The Domestic Revolution: How the Introduction of Coal into Victorian Homes Changed Everything

The Domestic Revolution: How the Introduction of Coal into Victorian Homes Changed Everything by Ruth Goodman

Coal changed the life of the British population. The takeover of coal followed a meandering path. It was seen as something to help the "lower classes", but gradually spread to upper classes. It changed the way of cooking and brought about the overcooked British food. Chineys also came about at a similar time. They did keep some away, but they also let much of the heat escape. At first they were only for the rich, but they gradually spread. Heating changed the way we live and sleep. Coal fire led to more furniture elevated above the ground. A central fire encouraged everyone to socialize together in a small house. Not until central heating did people spread apart into big houses. The method of home heating is an important part of daily life, yet is not well documented. Much of the history of coal adoption had to be pieced together from fragmentary sources.

The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck by David Spiegelhalter

This book was not bad, but I feel I have read a few very similar books before. Uncertainty is a thing in life. We often do a poor job understanding and acting on the true odds. We also need to be make sure we are communicating properly. Sometimes what we may take as expressing a certain probability may be interpreted by the listener as expressing something different. It is also important to update our probabilities as we get more information (Bayesian logic.) We may even need to update the initial odds if that was totally off base. The book was well written and conversational. 

Crisis of the Common Good: The Fight for Meaning and Connection in a Broken America

Crisis of the Common Good: The Fight for Meaning and Connection in a Broken America by Chris Murphy

Chris Murphy is a Democrat and is upset with what Trump has done to the presidency. However, rather than jump into partisan attacks, he looks at the root cause. Trump is able to tap into resentment felt by many in America. The town where people know each other and work together has been replaced by a homogenous culture. People don't have the community and the desire for the common good. People are much more siloed. Community organizations and churches are much less present.

He sees the problems as many "cults". Cult of Profit, Cult of Globalism, Cult of Technology, Cult of Consumption, Cult of Credentialism, Cult of Corruption. Given his political leaning he left out the "Cult of Other" - the look for somebody else (like the government) to solve the problems. He tries very hard to be politically neutral, and for the most part succeeds, though the partisanship does occasionally eek out.

In one section, he stated that he would like for the government not to provide any services dependent on income. He was focussing on "fast lanes", but it would be a great idea for all services. There is a huge application needed to apply for low-income housing or rent assistance. Other resources require regular validation that you are in fact poor. This is demeaning and encourages one to keep income low to maintain benefits. What if we just provided everything to everyone? The administration costs would go down. The negative aspects would go away. It would cost more, but everyone would benefit from it. It is similar to the public library. Wealthy people could just buy the books (and many do.) However, everyone has access to the library regardless of how much they earn. What if we did that with our many other programs? Instead of charging low-income bus riders $1 and everyone else $3, just charge everyone $1. Provide basic health care for everyone. Provide free school lunch for everyone. Eliminate anything that requires you to validate that you are poor to receive some benefit. The rich would need to pay a little more in taxes. The middle class would probably be a wash. Administration costs would go down. There would also be incentive for everyone to make the system better. There would also eliminate the "income penalty". There is more incentive for people to earn more above-board. Alas, things are moving in the opposite direction. Washington even started a "low income toll", where low-income people pay less. This is like butting a band-aid on a broken arm.

Self-Made: Creating Our Identities from Da Vinci to the Kardashians

Self-Made: Creating Our Identities from Da Vinci to the Kardashians by Tara Isabella Burton

People have been famous for being famous. "Social identity" is something carefully crafted to appeal to the others. Why do we care? Alas, I'm not sure. The book spends a while talking about "dandys" and people that have some particular public persona. People do seem to care a lot about about the Kardashians, so there is a market there somewhere, just not for me.

Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things

Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things by Dan Ariely

During Covid, Dan Ariely got attacked by those opposed to Covid policy. He had given some satirical discussion about healthcare that were taken out of context and used as bait. His "half beard" made him recognizable and subject to ridicule by those that did not like current Covid policy. Many of these people would latch on to "conspiracy theories" and could not be convinced otherwise. Ariely attempted to find out what drove people to believe irrational things.

