on business process, this book puts the emphasis on the people and what is being achieved. The founding of Nvidia and the evolution from graphics to GPU and AI is covered. However, more emphasis is given to the AI part here. Are we moving into dangerous territory now? 

Absalom, Absalom!

Absalom, Absalom! by William Faulkner

The novel fails like it should be a drama with a great musical score. The novel straddles the civil war, with Thomas Sutpen coming to Mississippi and building up a great plantation. He has strict racial views and disowns a wife and child after he learns that she has some black blood. He desperately wants a true heir. His next son seems good, but he flees after murdering his half-brother with white blood. Another woman births him a daughter. He is upset with this, which eventually leads to the woman's grandfather murdering Sutpen. The runaway heir later returns in tatters and dies in a fire. The dynasty is officially gone. The story is told from the view of people with connections to the Sutpen in the early 1900s. The strict southern beliefs end up leading to a similar downfall for a man. The narrator (now at Harvard in the early 1900s) ends by saying he does not hate the south. The book has great pageantry, though it is difficult to grasp the plot.

How Finland Survived Stalin: From Winter War to Cold War, 1939-1950

How Finland Survived Stalin: From Winter War to Cold War, 1939-1950 by Kimmo Rentola translated by Richard Robinson

Finland had an odd position during World War II. They were aligned with Germany, but never part of the Axis powers. They fought the Winter War against Russia. German alignment was seen as a necessary defensive measure. Stalin had underestimated the ability of Finnish army and suffered significantly during the hostilities. The Finns paid were willing to pay reparations and cede territory. However, they were not pushovers. They refused to become a Soviet satellite. They maintained their culture and political system. They were one of the few European capitals that was never occupied during the war. Stalin seems to have some respect for the Finns and was willing to let them be. The book was original written in Finnish and relied on many Russian sources that are now locked away again due to the Ukraine war.

The Unworthy: A Novel

The Unworthy: A Novel by Agustina Bazterrica, translated by Sarah Moses 

The novel gradually unfolds a post-apocalyptic pseudo-religious convent. The women aspire for various positions there and must adhere to strict rules in the process. We learn of the background of the narrator and the rules of the strict rules of the "convent". The world has fallen apart with places like Great Britain under water. The narrator lost most everything, including her pet. Later, she has a romantic relationship with another woman. After an upper-level woman dies, the narrator learns more negative secrets of the society. The story is short, with a dark, pessimistic view of the future world.

Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy

Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy by Carola Binder

The history of inflation and deflation is riddled with attempts at price controls. From the time of the revolutionary war, price controls were debated and sometimes put into place. Price controls had some impact on stabilization, but also created distortions in the market as well as made winners and losers. A national bank and monetary policy helps provide stability but exchange rates also caused distortions. (especially when values of silver and gold differed.) A strong, independent central bank can provide stability. However, it is difficult for politicians to resist tampering. FDR went to great extents to preserve his price controls. Policies to strengthen unions while controlling prices probably hurt the economy and employment (while benefiting those that kept jobs) Price controls stopped after the end of the war, but were tried again later without much success. People don't like it when things look more expensive and they always try to blame profit taking. Companies will look for an excuse to raise prices. They might be accused of short term high profits even if they don't make up for previous loses. Keeping inflation under control takes work, but does make people happy.

Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things

Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things by Dan Ariely

During Covid, Dan Ariely got attacked by those opposed to Covid policy. He had given some satirical discussion about healthcare that were taken out of context and used as bait. His "half beard" made him recognizable and subject to ridicule by those that did not like current Covid policy. Many of these people would latch on to "conspiracy theories" and could not be convinced otherwise. Ariely attempted to find out what drove people to believe irrational things.

There seemed to be a pattern to "misbelief." People would start with some objection. They may feel wronged or didn't like how things were happening. Then they would go online and after a few searches they would find some sites that seemed to support their position. Then they would dig deeper. Other sources would provide deeper validation. These would often start with some degree of credibility, but be missing certain features of respectability. (It may be something that looks like a medical organization, but is actually just a propaganda group.) Then people find their community. Others support their belief and provide the support they need. The community members often have an outward portrayal of intellectual humility, but inwardly are not willing to change their own mind, but they want others to change their mind. They see others that change their mind or even align with the enemy as outcasts. That makes them unwilling to change their own minds even if they realize they may be mistaken.

