Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things

Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things by Dan Ariely

During Covid, Dan Ariely got attacked by those opposed to Covid policy. He had given some satirical discussion about healthcare that were taken out of context and used as bait. His "half beard" made him recognizable and subject to ridicule by those that did not like current Covid policy. Many of these people would latch on to "conspiracy theories" and could not be convinced otherwise. Ariely attempted to find out what drove people to believe irrational things.

There seemed to be a pattern to "misbelief." People would start with some objection. They may feel wronged or didn't like how things were happening. Then they would go online and after a few searches they would find some sites that seemed to support their position. Then they would dig deeper. Other sources would provide deeper validation. These would often start with some degree of credibility, but be missing certain features of respectability. (It may be something that looks like a medical organization, but is actually just a propaganda group.) Then people find their community. Others support their belief and provide the support they need. The community members often have an outward portrayal of intellectual humility, but inwardly are not willing to change their own mind, but they want others to change their mind. They see others that change their mind or even align with the enemy as outcasts. That makes them unwilling to change their own minds even if they realize they may be mistaken.

The book focuses on the fringe misbelievers. However, the same symptoms are present throughout society. Even in science, the orthodoxy may be insular and not intellectually humble enough to accept changes. Most conspiracy theories start with at least some grain of truth. When mainstream thought accepts falsehoods as a way of getting its point across it opens up the conflict. During the outset of Covid, government officials initially said masks were not useful and that schools should stay open. Later officials pivoted, despite the science not changing. Officials knew that masks helped slow the spread, but used falsehoods to preserve the supply. They also knew it was best to keep schools open due to past pandemic experience. However, they ended up closing them in the name of stopping the spread more due to emotional appeals. "Science" was used to back up what were primarily political decision. Science against the orthodoxy was discredited. This forced many "underground" and did more to harm outcomes. (If the government had lied about lockdowns, why trust them regarding vaccines?) Today, we often see any extreme weather event blamed on climate change even if there is not justification. Is this attempt of public persuasion just enabling climate change denial?

Stuff They Don't Want You to Know

Most conspiracy theories have some basis in truth. When people dismiss these theories out of hand, the proponents point to the facts and justify their continued belief in the theory. This book explores many common conspiracy theories and some of the facts behind them.

There are some people that see contrails as a means of poisoning the population. They point out that there are now more and larger contrails. The general public will dismiss this out of hand. Air travel is now much more common. Commercial aircraft are concentrated on certain routes, thus increasing the presence of contrails. The conspiracy theorists are not dissuaded. The US government has in fact conducted past secret experiments to see if there could be ways of impacting populations through the clouds. These were done during the peak of the cold war and were kept totally secret. Urban areas were a target (as they wanted to see if it could be done over soviet cities.) 

Other conspiracy theories connect a few "true" items to jump to a conclusion. There were rumors that Church's Chicken or a cheap sodas would poison blacks or make them infertile. These products were sold primarily in poor and black neighborhoods. If people wanted to target a certain population, these products would be a good way to do it. Past attempts at eugenics had targeted "inferior" populations for elimination. Put these two together and we have a conspiracy theory.

The book does a great job of providing the details behind many other conspiracy theories. Some conspiracy theories have a little bit of truth with a lot of conjecture, while others contain a significant amount of truth, with only a small amount of guesswork. The best way to debunk these is to fully understand where they come from and the parts of the theories that are true.

Plague of Corruption: Restoring Faith in the Promise of Science

After reading Plague of Corruption, I do feel we have a problem with science. However, the problem is very different than what the author advocates. 

The author claims that the federal government and big pharma are interested in protecting their financial interests. They will stop at nothing to prevent opposing view. (The author implies that there have been a number of scientists that have been assassinated by big companies to silence their research.) She claims that she has been silences because she has attempted to blow the whistle on the dangers of vaccine production and our blood supply. 

