Under a White Sky: The Nature of the Future

Under a White Sky: The Nature of the Future by Elizabeth Kolbert

Humans of gone to great effort to engineer nature to their designs. While this has often worked well in the short term, the long term is quite a different story. There are many cases of plants or animals that were introduced to help with a local issue, only to have caused even greater issues. People have also built many structures to combat one problem only to have another problem surface. The water control structures in Louisiana have helped prevent floods (when they work). Yet, the floods are what deposited sediment to keep the land.

After discussing the many unintended consequences of engineering the planet, the book pivots to climate change. We have spewed so much carbon into the atmosphere that we are impacting the climate. By some accounts, even if we stop all carbon emissions we are still on a bad path. That leaves reducing carbon in the air as a potential solution. How could that go wrong? The book first explores various carbon sequestering schemes in a positive light. Then puts on the cautious hat. Humanity does not have a good record looking at all the long-term consequences and impacts of the big projects. Alas, we are still continuing down the route. Will switching to electric cars really make a difference when the freeways themselves are impacting ecosystems? Could carbon captures just encourage more bad behavior? Or will it lead to a negative feedback loop in the other direction? Climate change does not have easy solutions.

The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy

The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy by Scott Sumner

This book had interesting somewhat counter-intuitive views of the impacts of monetary policy. I didn't fully grasp all the details, but felt it could be a good way to look at things. "Easy" money is a key way that the government can help the economy. However, interest rates are often only a part of this. Often the anticipation of rates can be more critical than the actual rates set themselves. Common explanations we hear of for economic crashes are often side correlations. For instance, housing production had already stalled before the great recession. Some "fixes" may also make matters worse. (Encouraging unions and high wages at the start of the Great Depression likely stalled employment gains and production.) Macroeconomics uses the same terminology as microeconomics to describe something very different. Getting the right policies in place can help keep things humming along well, while the wrong policies can make things worse.

The author is very cautious about his beliefs. While he holds them strongly, he also feels that common culture is not likely to take them up until ready. He also notes that "liberal economics" will almost always "win", though the definition of "liberal economics" is always changing. Could we really keep the economy moving around nicely for a long term? Or would the thought of bubbles and crashes mean they must occur?

The Echo Wife

The Echo Wife by Sarah Gailey

In this near-future world, cloning is fairly common. Famous figures are cloned to help protect them. The clones are specifically made inferior and cannot reproduce. The lead character, Dr. Evelyn Caldwell is a cloning researcher who has broken up with her husband Nathan. Her ex had wanted a child and the perfect wife. He had been creating clones of Evelyn with the characteristics he desired. After a dozen failures, he had created Martine who seemed to be the perfect wife. She was able to become pregnant with his child. However, they got into a big fight and Martine killed Nathan. Evelyn and Martine used their knowledge to dispose of the original body and create a Nathan clone. Martine later became unhinged when she found the remains of the other failed clones. They decide the best thing to do would to fake Martine's suicide (using another clone) and then have Martine escape to live with Evelyn, unbeknownst to Nathan. Evelyn offers to take care of Martine's baby (by secretly bringing it to its mom). How do ethics work in the world of cloning? Is a cloned being human or a biological product? 

The Love Hypothesis

The Love Hypothesis by Ali Hazelwood

A girl runs into a guy when she is visiting campus. She thinks he is a grad student. He gives advice that helps her choose her future path. She doesn't realize that he is actually a professor and he had feelings for her also. She later chooses to kiss a random guy to "allow" her best friend to date her boyfriend. This ends up being the professor. But neither of them realized it at the time. They decide to carry on "fake dating" for a while. They are both oblivious to each other's feelings. It finally comes to a head when they agree to share a hotel room at a conference (in a Platonic relationship.) Things end up being not so platonic. Then there is the episode where the professor's old friend ends up being a scumbag and the professor gets in a fight with him. It makes for a welle-executed, very typical romantic comedy. You jus wish the main characters would stop behaving like middle schoolers and talk about their feelings.