The book focuses on the fringe misbelievers. However, the same symptoms are present throughout society. Even in science, the orthodoxy may be insular and not intellectually humble enough to accept changes. Most conspiracy theories start with at least some grain of truth. When mainstream thought accepts falsehoods as a way of getting its point across it opens up the conflict. During the outset of Covid, government officials initially said masks were not useful and that schools should stay open. Later officials pivoted, despite the science not changing. Officials knew that masks helped slow the spread, but used falsehoods to preserve the supply. They also knew it was best to keep schools open due to past pandemic experience. However, they ended up closing them in the name of stopping the spread more due to emotional appeals. "Science" was used to back up what were primarily political decision. Science against the orthodoxy was discredited. This forced many "underground" and did more to harm outcomes. (If the government had lied about lockdowns, why trust them regarding vaccines?) Today, we often see any extreme weather event blamed on climate change even if there is not justification. Is this attempt of public persuasion just enabling climate change denial?

Season of Migration to the North

Season of Migration to the North by Tayeb Salih

Somebody goes back to their home in Sudan. There things happen. He encounters people from other places like England. There are conflicts as well as intersection between east and west. It is rather short, not really bad, but not really great either.

Inner Excellence: Train Your Mind for Extraordinary Performance and the Best Possible Life

Inner Excellence: Train Your Mind for Extraordinary Performance and the Best Possible Life by Jim Murphy

The author bills this as something more than sports psychology. It is something like "sports performance and life skills". You should focus on the experience. You are working with the others that you are competing against. The goal is to maximize your experience and have fun regardless of what others do. It is important to be self aware and adapt. Believing in yourself and not falling into a case of doubt helps you succeed. There are plenty of examples of sports figures that have fallen apart mentally as well as those that have lived for the moment and succeeded against odds. The audiobook includes some reviews with these figures at the end. The book seemed good as I was listening to it, but in retrospect it felt fairly standard.

Everyday Freedom: Designing the Framework for a Flourishing Society

Everyday Freedom: Designing the Framework for a Flourishing Society by Philip K. Howard

The United States has become so wrapped up in blame and liability that the ability to make good decisions has been lost. Organizations make policies and people implement the policies. If something wrong happens, that is seen as a defect in the policy and it must be changed. We must go through long slow processes to get anything done. It is expected that anybody can voice a concern and stop processes. As long as people follow the rule book they are seen as free from liability. This can lead to a bad status quo remaining while preventing much good. Much of the regulatory framework was built in response to what was seen as problematic behavior. However, it has now been carried away to such an extent that bad behavior can hide behind rules.

What is the solution? Give people power and judgement to make decisions. Replace a detailed rule book with principles that must be followed. Let humans make decisions instead of expecting a rule book to do it all. It all makes so much sense. Though to get it to work, we need legal reform. Bad things may happen. An organization should not be held to multi-million dollar legal decisions because the results of something did not end up perfect.

Zeno's Conscience

Zeno's Conscience by Italo Svevo

The novel is framed as a memoir written by a man undergoing psychiatric treatment. His psychiatrist sees it as a way to help the process. It starts with him talking about his failures to quit smoking. He later delves into his family life as well as other love experiences. He has challenges with his life and doing what is best. The novel was good at first, but I gradually got lost as he rambled more.

The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice

The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice by Jennifer Doleac

We are wasting a lot of time and money with criminal justice policies that don't work. Meanwhile, cheap solutions are staring us in the face and not being followed. The author is an equal opportunity critic, with many favorite right wing and left wing policies criticized. Mostly using natural experiments, she studies various measures and finds those that work and those that don't work. Most of the results seem counter-intuitive, such as the fact that children of incarcerated parents tend to be better off than children in similar situations where the parent is not incarcerated.

Left wing policies to help those stuck in the crime cycle often do not help. Baning the job application "checkbox" for crimianl convications makes it harder for ex-cons to find jobs, especially if they are black. Heavy wrap-around programs on release result in higher recidivism rates. Being "soft on crime" doesn't help the criminal or society. Right wing policies like broken-windows policing and strict monitoring and cutting off food stamp eligibility for food stamps hurt.

What helps? Letting first time offenders off easy does not disrupt their lives and results in fewer repeat offenses. Going through the process of getting arrested is often enough of a negative experience. Adding everyone to a DNA database, even after the most minor offenses also reduces the likelihood of future crimes. Electronic monitoring instead of more time in jail helps. Giving criminals more money when released and keeping them eligible for social welfare programs works. Requiring sobriety checks to maintain release encourages treatment programs.

In general, we should have consequences for criminal activity. These should be expected and consistent. They should also only escalate with repeat offenses. Prison is a huge disruption for people's lives and should be used only when needed. Very focussed efforts should be made to reintroduce them to society. On release, it is best to fully integrate in society, separate from other former prisoners. Don't try to solve all problems at once.

