The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation

The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation by Carl Benedikt Frey

What is the impact of technology on society? The answer is tricky. In the short term, current occupations are destroyed. Those that spent much time developing skills find those skills irrelevant. The skilled artisans must fight for new positions once their past jobs are eliminated. In the long run, society is usually better off. People have access to more lower priced goods. Those who lost their livelihood eventually find new work (or leave the workforce.)  New career opportunities appear.

The book details many cases of technology change through history. The response has differed depending on implementation. Workers were not thrilled when skilled jobs were replaced by unskilled children. When workers have been able to benefit from increased technology they are happier with the changes. Social safety nets also increase the willingness of people to adopt the changes.

Recovery: How We Can Create a Better, Brighter Future After a Crisis

Recovery: How We Can Create a Better, Brighter Future After a Crisis by Andrew Wear

Bad things happen. We can choose how to behave afterwards. In many cases, people have recovered from tragedy to create something much better than existed before. Germany grew to be a power after war devastation. The roaring twenties boomed after the Spanish Flu. There are many cases of cities that had a big growth spurt after the destruction of a fire. The book includes many examples of positive recovery and looks forward to future improvements as society deals with struggle. It has the tone of a grandfather discussing the past.

Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion

Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert B. Cialdini

This is a fairly long book that details a few key principles of persuasions. The concept are very well illustrated with examples from well known figures as well as individuals. Examples include people using these as well as having these used on them. The use includes time when both parties benefit as well as those when one party clearly achieves advantage. There are also "scam" uses that can be identified so that you don't fall victim. 

Many of the principles rely on variations of reciprocity. If you give somebody something, they often feel a need to give you something back. A free sample will often encourage somebody to buy something. Doing a favor to somebody will make them more likely to do something for you. Level-setting can be a variation on this. Giving somebody a lower priced option after starting higher gives them a sense of getting a favor from you. Sending cards or remembering other people helps make them more likely to do you a favor later.

People use "shortcuts" as clues to make quick decisions. High prices are often an indicator of quality and could encourage sales - especially if they are later discounted. Long lines also indicate something that is in demand. (This is one that marketers can often "game" by paying people to stand in line.) Expert appeals are also a common shortcut, even if the expert lacks expertise in the field. "TV Doctors" often pitch medical products - even while admitting they just play one on TV. A scientist's opinions are often valued by the public - even in fields outside their expertise.

Urgency can be used and abused. If it is the last item, you may be worried about the fear of missing out. (This is also an area that is often faked.)

People also like to be internally consistent. They have a desire to do something that is morally correct. Scammers can often take advantage of this to get people (especially elderly) to "correct" what seems to be a problem.

Group connection is another factor that can help persuade. In World War II, the Jews helped seek protection in Japan by appealing to their mutual history as "Asians". Salespeople will often do best when selling to people within their same group (whether it be ethnicity, religion, or even college attended.) Some salespeople are especially good at finding similarities to help sell. (This can also backfire if group is not quite right.) In one example, a door to door salesman would mention neighbors he sold to. He was able to further maximize by "matching". If he was selling to a couple, he would mention another couple. If he was selling to a housewife, he would just mention another housewife. This helped make the purchasers feel more willing to make the decision at the time.

The more commitments involved in a group, the greater the attachment. "Hazing" helps increase the ties to a group due to the work and challenge involved. Society now works at stopping hazing. However, this may just lead to it going underground or involving other ways to have this relationship.

The persuasion principles seem simple, but can be more complex in practice. The author gives many examples where he has fallen victim to persuasion tactics - even knowing that they exist. We may know various tactics, but it takes work to practice them authentically.

Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago, Second Edition with a New Preface

Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago, Second Edition with a New Preface by Eric Klinenberg

In 1995 Chicago faced a blistering heat wave. Many people across all groups died. However, poor minority men living alone in certain neighborhoods tended to die at higher rates. The book explores the causes of some of the excess deaths. Many of those that died lived alone and valued their independence. However, neighborhood characteristics had significant impacts on survival rates. North Lawndale and Little Village were next to each other, but had very different death rates. Little Village has been growing and has a dense, primarily Hispanic population with many community resources. North Lawndale, on the other hand, has been losing population and had a small fraction of its peak population. There were few community resources and a there had been a significant population shift. Elderly were afraid to open their doors or windows and felt few ties to the community.