Recovery: How We Can Create a Better, Brighter Future After a Crisis

Recovery: How We Can Create a Better, Brighter Future After a Crisis by Andrew Wear

Bad things happen. We can choose how to behave afterwards. In many cases, people have recovered from tragedy to create something much better than existed before. Germany grew to be a power after war devastation. The roaring twenties boomed after the Spanish Flu. There are many cases of cities that had a big growth spurt after the destruction of a fire. The book includes many examples of positive recovery and looks forward to future improvements as society deals with struggle. It has the tone of a grandfather discussing the past.

Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion

Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert B. Cialdini

This is a fairly long book that details a few key principles of persuasions. The concept are very well illustrated with examples from well known figures as well as individuals. Examples include people using these as well as having these used on them. The use includes time when both parties benefit as well as those when one party clearly achieves advantage. There are also "scam" uses that can be identified so that you don't fall victim. 

Many of the principles rely on variations of reciprocity. If you give somebody something, they often feel a need to give you something back. A free sample will often encourage somebody to buy something. Doing a favor to somebody will make them more likely to do something for you. Level-setting can be a variation on this. Giving somebody a lower priced option after starting higher gives them a sense of getting a favor from you. Sending cards or remembering other people helps make them more likely to do you a favor later.

People use "shortcuts" as clues to make quick decisions. High prices are often an indicator of quality and could encourage sales - especially if they are later discounted. Long lines also indicate something that is in demand. (This is one that marketers can often "game" by paying people to stand in line.) Expert appeals are also a common shortcut, even if the expert lacks expertise in the field. "TV Doctors" often pitch medical products - even while admitting they just play one on TV. A scientist's opinions are often valued by the public - even in fields outside their expertise.

Urgency can be used and abused. If it is the last item, you may be worried about the fear of missing out. (This is also an area that is often faked.)

People also like to be internally consistent. They have a desire to do something that is morally correct. Scammers can often take advantage of this to get people (especially elderly) to "correct" what seems to be a problem.

Group connection is another factor that can help persuade. In World War II, the Jews helped seek protection in Japan by appealing to their mutual history as "Asians". Salespeople will often do best when selling to people within their same group (whether it be ethnicity, religion, or even college attended.) Some salespeople are especially good at finding similarities to help sell. (This can also backfire if group is not quite right.) In one example, a door to door salesman would mention neighbors he sold to. He was able to further maximize by "matching". If he was selling to a couple, he would mention another couple. If he was selling to a housewife, he would just mention another housewife. This helped make the purchasers feel more willing to make the decision at the time.

The more commitments involved in a group, the greater the attachment. "Hazing" helps increase the ties to a group due to the work and challenge involved. Society now works at stopping hazing. However, this may just lead to it going underground or involving other ways to have this relationship.

The persuasion principles seem simple, but can be more complex in practice. The author gives many examples where he has fallen victim to persuasion tactics - even knowing that they exist. We may know various tactics, but it takes work to practice them authentically.

The Dating Dare: A Novel

The Dating Dare: A Novel by Jayci Lee

Two Korean-Americans meet at a wedding. They fall for each other immediately, but both are reluctant to enter a relationship. They play a "game" where they will go on four dates without falling for each other. He has to go to Paris for a great photography opportunity in a short time, so they know it will only be temporary. Alas, this is a romance, so of course they will end up together. They also discover that they each have similar backgrounds and have been burned in the past. It is lighthearted without getting too spicy, though language is far from clean. For a romance, it is much better than the romatasy slop out there.

The Butterfly Impact: Resilience, Resets, and Ripples

The Butterfly Impact: Resilience, Resets, and Ripples by Mark Brigg

This is a fairly generic business book. I missed the whole butterfly metaphor, even though it was brought up multiple times in the book. It took a turn towards superficial diversity that didn't help. As a whole the book was not bad, but did not really add anything.

Cracking the PM Career: The Skills, Frameworks, and Practices to Become a Great Product Manager

Cracking the PM Career: The Skills, Frameworks, and Practices to Become a Great Product Manager by Gayle Laakmann McDowell and Jackie Bavaro

What is a Product Manager? The role is primarily present in technology companies. It primarily involves providing direction and managing a "product" rather than people. Product managers don't have people authority and must rely on "soft" authority to get done. They often have both a computer science and business background. This book is written with Silicon Valley in mind. There are discussions of big tech, startups and VCs. The entire career is covered, with expectations for fresh-out-of-school product managers up to those that have transitioned to CEO. Product management is most often a "mid-career" position. People will transition into it and later move to management. It involves working both outwards to understand the market and customers as well as inward to the development teams. It can be a fun for those interested. The book ends with interview advice and bios from a number of people that have worked as product managers.