The proposed solutions tend to anger those vested in certain schemes. Is this a case of those benefiting from the status quo wanting to keep their funding rather than do what is best society? 

To Explain the World: The Discovery of Modern Science

To Explain the World: The Discovery of Modern Science by Steven Weinberg

The author attempted to write something innovative describing how the ability to do science came about, but ended up with a typical history of science. The Arabs were holding the torch of science, but they didn't make the final push of the scientific revolution. People needed to learn to ask the right questions to get the right answers. They broke down things in controlled areas to get things that were explainable in the way we know. These things had to be shared. That is how we got to what we know as science today. It seems the best we can do. However, will people in the future treat it as we treat Astrology and Alchemy? Both of those were given scientific credence before they were treated as pseudo-science. The book concludes with Copernicus, Galileo and Newton. They were treated as the originators of modern science, yet they still had some traditional beliefs.

The Unnamable

The Unnamable by Samuel Beckett

Somebody is trapped in an odd existence and wonders what is going on with him and the outside world. It is a weird rambling experience. I found this one more accessible than the others in the trilogy. Trying to find a plot is next to impossible, but the rambling is interesting.

Cleanup on Aisle Five: Essential Work, Poverty Wages, and the View from Behind the Supermarket Register

Cleanup on Aisle Five: Essential Work, Poverty Wages, and the View from Behind the Supermarket Register by Ann Larson

A labor organizer takes a job at a supermarket during the pandemic and then writes about the experience. What do you think the result would be? It felt like the author already had the answers in mind before she started. The workers must organize. Right to work laws need to go away to allow it. She should disobey things from up high to favor the workers. (In one bit of humility, she did realize this was a bad option after doing it for a while.)

The author works at an anonymous corporate grocery store in Salt Lake City. Various anecdotes of the experience are covered. There are plenty of anecdotes, but they could just as well be the work of fiction. Management makes appearances here and there. Scheduling can be a challenge, with many workers quitting or even not showing up. Self-checkout machines are given a bad rap. (Workers do not have as much casual human interaction and need to walk around on their feet.) The book talks about the history of supermarkets and how they evolved. They helped cut costs and eliminated racists haggling. The author also does not like electronic store tags. (Her concern is for the ability to give different customers different prices - what about the ability to make sure the price on the shelf is always correct?) On one hand, she would like for no changes to occur in supermarkets, while on the other she would like for many changes to make workers' experience better. The stories and history are interesting, but the analysis drags on.

The Book of Disquiet

The Book of Disquiet by Fernando Pessoa, translated by Richard Zenith

The book is structured as the random thoughts of a Portuguese bookkeeper and aspiring writer. Though the author died in 1935, this book was not published until 1982. He muses on the culture and the life, providing armchair discussions of history and philosophy. He explores the concepts of joy and culture. The religion that served as the base of society was cut down, leaving nothing much in its place. Postmodernism is seen as just "anti" without any strong coherence to itself. Are dreams or reality better? The book has little organization, but is filled with interesting thoughts.

Ministry for the Future

The Ministry for the Future: A Novel by Kim Stanley Robinson

This is a modern version of the classic utopian novel. The author zeroes in on one area they want to change. They propose drastic changes to enter their utopia. They assume everything else will proceed as planned and other areas will only improve for the good. It is comical how many parts were just missed or projected wrongly in old books.

This book starts with a massive heat wave in Indian. It is more than people can handle. People are dying. Indian is decides to act on its own and use geo-engineering to cool the earth. The rest of the world has agreed to reduce carbon, but they are slow to do it. The Ministry for the Future is an organization that is supposed to help drive the earth towards the future. However, eco-terrorist groups seem to have a bigger impact. They assassinate business and political leaders they don't like. They use weapons to take out military bases and polluters. They magically manage to stop before they get too carried away. (They must have some amazing will-power that other revolutionaries have not.) The world then creates a new carbon currency to help reduce emissions. This also encourages massive geoengineering efforts that in the end lead to actual reductions in emissions. The human population becomes increasingly equitable and hardly anyone has kids, with the human population declining significantly.

This Utopia is easy to pick apart right now. The terrorists group would either get out of control or get squashed. It is almost impossible for a terrorist-led revolution to stop at just the right place. The same goes with geo-engineering. Things could quickly get out of hand and lead to an accelerating ice age. Focussing on carbon alone may also miss many other areas of global impact that are much harder to manage. Even human population declines due to external events (like wars and disasters) often result in post-event baby booms equalizing the population. Good thing that this is a book rather than government policy.

Malone Dies

Malone Dies by Samuel Beckett

I wanted to like this book, but could not understand what was going on. Malone was dying. He was also going crazy. It was hard to follow with the accented reader.