In addition to demographics and community, government resources play a role. While there are many public resources available, people, especially those most in need, do not know how to access them. There are public housing facilities for low-income seniors. However, are not enough to go around. There are also problems when these locations are extended to broadly, leading to drug use and crime that discourages elderly to go out. Crime and the perception of crime can be a big problem. In the past heat waves, people would spend time outside - cooling off at the peach, keeping windows open or even sleeping outside. Now with the fear of crime, none of that is done.

Other factors also came into play. Air conditioning can be nice. However, it costs money to run, and many of the poorest can't afford it. Power outages can pose problems for those used to living with air conditioning who no longer have it. Water can also help cool, but if too many hydrants are illegally opened, people may not have water pressure in their houses.

As the country becomes less dependent on their community and more dependent on government, it becomes more challenging to deal with unexpected large-scale issues. How much should we hope our government to protect us from disasters? Chicago had learned and adopted some new policies that resulted in a significantly lower death toll in 1999. While there were plenty of warm nights, there was not nearly as much negative coverage of the heat wave. 

Land Power: Who Has It, Who Doesn't, and How That Determines the Fate of Societies

Land Power: Who Has It, Who Doesn't, and How That Determines the Fate of Societies by Michael Albertus

Control of land has historically meant power. Land reform can do wonders for well being and productivity if done right. However things can go horribly wrong (as in the case of collectivization in the USSR and China. There of principles in play from the left and right. People must have control to make decisions for their land and reap the rewards from those decisions.  However, they should also be in a position where they can make decisions that will provide for the long-term benefit of the land. The book explores a number of cases where land reform has succeeded and failed. Bolivia is praised for the gender balance and equity in land distribution. Mexico failed because it was primarily a means for the political party to maintain power. South Africa returned land to blacks. In the process, the white owners were compensated. The black farmers would later need to rely on the previous owner's skills to help farm the land. Did the program benefit anybody? In Canada, land was made available in the prairie for male farmers. This disenfranchises females and even lead to a gender imbalance. Did it also reduce crime by providing a positive outlet and since of responsibility for the males? In Brazil, the desire to provide land has lead to rapid destruction of the Amazon rainforest. 

Land reform is complicated. It can provide significant benefits for society if done right. If done wrong, it can hurt the economy and social structure and cause environmental devastation. There are also challenges involved when multiple groups with different concepts of land ownership lay claim to the land. In places like North America, Africa and Australia, recent European groups have claimed land that was often claimed in common by aboriginal tribes. Is there a good way to right the wrongs done in the past? Is it even possible? The land of today is much different from that of previous times.

The book starts to explore a very complicated topic. The author even dives down into other classifications, such as gender, ethnicity, and class. This opens up many more complications and makes ideal solutions even more challenging. It is also complicated by the urbanization of society. The solutions for land appropriation for farmers are very different than for those in a city. How should land be allocated in our modern society?

The Wounded Generation: Coming Home After World War II

The Wounded Generation: Coming Home After World War II by David Nasaw

In my mind, American history went from the Great Depression to World War II to the 1950s. This misses out on an entire half-decade of history in the late 1940s. This was a time of transition from active combat to peacemaking and rebuilding abroad. Millions of troops also had to be returned home and reintegrated in society. Those at home had to rapidly adjust to the many changes. This was not an easy process. Just the logistics of getting troops home was a huge challenge. The troops also suffered from many physical and mental injuries. The mental part was barely understood and people were often expected to just get over the trauma. Southern black troops had to return from places where they were considered normal people to places were they were treated as sub-humans. Families had big adjustments as people that were gone for years are now back home. There were significant divorces and challenges adjusting to this new reality.