There seemed to be a pattern to "misbelief." People would start with some objection. They may feel wronged or didn't like how things were happening. Then they would go online and after a few searches they would find some sites that seemed to support their position. Then they would dig deeper. Other sources would provide deeper validation. These would often start with some degree of credibility, but be missing certain features of respectability. (It may be something that looks like a medical organization, but is actually just a propaganda group.) Then people find their community. Others support their belief and provide the support they need. The community members often have an outward portrayal of intellectual humility, but inwardly are not willing to change their own mind, but they want others to change their mind. They see others that change their mind or even align with the enemy as outcasts. That makes them unwilling to change their own minds even if they realize they may be mistaken.

The book focuses on the fringe misbelievers. However, the same symptoms are present throughout society. Even in science, the orthodoxy may be insular and not intellectually humble enough to accept changes. Most conspiracy theories start with at least some grain of truth. When mainstream thought accepts falsehoods as a way of getting its point across it opens up the conflict. During the outset of Covid, government officials initially said masks were not useful and that schools should stay open. Later officials pivoted, despite the science not changing. Officials knew that masks helped slow the spread, but used falsehoods to preserve the supply. They also knew it was best to keep schools open due to past pandemic experience. However, they ended up closing them in the name of stopping the spread more due to emotional appeals. "Science" was used to back up what were primarily political decision. Science against the orthodoxy was discredited. This forced many "underground" and did more to harm outcomes. (If the government had lied about lockdowns, why trust them regarding vaccines?) Today, we often see any extreme weather event blamed on climate change even if there is not justification. Is this attempt of public persuasion just enabling climate change denial?

Everyday Freedom: Designing the Framework for a Flourishing Society

Everyday Freedom: Designing the Framework for a Flourishing Society by Philip K. Howard

The United States has become so wrapped up in blame and liability that the ability to make good decisions has been lost. Organizations make policies and people implement the policies. If something wrong happens, that is seen as a defect in the policy and it must be changed. We must go through long slow processes to get anything done. It is expected that anybody can voice a concern and stop processes. As long as people follow the rule book they are seen as free from liability. This can lead to a bad status quo remaining while preventing much good. Much of the regulatory framework was built in response to what was seen as problematic behavior. However, it has now been carried away to such an extent that bad behavior can hide behind rules.

What is the solution? Give people power and judgement to make decisions. Replace a detailed rule book with principles that must be followed. Let humans make decisions instead of expecting a rule book to do it all. It all makes so much sense. Though to get it to work, we need legal reform. Bad things may happen. An organization should not be held to multi-million dollar legal decisions because the results of something did not end up perfect.

The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice

The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice by Jennifer Doleac

We are wasting a lot of time and money with criminal justice policies that don't work. Meanwhile, cheap solutions are staring us in the face and not being followed. The author is an equal opportunity critic, with many favorite right wing and left wing policies criticized. Mostly using natural experiments, she studies various measures and finds those that work and those that don't work. Most of the results seem counter-intuitive, such as the fact that children of incarcerated parents tend to be better off than children in similar situations where the parent is not incarcerated.

Left wing policies to help those stuck in the crime cycle often do not help. Baning the job application "checkbox" for crimianl convications makes it harder for ex-cons to find jobs, especially if they are black. Heavy wrap-around programs on release result in higher recidivism rates. Being "soft on crime" doesn't help the criminal or society. Right wing policies like broken-windows policing and strict monitoring and cutting off food stamp eligibility for food stamps hurt.

What helps? Letting first time offenders off easy does not disrupt their lives and results in fewer repeat offenses. Going through the process of getting arrested is often enough of a negative experience. Adding everyone to a DNA database, even after the most minor offenses also reduces the likelihood of future crimes. Electronic monitoring instead of more time in jail helps. Giving criminals more money when released and keeping them eligible for social welfare programs works. Requiring sobriety checks to maintain release encourages treatment programs.