The book covers many shady experiences that have happened to her that have happened to her. She was "silenced", lost her research data and cannot find any scientific research work. She identified problems with using other animals as vectors for vaccine production. She worries that vaccines may help lead to long-term lingering problems in our bodies. There are also concerns with our blood supply. She then claims that this offended the government and caused her to lose her livelihood. Now she is focussed on claiming damage from vaccines. She documents a few cases that she sees as indicative of malfeasance in the vaccine courts. Then at the end, she proposes alternatives. We should drink deuterium and smoke pot. (Hmmm. She talks about her religion and appeals to the right wing anti-vaxers, yet bookends it with a Kennedy intro and marijuana. I guess this is to get both the right and left?)

There are some legitimate claims in this book. However, there is also a ton of anecdote used to exaggerate rare occurrences. Suppose everything in the book is correct and we implement the desired solutions. There will be some huge class action lawsuits. Many lawyers will get extremely rich. People will stop getting vaccinated. A huge number of people will die from diseases that had been all but eliminated. 

The big problem I see is the legal system that encourages all of this. There is this underlying expectation of "perfection". That just does not exist in the real world. The "6 sigma" standard would still leave 3400 defeats in a billion instances. With vaccines widespread, we would expect to have directly linked negative outcomes. There would also be an even greater number of coincidental outcomes. However, the positive result is much more difficult to identify. The vaccine court is a positive step. We should extend that to other areas of society. Right now there is always a quest to identify "deep pockets" to assign blame. What if we put more personal responsibility in the system? If something wrong happens that incurs a great cost have a simple way to allow for compensation.

There is almost always a way to retrospectively look back and say "if somebody would have done something, it wouldn't have happened." This is often enough to win a court case. However, it does little to help out society. We need to be able to just say "something bad happened". There may be something that we can do to limit from happening in the future. However, we must balance that against what good is done. Our current litigiousness makes it less likely that we will have needed improvements. In the case of COVID-19 vaccinations. A few rare blood clots resulted in the suspension of Johnson and Johnson vaccines, even though people were more likely to die on the drive to get vaccinated than from blood clot. (There were likely more people that died from Covid-19 due to delayed vaccinations than from the negative impact of the vaccine. However, the blood clots have anecdotes, while the survivors don't.) It perversely becomes in the public interest to suppress science that shines a negative light on vaccines so that more people can get vaccinated. People are just really bad with math and make bad decisions. If as a society, we shifted away from this legal expectation of perfection, we could actually spend more effort on identifying imperfections and helping to fix them. There are likely many improvements to vaccines that can be made. We need to open up society to allow it.

The financial incentives should also be addressed. There is a lot of money in the pharmaceutical industry. Government sponsored research can be used to seed profitable drug businesses. However, getting a drug on the market is an extremely expensive endeavor. A big company with deep pockets is needed to usher things through the process. There is an expectation of extreme safety. Drugs can be subject to great lawsuits if people have problems. (Opioid manufacturers were shut down not because of problems with the drugs, but because the drugs worked so well that people abused them.)  If we want more vaccines and drugs we need to allow research to continue and problems to be addressed. However, we should also go back to look at our society as a whole. Why are we always looking for a drug to cure us? Why not focus more on the lifestyle changes that can help?

I am Number Four

Mogadore had let their planet go to waste. They sought to destroy the planet Lorien to gather their resources. Nine children escaped the planet to earth. The Mogadorians, too, are on earth trying to destroy them. However, the children have charms that mean they can only be killed in order, and they have done a good job hiding. I Am Number Four centers on the fourth of these. HE has realized that the other three have died by tatoos that have appeared. He has been moving about with his caretaker, Henri. Anytime there is something that may cause them to be noticed, they move. They try to live in rural places and slip under the radar. He finally starts to develop friends in Florida when something happens that makes them move. This time, he adopts the name John Smith and lives in Ohio. Alas, things start to get complicated. He gets bullied by a football player, and then falls in love with a girl. He also befriends a boy that is into aliens and conspiracy theories. At first, John tries to blend in, but as he develops his special powers, he uses them to save his friends. He has to tell them, and can't lie under the radar. Eventually, he is found out and a battle royale ensues. Quite a different coming of age story.
in the process, we learn that many of the human advancements came from Loriens. Even earth language was provided. Many of the important figures in history were caused by human/Lorien cross breeding. This helps explain how they could fall in love. The unfolding narrative works really well. There are some clues (like the special character of the dog, Bernie Kosar), that are guessable before the characters learn about it. This helps add to the fun.