The Efficiency Trap: Finding a Better Way to Achieve a Sustainable Energy Future

The Efficiency Trap: Finding a Better Way to Achieve a Sustainable Energy Future by Steve Hallett

The problem with chasing efficiency is twofold. First, the rebound effect may result in efficiencies being consumed by greater use. Second, we often focus on efficiencies in one area, neglecting the greater expenses in another. Refrigerators have become increasingly efficient. However, they have also become larger. Lighting is more efficient today than it was a 100 years ago, yet we spend much more on lighting. A hybrid car gets more miles per gallon than a gasoline powered car. However, it also requires much greater energy to produce and maintain. (The rare-earth metals needed for the battery are especially problematic.)

The primary topic could be covered in a short article. The rest of the book is primarily blather. The author also takes a very condescending tone towards anybody that he disagrees with (especially Republicans). This reduces the appeal of what should be good for a general audience.

The book does make an interesting point about energy. We have a fixed amount of fossil fuels that will produce a fixed amount of greenhouse gases. Even if we slow the rate of use, we will still have the same climatic impact. Hydro is pretty much tapped. Solar and wind require huge amounts of resources to produce and only produce limited quantities. Coal usage did decline, resulting in impacts on the British empire. Nuclear may have potential. However, it is super expensive now and hasn't become cheaper. The final solution proposed is "small scale" local power generation.

Energy and Civilization: A History

Energy and Civilization: A History by Vaclav Smil

How has energy influence the course of history? This book takes a look at the history of humanity from the perspective of energy. Almost all energy consumed originates from the son. Plants are able to utilize photosynthesis to (somewhat inefficiently) convert this to biomass.) Animals get energy from these plants.  Early hunter gatherers would expend a significant amount of energy to get enough food to support themselves. Agriculture led to the ability to harness more energy. 

With humans working beyond subsistence, additional sources of energy could be found. Animals were domesticated and served to harness other sources of energy. Biomass (such as trees or dung) was burned to produce heat. The wind was harnessed via windmills and sailing ships. More efficient ways of harnessing energy included harnesses fossil fuels such as oil and gas. These were portable and had high energy density, but also take much longer to replenish than other sources.

Wars have been fought, regimes have tumbes and many societal changes have occured due to energy. Sometimes it is due to availability of types of energy in one location. Other times, technological innovations help to harness energy better. The world still only harnesses a small fraction of the available solar energy with fairly low efficiency. 

This book is fairly long, and tries to cover an entire history of the inter-relation and evolution of energy and civilization. It could probably still go into much greater detail. It is an interesting topic that does serve as the basis for much of culture.

How the World Really Works: The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We're Going

Vaclav Smil does not attempt to advocate for a certain position to "save the earth". Instead, he provides the facts explaining how things work so that everyone can make better decisions. His focus is on energy and its usage. By looking at the evolution of energy use, we can see that policies of drastic fossil fuel cutbacks or hoping for "miracle tech" are not likely to provide a short term fix for climate change.

Energy use has undergone some significant changes. At first, humans provided the energy for all of their activities. Food was hunted or gathered and did not require much additional attention. Agriculture and animal domestication resulting in increase energy needs that were provided by humans and animals. Wind and water were harnessed in limited quantities as was the burning of wood or other items. Not until the late 1800s was coal and fossil fuel used extensively. The high energy density coupled with increased efficiency made these viable for transportation and other work.

Today we use huge amounts of fossil fuels. Some areas are easy to transfer to other usages. Electricity production can be switched to renewable sources such as solar and wind. However, these sources do not provide continuous power. (For instance, solar does not work well when there is high demand for evening cooling.) Other areas are more challenging. Jet fuel is a dense source of energy. We don't have an alternative that is sufficiently light to power an airplane.

The more hidden area of fossil fuel consumption are more challenging to uncover. Plastic and fertilizers produced from fossil fuels are heavily used in agriculture. We are able to feed a large number of people with little human effort thanks to these fuels. This has enabled most of our population to live in cities and be part of the "information economy". If we immediately removed fossil fuels from agriculture, much of the world would starve. There are changes that can be made to reduce fossil fuel dependence, but they are difficult to scale to a large population. Reducing meat consumption would reduce grain needs. Going back to traditional agricultural practices result in reduced yields and require more labor. 

Our buildings, gadgets and devices all require energy. Concrete and steel are the backbones of production. There are huge amounts of energy required in the extraction of raw materials and production. There are many other elements that are integral to the production and use of our modern products. These need to be mined, transported and processed. These are located in different parts of the world.  There is also a large amount of energy that is needed simply to produce turbines or solar panels.