In general, we should have consequences for criminal activity. These should be expected and consistent. They should also only escalate with repeat offenses. Prison is a huge disruption for people's lives and should be used only when needed. Very focussed efforts should be made to reintroduce them to society. On release, it is best to fully integrate in society, separate from other former prisoners. Don't try to solve all problems at once.

The proposed solutions tend to anger those vested in certain schemes. Is this a case of those benefiting from the status quo wanting to keep their funding rather than do what is best society? 

The Vanishing Church: How the Hollowing Out of Moderate Congregations Is Hurting Democracy, Faith, and Us

The Vanishing Church: How the Hollowing Out of Moderate Congregations Is Hurting Democracy, Faith, and Us (Why Culture Wars Led to Polarization and What It Means for the Future of Religion in America) by Ryan P. Burge

At one time, mainline protestant churches were community institutions. They represented a cross-section of the community, with different political beliefs. Today these churches are rare. Evangelical churches have risen up and are tightly associated with the right. Born Again and Evangelical are associated with politics as much as they are with religion. (There are even cases of non-religious or other religions adopting those terms.)

While right wing is associated with religious, left wing has been more associated with agnostic. There is a dearth of the "middle". The churches that could appeal to everyone have been dying off. Many small towns have lost their churches. People with fall away from churches due to political beliefs. There are also few avenues for people who are honestly questioning. Churches have represented multiple things. They are provide community, service, moral guidance and spirituality. With them falling away, society is at a loss.

When Prophecy Fails

When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger, Henry W. Riecken and Stanley Schachter

An alien cult predicted that they would be brought up by aliens. They were fairly secretive and did not actively proselytize. However, after the aliens failed to appear, the group become more open. Those close to the leaders stayed loyal. While those more distant and without close, regular contact with other members fell away. This seems similar to what happens in many other groups (even without the alien prophecies.) 

Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places

Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places by Paul Collier

The author of the book appears quite full of himself, but has a good message. Places that are not succeeding need help. The help is best when it comes within. External groups can (and should) support the process, but do so in a hands off way. Throwing dollars at a poorly functioning location can often make things worse. People do not like being told what to do. Leaders may capture benefits for themselves or create "trophies" that make things worse in the long wrong. Instead, the local groups need to adopt policies that work best for them. Aid without strings may be useful for helping implement the changes. (Though this may not be necessary.) Many of the most well-functioning egalitarian states were backwaters at one time. They suffered from many of the problems modern basket-cases do now. They may be able to There have been successful authoritarian regimes and failed democracies. Singapore has boomed through a time with a single ruler. Rwanda has gone from civil war and genocide to tourist haven. South Africa has fallen down, despite dropping apartheid and allowing global electoral participation. Each place has their own special cases and most adopt appropriately.

The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation

The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation by Carl Benedikt Frey

What is the impact of technology on society? The answer is tricky. In the short term, current occupations are destroyed. Those that spent much time developing skills find those skills irrelevant. The skilled artisans must fight for new positions once their past jobs are eliminated. In the long run, society is usually better off. People have access to more lower priced goods. Those who lost their livelihood eventually find new work (or leave the workforce.)  New career opportunities appear.

The book details many cases of technology change through history. The response has differed depending on implementation. Workers were not thrilled when skilled jobs were replaced by unskilled children. When workers have been able to benefit from increased technology they are happier with the changes. Social safety nets also increase the willingness of people to adopt the changes.

Recovery: How We Can Create a Better, Brighter Future After a Crisis

Recovery: How We Can Create a Better, Brighter Future After a Crisis by Andrew Wear

Bad things happen. We can choose how to behave afterwards. In many cases, people have recovered from tragedy to create something much better than existed before. Germany grew to be a power after war devastation. The roaring twenties boomed after the Spanish Flu. There are many cases of cities that had a big growth spurt after the destruction of a fire. The book includes many examples of positive recovery and looks forward to future improvements as society deals with struggle. It has the tone of a grandfather discussing the past.

Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion

Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert B. Cialdini

This is a fairly long book that details a few key principles of persuasions. The concept are very well illustrated with examples from well known figures as well as individuals. Examples include people using these as well as having these used on them. The use includes time when both parties benefit as well as those when one party clearly achieves advantage. There are also "scam" uses that can be identified so that you don't fall victim. 

Many of the principles rely on variations of reciprocity. If you give somebody something, they often feel a need to give you something back. A free sample will often encourage somebody to buy something. Doing a favor to somebody will make them more likely to do something for you. Level-setting can be a variation on this. Giving somebody a lower priced option after starting higher gives them a sense of getting a favor from you. Sending cards or remembering other people helps make them more likely to do you a favor later.

People use "shortcuts" as clues to make quick decisions. High prices are often an indicator of quality and could encourage sales - especially if they are later discounted. Long lines also indicate something that is in demand. (This is one that marketers can often "game" by paying people to stand in line.) Expert appeals are also a common shortcut, even if the expert lacks expertise in the field. "TV Doctors" often pitch medical products - even while admitting they just play one on TV. A scientist's opinions are often valued by the public - even in fields outside their expertise.

Urgency can be used and abused. If it is the last item, you may be worried about the fear of missing out. (This is also an area that is often faked.)

People also like to be internally consistent. They have a desire to do something that is morally correct. Scammers can often take advantage of this to get people (especially elderly) to "correct" what seems to be a problem.

Group connection is another factor that can help persuade. In World War II, the Jews helped seek protection in Japan by appealing to their mutual history as "Asians". Salespeople will often do best when selling to people within their same group (whether it be ethnicity, religion, or even college attended.) Some salespeople are especially good at finding similarities to help sell. (This can also backfire if group is not quite right.) In one example, a door to door salesman would mention neighbors he sold to. He was able to further maximize by "matching". If he was selling to a couple, he would mention another couple. If he was selling to a housewife, he would just mention another housewife. This helped make the purchasers feel more willing to make the decision at the time.

The more commitments involved in a group, the greater the attachment. "Hazing" helps increase the ties to a group due to the work and challenge involved. Society now works at stopping hazing. However, this may just lead to it going underground or involving other ways to have this relationship.

The persuasion principles seem simple, but can be more complex in practice. The author gives many examples where he has fallen victim to persuasion tactics - even knowing that they exist. We may know various tactics, but it takes work to practice them authentically.

Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago, Second Edition with a New Preface

Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago, Second Edition with a New Preface by Eric Klinenberg

In 1995 Chicago faced a blistering heat wave. Many people across all groups died. However, poor minority men living alone in certain neighborhoods tended to die at higher rates. The book explores the causes of some of the excess deaths. Many of those that died lived alone and valued their independence. However, neighborhood characteristics had significant impacts on survival rates. North Lawndale and Little Village were next to each other, but had very different death rates. Little Village has been growing and has a dense, primarily Hispanic population with many community resources. North Lawndale, on the other hand, has been losing population and had a small fraction of its peak population. There were few community resources and a there had been a significant population shift. Elderly were afraid to open their doors or windows and felt few ties to the community.

In addition to demographics and community, government resources play a role. While there are many public resources available, people, especially those most in need, do not know how to access them. There are public housing facilities for low-income seniors. However, are not enough to go around. There are also problems when these locations are extended to broadly, leading to drug use and crime that discourages elderly to go out. Crime and the perception of crime can be a big problem. In the past heat waves, people would spend time outside - cooling off at the peach, keeping windows open or even sleeping outside. Now with the fear of crime, none of that is done.

Other factors also came into play. Air conditioning can be nice. However, it costs money to run, and many of the poorest can't afford it. Power outages can pose problems for those used to living with air conditioning who no longer have it. Water can also help cool, but if too many hydrants are illegally opened, people may not have water pressure in their houses.

As the country becomes less dependent on their community and more dependent on government, it becomes more challenging to deal with unexpected large-scale issues. How much should we hope our government to protect us from disasters? Chicago had learned and adopted some new policies that resulted in a significantly lower death toll in 1999. While there were plenty of warm nights, there was not nearly as much negative coverage of the heat wave. 