The book can get a little confusing as it pivots from discussing conditions as they were experienced at the time to reanalysis of conditions based on modern understanding. However, it did bring out some interesting points. Family life was starting to disintegrate. The seeds of the 1960's civil rights movement and counterculture appear to have been sewn during the war. The southerners still held significant influence as they tried to maintain their white supremacy. The many veterans benefits were actually a compromise. There was a desire to extend many of these programs to everyone, but this was quashed in part to appease the south. Black veterans supposedly had access to these programs. However, states controlled implementation leaving those in the south with little opportunity. Nearly a century after the civil war, the experience of slavery was still spreading its claws. 

The post war boom was also not something that was expected. Many expected a recession after the war. It was hard to find jobs for those returning. Most women returned to the home (often willingly), freeing up jobs for returning veterans. Veterans were supposed to be entitled to their previous job. They also received benefits such as tuition coverage and living allowance or unemployment benefits.  (These plans were slowly rolled out and changed over time. Initially, only those that were in school could get college help, but later it was expanded to everyone for 4 years of school.) There was post-war labor unrest that eventually calmed down and led to the post-war boom. There were huge shortages of housing after the war. It took a few tries before a boom in production took place. The divorce boom preceded the baby boom. The path from the end of hostilities to economic boom was far from foreordained, with many veterans suffering in both the short and long term.

Blessings and Disasters: A Story of Alabama

Blessings and Disasters: A Story of Alabama by Alexis Okeowo

This book will not change any stereotypes of Alabama. The author was raised in Alabama by African parents. They were "outsiders". They were culturally very different from the slave-descendant African American population, though that was the group they most closely resembled on the outside. Alabama had been controlled by a small group of wealthy white plantation owners for a the past few centuries. The Creek tribes, poor whites and blacks were relegated to a lower position. Though the poor whites were elevated a bit higher than the others to help keep things in order. The Creek had managed to stay through aligning themselves with various groups in power, but have had to struggle to remain relevant. The author tells stories of authority figures that would abuse their power and individual people. There are struggles to be heard along with a strong, conservative religious environment that makes change slow and hard to come by. Alabama continues to be Alabama.  

No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart: The Surprising Deceptions of Individual Choice

No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart: The Surprising Deceptions of Individual Choice by Tom Slee

Economics is based on individual choice. People "vote by their feet". If everyone chooses something, that will win. However, it is not so simple. The large corporations have power that make it difficult for others to compete. There is an amalgamation of benefits and costs with an imbalanced relationship. Game theory comes into play. People may prefer to have a vibrant local downtown. However, they also want the lower prices that walmart offer on some things. Alas, by getting those low prices, they decimate the downtown. The book has some interesting cases of how decisions are made for us by the big entities, leaving us with little opportunity. Big movie studios and big businesses make things their way, leaving an illusion of free choice, but providing little of it. The book has interesting thoughts, though does get a bit disorganized.

The Lines That Make Us: Stories from Nathan's Bus

The Lines That Make Us: Stories from Nathan's Bus by Nathan Vass, forward by Paul Constant

Nathan is a photographer and Seattle Bus Driver. He enjoys driving some of the more "interesting" routes in the city - including nighttime routes through diverse, low-income areas. He relates many of his experiences that he has had driving the bus. There are stories of "regulars" that are often provoking others, but occasionally well-behaved. There are those that are down on their luck, yet happy and optimistic. One day he picked up a panhandler that was covered in dog poop. Previous buses refused to pick him up. However, after he shared his story of being pelted by a BMW the other riders on the bus helped stand up for him. Nathan also detailed a conversation he overheard between two shabby-looking passengers discussing the best writings by Shakespeare. Due to the routes, many of the stories involve those down on their luck. He observes that those tend to be the most "extreme". They may be the most polite people as well as the most rude. They remain people.

Vertigo: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Germany

Vertigo: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Germany by Harald Jähner

Weimar Germany was eerily like the modern United States. Germany was arguably the most intellectually advanced country in the world. The military was also among the best. Many people felt that they were not defeated during World War I so much as given up by their leaders. Germany was tasked with paying huge reparations. To support this, they printed more money. This led to a hyperinflation and a shuffling of the economy, with the "responsible" savers being hurt, while the reckless borrowers did well. Eventually the government dictated a new currency value and brought an end to hyperinflation. 