Kin: A Novel

Kin: A Novel by Tayari Jones

Two "orphaned" black girls grow up in Jim Crow south. One was abandoned by her mother. The other's father murdered her mother. They are friends in their youth, but their paths diverge. Vernice attends Spelman college and marries into a wealthy family. Annie has a more blue-collar life and works in a club and attempts to find her mother. She is first told her mother died, but later found she was still alive - with a child that shared her name. Her fiancé dumps and she gives into her boss's moves. Things don't go well and she loses her job and gets pregnant. She goes to Vernice to get help. She gets an illegal abortion, but dies from internal bleeding. The book fades away at the end with Vernice and her reckoning with her past. These people had rough lives, but they tried to make the best of their situation.

Unsong

Unsong by Scott Alexander (audio version)

Scott Alexander has a cult-like following on his blog (Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten). He writes a lot and elicits a huge number of comments. This book was originally serialized over the span of a couple years on the blog. It has the feel of a work full of inside jokes. 

The book is an alternative history starting from the 1960s. The mission to the moon broke an important crystal surrounding the earth and started messing up the magic. Things started going wrong in various ways. Angels, demons and other religious figures are real and heavily involved in earth. Words have great power. Saying the right word can have real actions. (In one scene, the President burns up because somebody hacked a teleprompter to get him to say "light myself on fire" word.) Companies have set up ways to find words - and then copyrighted the words. This has caused problems as others are not permitted to use them - even if they would help a lot.

The book goes through many digressions at it explores possible kabbalistic interpretations of people, places and things. San Francisco is similar to Jerusalem, with many areas having words that match Jewish names. In one scene, a character goes through a deep theological analysis of the song "American Pie". He is only stopped by someone taking this discussion in other ways.

The book is very long and has a "blog feel". There is something of a plot with the rise of a fallen angel and the conflict with the world. However, that is of minor importance compared to the string of short episodes. Good angels are busy trying to "debug" the functionality of earth. Hell comes out in the open and partners with countries in earth. Historic episodes take place in this weird world, though often with more obvious manipulation. It would not be hard to read some sections out of order.

The audiobook was prepared as a podcast. The narration is pretty well done, but the volume can be variable.

Children of the Alley: A Novel

Children of the Alley: A Novel by Naguib Mahfouz translated by Peter Theroux 

Also known as Children of Gebelawi. The novel uses a Cairo slum to provide an allegory of the history of humanity, with stand ins for various religious figures (Adam, Moses, Jesus, Mohamad) and science. I missed the whole allegory part and just saw it as a good story. People are tied to the alley, but struggle to grow out of it. They often see being a gangster as a good outcome. Some people do rise out of it, but it is tough for them to return. There is also a distant overseer that manages the inheritance. The people struggle to grow, but have a tendency to return to the base behavior they are used to.

How the World Made the West: A 4,000 Year History

How the World Made the West: A 4,000 Year History by Josephine Quinn

What were the influences of modern western civilization. It is common to trace it through the Greeks, Romans and Hebrews. However, many other groups influenced our modern culture. This book explores many of these sources. Alas, the author has a big axe to grind with the term "culture" and spends too much time attacking some definition of culture and common understandings of the growth of culture.

Football

Football by Chuck Klosterman

Football is the most popular sport in the United States. It dominates the TV ratings. The USA vs. Belgium world cup soccer game was the top rated non-NFL sports broadcast, and didn't come close to NFL playoff ratings. It was even behind two Thanksgiving day broadcasts. The Super bowl is always the most popular TV broadcast. Even Canadians are more likely to watch the super bowl than the Canadian Football Grey Cup Championship. The "defects" of football work to its advantage. There is intense action and then a lot of time to figure out what happened. The full game cannot be played casually. The "casual" versions like flag football are fundamentally different.

Football's great popularity is sowing the seeds of its downfall. College football is professionalizing, reducing the strong attachments that students would have to their team. At the lower levels, the dangers are driving parents away from letting their kids play. Outside the south, high school football has become less important. Football is dominating casual fans, but not producing new die hards. It is a conservative bastion in a liberalizing world. People will eventually lose interest and move on to something else. Horse racing was once an extremely popular spectator sport. Today, it is shadow of itself with a few niche events remaining. In the past horses were part of everyone's regular life. Not so anymore. Other dangers could impact football. A death on the field remains a possibility. Sports gambling is helping to increase interest now, but could also create issues. Professional football only surpassed baseball in the 1960s as the most popular American sport. Today, soccer is closing the gap among youth. How much longer will football dominate?