Land Power: Who Has It, Who Doesn't, and How That Determines the Fate of Societies

Land Power: Who Has It, Who Doesn't, and How That Determines the Fate of Societies by Michael Albertus

Control of land has historically meant power. Land reform can do wonders for well being and productivity if done right. However things can go horribly wrong (as in the case of collectivization in the USSR and China. There of principles in play from the left and right. People must have control to make decisions for their land and reap the rewards from those decisions.  However, they should also be in a position where they can make decisions that will provide for the long-term benefit of the land. The book explores a number of cases where land reform has succeeded and failed. Bolivia is praised for the gender balance and equity in land distribution. Mexico failed because it was primarily a means for the political party to maintain power. South Africa returned land to blacks. In the process, the white owners were compensated. The black farmers would later need to rely on the previous owner's skills to help farm the land. Did the program benefit anybody? In Canada, land was made available in the prairie for male farmers. This disenfranchises females and even lead to a gender imbalance. Did it also reduce crime by providing a positive outlet and since of responsibility for the males? In Brazil, the desire to provide land has lead to rapid destruction of the Amazon rainforest. 

Land reform is complicated. It can provide significant benefits for society if done right. If done wrong, it can hurt the economy and social structure and cause environmental devastation. There are also challenges involved when multiple groups with different concepts of land ownership lay claim to the land. In places like North America, Africa and Australia, recent European groups have claimed land that was often claimed in common by aboriginal tribes. Is there a good way to right the wrongs done in the past? Is it even possible? The land of today is much different from that of previous times.

The book starts to explore a very complicated topic. The author even dives down into other classifications, such as gender, ethnicity, and class. This opens up many more complications and makes ideal solutions even more challenging. It is also complicated by the urbanization of society. The solutions for land appropriation for farmers are very different than for those in a city. How should land be allocated in our modern society?

The Wounded Generation: Coming Home After World War II

The Wounded Generation: Coming Home After World War II by David Nasaw

In my mind, American history went from the Great Depression to World War II to the 1950s. This misses out on an entire half-decade of history in the late 1940s. This was a time of transition from active combat to peacemaking and rebuilding abroad. Millions of troops also had to be returned home and reintegrated in society. Those at home had to rapidly adjust to the many changes. This was not an easy process. Just the logistics of getting troops home was a huge challenge. The troops also suffered from many physical and mental injuries. The mental part was barely understood and people were often expected to just get over the trauma. Southern black troops had to return from places where they were considered normal people to places were they were treated as sub-humans. Families had big adjustments as people that were gone for years are now back home. There were significant divorces and challenges adjusting to this new reality.

The book can get a little confusing as it pivots from discussing conditions as they were experienced at the time to reanalysis of conditions based on modern understanding. However, it did bring out some interesting points. Family life was starting to disintegrate. The seeds of the 1960's civil rights movement and counterculture appear to have been sewn during the war. The southerners still held significant influence as they tried to maintain their white supremacy. The many veterans benefits were actually a compromise. There was a desire to extend many of these programs to everyone, but this was quashed in part to appease the south. Black veterans supposedly had access to these programs. However, states controlled implementation leaving those in the south with little opportunity. Nearly a century after the civil war, the experience of slavery was still spreading its claws. 

The post war boom was also not something that was expected. Many expected a recession after the war. It was hard to find jobs for those returning. Most women returned to the home (often willingly), freeing up jobs for returning veterans. Veterans were supposed to be entitled to their previous job. They also received benefits such as tuition coverage and living allowance or unemployment benefits.  (These plans were slowly rolled out and changed over time. Initially, only those that were in school could get college help, but later it was expanded to everyone for 4 years of school.) There was post-war labor unrest that eventually calmed down and led to the post-war boom. There were huge shortages of housing after the war. It took a few tries before a boom in production took place. The divorce boom preceded the baby boom. The path from the end of hostilities to economic boom was far from foreordained, with many veterans suffering in both the short and long term.