In spite of reparation payments, the German economy boomed. Money was obtained (often from America) and many manufacturing operations were set up. Germany was the center of technology. Liberal social ideals were also in place. Women's rights and LGBT acceptance were on the rise. The human body was now an object for study and art in its native form, with sports such as boxing and gymnastics important. There were also significant architecture and art movements, with some interesting political overtones. (Roof shape became incredibly political.)

The culture veered to the left, opening up politics that veered to the right. The National Socialist party admitted that it would use legal means to come into power, and then ditch legality once the power was in place. They were not the first to use some of the "emergency" powers. Other governments had done so shortly before they did. Part of their rise to power was a result of decadence and falling of German values that they had seen in society. They scapegoated certain groups, especially Jews.

And today? We have had a period of higher inflation. Liberal culture and values has enraged the right. The loss of national pride has allowed the rise of Trump. He has shown callous disregard for laws, but has also followed some of the same shortcuts that were followed by previous administration. Both the left and right have got carried away in the moras. The economy seems to be humming along well now, but what happens when it falls apart? Will we learn the lessons from Weimar Germany?

Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies

Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies - Updated Edition by Charles Perrow

Increasingly complex systems are increasingly susceptible to cascading risks. The book goes through many detailed examples.The first one is a contrived example from regular life. A man has many small issues happen that cause him to miss a meeting at work. Any of the items alone would not be a problem. However, they all built on top of each other to create a catastrophe. Bigger catastrophes were detailed, such as three mile island nuclear disaster. Many things had to fail together to cause the meltdown. Some of the safety and redundancies helped contribute to the problem.

After an incident occurs, there is usually a desire to assign blame. However, in today's world, it is difficult to assign single blame. Many of the actions that lead to the disaster would not normally be a problem. However, they became an issue when everything was linked together. In the afterward the author is thankful that society has become more willing to acknowledge these system issues rather than continue to try to assign individual blame. (Alas, there is a still a strong legal incentive to assign blame.)

Today's society is increasingly susceptible to system issues. Redundancies are eliminated from systems in the name of efficiency. That works great when things are functioning normally. However, it also means small things can cascade out of control quickly and bring down entire systems. Attempts to make systems more "safe" can sometimes be the source of failures. A warning that fires too often may be ignored. Automatic safety responses could lead to damage to different systems.  Areas such as nuclear power and genetic engineering have power to destroy society if systems break down. How do we protect the world? This book is extremely detailed in the exploration of the problem. It does not pose any simple solutions to a problem that eludes them. 

A Journal of the Plague Year

A Journal of the Plague Year by Daniel Defoe

The Librivox narration of this book was very well done. It was easy to understand, even at 4x speed. In the book, Defoe details the experience in England during a year of the bubonic plague. There is debate as to whether this should be considered "history" or "historical fiction". Regardless of what it is, the author excellently portrays the experiences living through the era. Many of the same concerns that we have had during the Covid-19 pandemic are represented in this period. Some people think they are above it and then find themselves suffering. The society is turned inside out as they are trying to manage the plague. The basic economy has trouble functioning since there is no telling what the future will entail.

Survival of the City: Living and Thriving in an Age of Isolation

Survival of the City: Living and Thriving in an Age of Isolation by Edward L. Glaeser and David Cutler

I wanted to like this book. The general idea and the conclusions are great. However, the execution just leaves something to desire. The authors come from different political perspectives and find issue with the way things are tackled politically. We need to get long term solutions to the big problems rather than just short term crowd pleasers. Policing is an example. On one side you have "defund the police". They are seeking to limit the harm that people experience due to police violence and excessive incarceration. On the other side you have "tough on crime" and "three strikes" policies aiming to prevent people from being harmed by crimes. People with lower incomes and minorities are often the most likely to be incarcerated and the most likely to be victim of crimes. Rather than a zero sum of "tough on crime" vs. "defund the police" we need to improve policing to reduce crime and incarceration. This does not bring itself to easy soundbites, but will provide a better solution. We need to address similar areas of education and health. Income, housing availability and costs are also related. Zoning has created havoc on the United States as a whole. Previously, people would migrate from poor areas to areas with opportunity, gradually leading to an equalization. Now the areas with opportunity are so expensive that migration is limited. The high cost of housing and limited availability makes it difficult for people to relocate there. A combination of the car and end-runs around racial integration have wreaked havoc on our cities. The poor bear the biggest burden of these changes. Despite these issues, people still desire to live in these cities. 