Transport for Humans: Are We Nearly There Yet?

Transport for Humans: Are We Nearly There Yet? by Pete Dyson and Rory Sutherland

Transportation planning often focuses on speeding up time. This is great for freight, but fails humans. Psychology can inform planners of the best way to improve systems for humans. The conditions of the transport and status may make a greater impact than the actual speed. Counteritivite improvements may be difficult in practice, even though they would theoretically help. (A variable speed limit that is lower than the maximum would help everyone to get there faster at a consistent speed. However, drivers have difficulty seeing how driving slower can make them faster.)

Planners often focus on the part of the system they control, without looking at a whole system. A train operator may shave 5 minutes off the travel time. However, a user would need to add time to travel to the train station and to arrive there early for security and check in. Reducing those times would reduce travel time without added expense.

The comfort of the transportation can also make a big difference. The Concord was fast. The 747 and descendents are much slower, but they have lay-flat beds in first class. The wealthy ended up opting for comfort over speed. Trains with clean windows or seat-back trays provide a more comfortable experience and make travel time feel shorter.

Numbers can also be misleading. A small speed improvement on a slower road will provide greater benefit than a similar improvement on a fast road. People don't care about "average" travel time. They want to know if their trip will arrive on time. Deviations and unexpected changes are of significant concern. Providing accurate up-date status on train arrivals greatly improves travel experience.

Will transit planners actually shift their focus to making transportation for people? Will they actually focus on making a good walking and biking experience for entire routes? It has yet to be seen.

Between Two Kingdoms: A Memoir of a Life Interrupted

Between Two Kingdoms: A Memoir of a Life Interrupted by Suleika Jaouad

The author partied a lot as a young adult and jumped around from boyfriend to boyfriend. She decided to get dedicated to work by taking a job in France. She also entered into a longer term relationship. Then she discovered she had cancer. Treatment was a long process. Her boyfriend and her parents provided a huge amount of selfless service. She did not appreciate it enough. She found herself distancing herself from them. She had started writing about her battle with cancer as she was going through the process. It took a while to realize the impacts it had on loved ones. She was not the only one to have life interrupted. There were also the challenges of dealing with life after cancer. With so much focus on beating it, it is easy to lose track of the post-cancer life. She goes on a cross country road trip to try to find herself post-cancer. Discussions with many people help her learn more about herself and relationships with others. Do we spend enough time looking at the social and other non-medical impacts of fighting disease. What is the point of licking a disease if it destroys lives?

From Rails to Trails: The Making of America's Active Transportation Network

From Rails to Trails: The Making of America's Active Transportation Network by Peter Harnik

The rails to trails program had initially picked up some steam in the midwest. Railroad right of ways were "railbanked" to prevent development and allow for trails. Seattle's Burke-Gilman trail was one of the first trails built in the heart of a city. New York City's High Line and Chicago's 606 were popular elevated urban rail to trail conversions. Successful rail to trail conversions require advocacy, planning and government support. There are often challenges to overcome. Sometimes nearby property owners are afraid of potential crime or decreased property values. It may take some effort to convince them that trails almost always increase property values. Other times they expect to be able to use the trails for their own purpose. Railbanking "banks" the right of way for future rail use, prohibiting development, but allowing trails. There may also be challenges with bridges and passings. There are often regulations that require removing the bridges when a path is abandoned - however these are some of the beneficial bits of infrastructure on trails. Work may be needed to retain or rebuild these bridges. 

Rails with trails can also work well. With these the biggest challenge is the railroads fear of liability. Even when they are relieved of liability they have trouble overcoming this fear. For trail users, a trail next to an active train line remains much safer than a road filled with cars. 

Rail to trail conversions attract various users. They are typically flat and direct and have few road crossings. This makes them ideal for bike commuters. Runners, snowmobile users and horse riders also are heavy users of trails. Some traverse long distances and are great for bikepacking expeditions. Others are short urban lines. Some are open at all times while others are more restricted. Sometimes a trail changes character as it passes through different regions. We are getting more trails available.