Blessings and Disasters: A Story of Alabama

Blessings and Disasters: A Story of Alabama by Alexis Okeowo

This book will not change any stereotypes of Alabama. The author was raised in Alabama by African parents. They were "outsiders". They were culturally very different from the slave-descendant African American population, though that was the group they most closely resembled on the outside. Alabama had been controlled by a small group of wealthy white plantation owners for a the past few centuries. The Creek tribes, poor whites and blacks were relegated to a lower position. Though the poor whites were elevated a bit higher than the others to help keep things in order. The Creek had managed to stay through aligning themselves with various groups in power, but have had to struggle to remain relevant. The author tells stories of authority figures that would abuse their power and individual people. There are struggles to be heard along with a strong, conservative religious environment that makes change slow and hard to come by. Alabama continues to be Alabama.  

No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart: The Surprising Deceptions of Individual Choice

No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart: The Surprising Deceptions of Individual Choice by Tom Slee

Economics is based on individual choice. People "vote by their feet". If everyone chooses something, that will win. However, it is not so simple. The large corporations have power that make it difficult for others to compete. There is an amalgamation of benefits and costs with an imbalanced relationship. Game theory comes into play. People may prefer to have a vibrant local downtown. However, they also want the lower prices that walmart offer on some things. Alas, by getting those low prices, they decimate the downtown. The book has some interesting cases of how decisions are made for us by the big entities, leaving us with little opportunity. Big movie studios and big businesses make things their way, leaving an illusion of free choice, but providing little of it. The book has interesting thoughts, though does get a bit disorganized.

The Lines That Make Us: Stories from Nathan's Bus

The Lines That Make Us: Stories from Nathan's Bus by Nathan Vass, forward by Paul Constant

Nathan is a photographer and Seattle Bus Driver. He enjoys driving some of the more "interesting" routes in the city - including nighttime routes through diverse, low-income areas. He relates many of his experiences that he has had driving the bus. There are stories of "regulars" that are often provoking others, but occasionally well-behaved. There are those that are down on their luck, yet happy and optimistic. One day he picked up a panhandler that was covered in dog poop. Previous buses refused to pick him up. However, after he shared his story of being pelted by a BMW the other riders on the bus helped stand up for him. Nathan also detailed a conversation he overheard between two shabby-looking passengers discussing the best writings by Shakespeare. Due to the routes, many of the stories involve those down on their luck. He observes that those tend to be the most "extreme". They may be the most polite people as well as the most rude. They remain people.

Vertigo: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Germany

Vertigo: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Germany by Harald Jähner

Weimar Germany was eerily like the modern United States. Germany was arguably the most intellectually advanced country in the world. The military was also among the best. Many people felt that they were not defeated during World War I so much as given up by their leaders. Germany was tasked with paying huge reparations. To support this, they printed more money. This led to a hyperinflation and a shuffling of the economy, with the "responsible" savers being hurt, while the reckless borrowers did well. Eventually the government dictated a new currency value and brought an end to hyperinflation. 

In spite of reparation payments, the German economy boomed. Money was obtained (often from America) and many manufacturing operations were set up. Germany was the center of technology. Liberal social ideals were also in place. Women's rights and LGBT acceptance were on the rise. The human body was now an object for study and art in its native form, with sports such as boxing and gymnastics important. There were also significant architecture and art movements, with some interesting political overtones. (Roof shape became incredibly political.)

The culture veered to the left, opening up politics that veered to the right. The National Socialist party admitted that it would use legal means to come into power, and then ditch legality once the power was in place. They were not the first to use some of the "emergency" powers. Other governments had done so shortly before they did. Part of their rise to power was a result of decadence and falling of German values that they had seen in society. They scapegoated certain groups, especially Jews.

And today? We have had a period of higher inflation. Liberal culture and values has enraged the right. The loss of national pride has allowed the rise of Trump. He has shown callous disregard for laws, but has also followed some of the same shortcuts that were followed by previous administration. Both the left and right have got carried away in the moras. The economy seems to be humming along well now, but what happens when it falls apart? Will we learn the lessons from Weimar Germany?