The Theory of the Leisure Class

The Theory of the Leisure Class by Thorstein Veblen

I bought this book a few decades ago, but didn't get around to reading it. I had missed out. Veblen has a great critique of the "leisure class" and their conspicuous consumption. He tells things with flat out seriousness, yet lays it on hard. Was he trying to be truly serious or was this meant as a satire? It hits it well either way. The points seem so true today, it is hard to believe it is over a century old. 

The Leisure Class does not busy themselves with manual endeavors. They have servants to take care of that. Instead, the work on intellectual and "charitable" pursuits. Much of their consumption is "conspicuous". They consume to be noticed. They may flavor their food with substances precisely because they are expensive, not because they impart any particular taste.

Veblen calls out colleges and sports. These sports are how the leisure class unites and carries out violence. Sports like football are seen as emblematic of the leisure class. Why are they connected to institutions of higher learning? It is because these are made to be class differentiators. I can only imagine what he would think about college sports today. 

A Bad Case of Stripes

A Bad Case of Stripes by David Shannon (Author, Illustrator)

A girl always want to fit in. She does what the reset of the crowd does. She secretly likes lima beans, but never eats them because her friends don't like them. One day she wakes up with stripes. After her doctor determines she has no other symptoms, she is allowed to go to school. There things get worse. Her stripes morph to other designs as kids make suggestions. At home other "cures" just make things worse. Her appearance changes to whatever others suggest. Finally, a little old lady cures her by giving her some lima beans. After that, she feels free to be more like herself and not always follow the crowd. The illustrations are great in this book about fitting in.

Hive Mind: How Your Nation's IQ Matters So Much More Than Your Own

Hive Mind: How Your Nation's IQ Matters So Much More Than Your Own by Garett Jones

Countries with a higher average IQ tend to be more prosperous. This book explores the topic and analyzes reasons why. One concern that jumps out is test bias. This is brushed aside as irrelevant. Even if the tests are hugely biased, a group that excels on the test tends to show attributes that lead to success. Those with higher IQs tend to be more patient and have greater analytic skills. They can plan for the future and build out structure for long term improvements. The crowd effects lead others to follow the positive crowd. Immigration also tends to help these countries. People in the high-IQ countries work on more complex tasks. Even if lower-skill people come, they free up those working in low-skill tasks to migrate to the complex ones, increasing the overall economy of the country. The high-IQ people tend to be less likely to accept garbage and corruption from politicians because they understand what is going on. The book contains some stats and analysis. It rambles on a bit, but it is pretty short and presents a fairly solid argument for the "aggregate" rather than the individual. 

The Death and Life of Great American Cities

The Death and Life of Great American Cities by Jane Jacobs

Reading this book is so depressing. The author pointed out the flaws in the suburban planning more than a half century ago. And what has happened since then? Most of the US has been developed with the same bad planning. Central planning. Parking lots. Separation of concerns. Now there has finally been a little bit of observation that some of these things were bad. Why did it take so long? Why did we destroy actual communities earlier on? Now with phones and devices we are even more separated. Maybe that has been the final nudge that we need to realize that we want some community in our physical life.

Many times cities are "killed" rather than suffer natural deaths. Planners confuse "density" with "overcrowding". High density areas are often very successful, especially if people care. Neighbors will "self-police" to ensure everyone meets standards. People can also have a degree of anonymity in cities that they cannot in small towns. They can be private, yet still part of a tight-knit urban community.