The author has been quite involved in the rails to trails movement and covers many of the challenges and successes in the book. There seems to be strong support for trails, but there still remain opponents and financial constraints.

Linked

Linked by Gordon Korman

After a swastika appears in a rural middle school, the school adopts special training classes. After more swastikas appear, the school attracts the notice of a popular vlogger. The talk of anti-semitism also is the opening for a popular boy (Link) to learn from his mother that grandma was an orphan in Europe because her family was killed in the holocaust. The family only found this Jewish ancestry recently. The boys talks to the one Jewish girl at school (who is there because her parents are working on a nearby dinosaur dig). After that discussion, he decides to work towards a Bar Mitzvah at a synagogue in a nearby town. He also attracts other students to a student council meeting where they decide to make a paper chain with a link representing every Jew that died in the holocaust. The project ends up attracting worldwide attention due to the vlogger who has now set up shop in town. They do complete the chain and eventually caught a girl who had done all but the first swastika. However, the vlogger then has one more bombshell. Link, the boy undergoing a bar mitzvah, was the one that painted the first swastika. He is suspended. He is very repentant and makes peace with the school and Jewish community and has all attend his ceremony. 

While Link is well-developed and undergoes realistic growth, other characters are caricatured. The swastika girl suddenly gets a bit of history only to be an unrepentant racist who happens to leave town after getting suspended. (She obviously had spent a lot of effort planning all of these - why is she such a throwaway.) The vlogger was needlessly demonized. Individual students were playing towards type (art club, jock, student government, etc.) rather than being more fully developed. Did the author intend to paint a color character with a black and white supporting cast?

Learn Korean: 3000 essential words and phrases

Learn Korean: 3000 essential words and phrases by Collins Dictionaries

This audiobook is exactly as described. It went through the 3000 words and phrases, giving the English and then saying the Korean twice with space to repeat. The English words are all British English. I felt I was learning British almost as much as Korean. For modern terms like the "boot" of a car, the Korean word was the American word ("trunk") with a Korean accent. Many of the "older" words (such as months) had some clear Chinese influence. The audiobook does have some logical groups, but doesn't have any progression or context. It may be useful for refreshing vocabulary, but does not really sufficient for learning.

Book Wars: The Digital Revolution in Publishing

Book Wars: The Digital Revolution in Publishing by John B. Thompson

I was only able to find a paper copy of this book on the digital revolution in book publishing. The author his plenty of knowledge on the topic. Alas, the book is very repetitive. (The last two chapters both rehashed the same topics that had been previously discussed earlier.) The most interesting parts are the detailed company case studies. The author provides detailed case studies for various start ups and their approaches. The digital revolution has changed the way books are written, produced and distributed. It has enabled crowdfunding, publishing on demand and self-publishing. Audiobooks have also exploded in popularity. Amazon has established a dominant position as a seller of physical books, audiobooks and ebooks. It also had detailed knowledge on customers and their preferences. Inkshares, Unbound, Smashwords and Wattpad are all explored in the book. However, since this book was written in 2021, Unbound has gone bellyup and not paid it's authors. Smashwords has been acquired by Draft2Digital. Does leave Amazon as the best self publishing route? Ebooks rose significantly in popularity and then leveled off. What will the future be? Will paper books continue to last a long time? The book was written before the rise of AI. How will this impact publishing? Will it be even more difficult to get through the noise? 

King Sejong Invents an Alphabet

King Sejong Invents an Alphabet by Carol Kim, illustrated by Cindy Kang

From boyhood, King Sejong loved to read. He wanted his subjects to be able to read and write also. However, it was difficult because they had to use Chinese characters. He invented an alphabet that represented how sounds were made that would be easy for everyone to learn. After many centuries this caught on and became the official alphabet of Korea. The book tells the simple tale and then has a brief historical explanation at the end. There is also a small explanation of the alphabet (though I wish there would have been more.)