In addition to understanding energy use, it is good to understand probabilities of various events. We tend to be very bad at overestimating the likelihood of extreme, rare events. For instance, the odds of being killed in a terrorist event or a mass shooting are much lower than that of being killed in a car crash. Novel pandemics happen with some regularity. The probability of death is higher with older people, yet older people already have a higher probability of death from other causes. People that die in pandemics often have other comorbidities. We tend to focus on the novel thing that we can't control even while we fail to put efforts into the things we can control individual.

Scientists have known about climate change for over a century. Only recently has it been hyped as an existential crisis. The fear mongering often results in unrealistic solutions.  There are extreme arguments on one side and denial on the other. Expecting society to meet a target based on a model may be unrealistic. Would we just stop concrete production and let our infrastructure fall apart? We would need many people in the cities move to farms, only there is not enough land available. Recapture solutions would be huge undertakings that would suffer from the typical problems of large infrastructure projects. Solutions must be global. Patting oneself on the back for reducing carbon emissions does not help if other parts of the world are increasing emissions. We also can't expect one part of the world to not want the comforts that another part enjoys. It will take understanding to come to a solution.

The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America's Grasp

Putin is smart. Natural resources are important. The United States has benefited from having the dollar as the world currency for trading oil.

Russia has a lot of natural resources and is not very found of the United States. Putin has not had much respect for Bush or Obama. However, he did seem to get along fine with Trump. (Did he really like Trump, or just think he was easy to manage?) Putin does come across as a bully and is willing to use "KGB" techniques to get things done. There have been cases of political rivals being poisoned as well as "framed" bombing attempts and propaganda. However, he is much more calculating than a mere bully. He has a long term plan. He is well educated (with a PhD) and has spent plenty of time in the political system. He will "play by the rules" in a manner that suits him. He was able to take down oligarchs that were not toeing the line by convicting them of past fraudulent behavior. (Pretty much everyone accumulated their wealth through misbehavior, but only those that get on his bad side are subject to persecution.) The analysis is especially poignant today as parts of Ukraine are being invaded (or as he says "being protected with peacekeeping forces.)

Russia possesses a great deal of natural resources. It provides much of the oil and gas for Europe. However, this must go through pipelines. The "deals" with cheap energy had both benefited and hurt Ukraine. Things get worse when Russia cuts off the spigots. Russia also has the ability to impact other parts of Europe by curtailing shipments. 

There are also many other regions rich in natural resources, yet poor in governance. Saudi Arabia is an important one that has an economy based almost entirely of oil and pilgrimages. However, the oil production has not been keeping pace with population growth, leading towards tensions.

The United States evolved to be the default world currency. Most energy transactions are in dollars. The dollar tends to be the reserve currency for foreign nations. Countries will often get dollars for the oil and then use those dollars to buy US debt. This helps the US to have access to cheap goods (but at the expense of a depressed internal manufacturing economy.) As countries such as China and Russia broker deals among themselves without dollars, that leaves the US in a more precarious situation. The economic boycott of Iranian oil had made things worse for the US in that it showed players how they can bypass the US to trade.

Our economy consumes large amounts of energy. This will leave us at least somewhat dependent on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future. The dollar is at risk as other currencies become more common. The book did not cover crypto, which could be an existential threat on two levels (both as a means for settling transaction as well as an excessive consumer of electricity.)  Renewables have their issues and nuclear is subject to a Russian dominance of uranium. There are plenty of challenges detailed in this book without much in the way of easy solutions. (Would heading the author's suggestion to hoard goal really work?)

Energized

Energized is a Russia-American spy thriller set in a near-future science fiction universe. The Arab's have nuke their oil fields wrecking havoc on energy supplies. The world is trying rapidly to produce alternative energy sources, however, it is slow moving. Russia with its oil supplies has emerged the big winner. Meanwhile a space object slipped out of its orbit and started coming towards earth. Through some manipulation this was made to be a second moon. It provided an ideal base for harvesting the sun's energy and beaming it back to earth. This could be a solution to the energy needs of the planet. However, there are environmental concerns. These come to a head when some "terrorists" manage to gain control and start beaming down energy on alternate power sources to destroy them. Our protaganist just happened to be on a mission there at the time and is able to help defeat the bad guys with the help of his new girlfriend and the guy who secretly sent the moon there in the first place. The restore everything, make the world safe and make sure the Russian bad guy is zapped by his own medicine. Now more energy will be available and people will be free to continue their conspicuous consumption. (As an aside, it is mentioned that if we just reduced some of the excess consumption, none of this would be needed.)

It is a fairly conventional thriller plot wrapped in a cautionary tale of the environment. It comes down squarely on the side of rapid new technology as the solution for energy problems. However, it does caution against over-dependence on a single source of power - especially when it is controlled by less-than-desirable entities.