The author criticizes the "garden city" and other movements that would likely be considered "new urbanism" today. Instead, she advocates pure urbanism. Keep big sidewalks for people to travel, play and spend their time. Let cities have many different concerns together. She spends some time looking at alternatives to public housing. Her position would look much more libertarian, with the government less involved than they are now. One key point is that people would still be able to live in the community once they earn too much to qualify. (Would this change incentives to hide income?) There seem to be some flaws, though she admits that it is a starting point and should be revised as needed. in some places, we do allow people to remain after earning more. There are attempts to have more "mixed income housing". However, the entire public housing system still suffers many of the same problems that the author identified in the the early 1960s. 

The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference

The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference by Malcolm Gladwell

Malcolm Gladwell explores different things that have "tipped" to go from niche to widely popular. Hush Puppies were old shoes that were on their way out. After a few New York hipsters adopted them, they became incredibly popular and a fashion statement. Another shoe brand, Airwalk was crazy popular as it was adopted by the skater crowd. They released a "popular" version at shoe stores, but kept the performance brand at skate stores. However, once they dropped the special skate brand, their popularity faded. The book explores other "tips" such as New York crime and fare evasion, teen activities (like smoking, school shootings, sickness and suicides. The Stanford prison experiment even makes an appearance. There are interesting discussions on the influence of "connectors" and "mavens" in spreading fads. The book is a fun read, even if some of the explanation may have more nuance than he gives.

How to Buy a Planet: The Cleremont Conjectures, Book 1

How to Buy a Planet: The Cleremont Conjectures, Book 1 by D.A. Holdsworth

People wake up to find that the earth was sold for a few quadrillions of an alien currency. At the time it maps to quadrillions of British pounds. Debts and other things are forgiven. Alas, people later discover that the aliens plan on turning earth into a tropical resort.  The aliens also like lots of daylight, so they are melting the ice caps and accelerating global warming. Earthlings consider buying the planet back. However, the payment the received is in a fiat currency that is now valued at closer to a pound. (The currency had not been used for trading, and was most closely tied to the value of ice in the earth's ice cap - which is now melted away.) And to make matters worse, earthlings are now being charged rent. They must borrow money at usurious rates to pay the rent. There is one earthling that is serving as a middleman and making a fortune. And he stands to make even more as earth is IPOd on some intergalactic markets. The earth seems doomed. Luckily, some people fake a disease outbreak, scare off the investors and manage to get the earth back.

The book is a social critique of the excesses of capitalism. The actions performed by aliens are similar to those done by bankers. At the end, they proclaim a modern utopia. The book does get a bit long. At times it ventures off into "pure science fiction" as it deals with extra-terrestrial communication and long range transport, and then switches back to a social commentary focus.

The Licensing Racket: How We Decide Who Is Allowed to Work, and Why It Goes Wrong

The Licensing Racket: How We Decide Who Is Allowed to Work, and Why It Goes Wrong by Rebecca Haw Allensworth

This book is a disturbing look at the current professional licensing system in the United States. Licensing has spread from the "esteemed professions" (like law and medicine) to all sorts of minor areas like hair braiding and alarm installation. The licensing schemes in general drive up the cost of entering professions, but do little to provide for public welfare. The licensing requirements often require extensive education requirements and prerequisites - many which are not needed in the practice of profession. The boards consist of practitioners. They are very active in fining and shutting down those that are practicing without a license. However, they are very slow to enforce penalties on those existing practitioners. Boards are also eager to expand their turf.

Reform has often been slow and around the margins. Some requirements for language proficiency or citizen status are reduced on lower-esteemed professions. However, the boards continue to be primarily a cartel protecting interest of those practitioners.  The author proposes a number of solutions, including expanding staff and resources. Changing boards to be made up of non-practitioners will also help. Those members of the profession could provide some expert experience, but not dominate the board.

The book gives many examples of the "failure" of boards to discipline malfescents. These anecdotes drive home the case, but may be cherry-picked. Statistics make a stronger case, though they may be hard to come by generally. How many licensees are disciplined or lose their license?  The author lives in Tennessee, so the focus was there. However, there was coverage of other places.