The Science of Abolition: How Slaveholders Became the Enemies of Progress

The Science of Abolition: How Slaveholders Became the Enemies of Progress by Eric Herschthal

Science and technology became adopted by abolitionists as they advocated the end of slavery. With technology it would be possible to do more with fewer people. Equality and freedom override ideas of "inferior blacks" that had been used to justify slavery. However, slaveholders still clung to views of inferiority to justify slavery. Eventually the abolitionist science prevailed. Despite appearances of objectivity, science is spun to support an individuals beliefs. Interestingly, there were some black scientific organizations that produced research in isolation of the white establishment. 

A Brief History of Equality

A Brief History of Equality by Thomas Piketty, translated by Steven Rendall

Piketty sees the world as moving towards a state of more equality, using the definition he gives. The argument is filled with contradictions and redefinitions. There are various ideas that make sense, but are not carried out well. Including negative externalities in calculation of wealth seems like a smart move, but it becomes challenging in practice. Equality across different groups seems like a noble goal, but how far do you go in defining groups. Is equality a good thing? There is conflict between equality and freedom. People are richer with more material possessions, but are they happier? If what matters is relative difference, wouldn't equality just make everyone feel "blah"? The author is an advocate of reparations. Would these benefit the people paying or the people receiving? He gives the example of "reversing" the suffering of Haiti by returning payments made to France. Would you also make Russia pay back payments made by Finland? What about Germany's payments after World War I? Making payments can encourage thrift and hard work. Receiving payments can end up causing harm and hurting the economy. (Even in rich economies, natural resource abundance can have negative impacts. Would loads of cash in previously disadvantaged groups result in short term boost of "others" and along term negative for the community impacted? You don't often hear of dynasties started with lottery winnings.) 

The author also criticizes the conservatism and slow change of current institutions. A drastic change would be a preferred way to launch communism. Alas, the track record of this has not been good. If we enable more dramatic changes, what is to say it would happen to the left? Trump is an example of taking power to change in the opposite direction.

Cause and effect are also uncertain. Does equality lead to economic growth? Or does growth provide the ability to provide more societal benefits for all? What is the end goal for growth and equality? 

Before We Lost the Lake: A Natural and Human History of Sumas

Before We Lost the Lake: A Natural and Human History of Sumas by Chad Reimer

Sumas lake was a variable lack in southern British Columbia. It would grow and shrink with the season. It had a large fishery and the wetlands provided for lush vegetation and wildlife. The Semá:th had lived in this area for many years and lived of the fish and waterfowl as well as plants. The lake also had less-desirable residence, such as strong mosquitos at times of the year. Eventually white farmers moved into the region. The lake was seen as a detriment to farming and hard to categorize as water or land. There were many plans to drain the lake. However, these were primarily set to be privately funded and they kept falling through. The railroad seemed the most likely to do it, but they couldn't justify the expense. Eventually it did fall on the government. The lake was drained and area could be farmed. This lead to ecological harm as well as put areas downstream at great risk for flooding. The Semá:th were also harmed. However, it did open a great deal of farmland and enabled both pasturing of animals as well as crops such as berries. Was it worth it? The book paints a great picture of the history of the region and provides a fairly objective look at the positive and negative aspects of the drainage project.

Beef, Bible and Bullets: Brazil in the Age of Bolsonaro

Beef, Bible and Bullets: Brazil in the Age of Bolsonaro by Richard Lapper

Bolsonaro was a Brazilian version of Trump. He was adamantly not politically correct. During the campaign, he was the victim of a failed assassination attempt. He gradually lost popularity during his term in office and was criticized for his handling of COVID-19. He was eventually defeated by Lula, a former left wing president who had been convicted of fraud. (The conviction was later overturned and he was allowed to run again.) The bulk of the book covers the background of brazil leading up to the election. Brazil has significant crime. The criminal gangs have active operations within prisons. (and seem more effective than the government in punishing evildoers.) Police play a significant role in society and hold many elected positions. In spite of this, many neighborhoods have vigilantes which also fight crime. (Alas, these can be just as bad as the criminals.) The court system is slow and delayed through multiple appeals. Things seemed to be going well with oil reserves, but the country was not able to benefit. There is a ton of potential, but few results. Big events such as the World Cup and Olympics brought tourists, but also cost huge amounts of money. Meanwhile, there are significant swaths of poverty. Most of the book covers the past and current history and politics of Brazil. This all provides an understanding of how Bolsonaro came to power.