Showing posts with label vaccines. Show all posts
Showing posts with label vaccines. Show all posts

Saturday, December 07, 2024

The Messenger: Moderna, the Vaccine, and the Business Gamble That Changed the World

The Messenger: Moderna, the Vaccine, and the Business Gamble That Changed the World by Peter Loftus

Moderna started out as a brash biotech, trying to find uses for a novel mRNA technology. The company was able to raise significant amounts of funding, but did have a bad IPO. It also had a reputation for working employees very hard. When the COVID-19 pandemic came about, they were ready to quickly develop a vaccine. Then they came to the challenges of running a big clinical trial and produce large quantities. With the government assistance, they they were able to go through the process must faster than normal. The vaccine was a success (though Pfizer beat them to market with a similar mRNA vaccine.) The vaccine worked and mRNA seemed to be better than "old" vaccine technology. Will this be the future of vaccine development? 

Friday, July 02, 2021

Plague of Corruption: Restoring Faith in the Promise of Science

After reading Plague of Corruption, I do feel we have a problem with science. However, the problem is very different than what the author advocates. 

The author claims that the federal government and big pharma are interested in protecting their financial interests. They will stop at nothing to prevent opposing view. (The author implies that there have been a number of scientists that have been assassinated by big companies to silence their research.) She claims that she has been silences because she has attempted to blow the whistle on the dangers of vaccine production and our blood supply. 

The book covers many shady experiences that have happened to her that have happened to her. She was "silenced", lost her research data and cannot find any scientific research work. She identified problems with using other animals as vectors for vaccine production. She worries that vaccines may help lead to long-term lingering problems in our bodies. There are also concerns with our blood supply. She then claims that this offended the government and caused her to lose her livelihood. Now she is focussed on claiming damage from vaccines. She documents a few cases that she sees as indicative of malfeasance in the vaccine courts. Then at the end, she proposes alternatives. We should drink deuterium and smoke pot. (Hmmm. She talks about her religion and appeals to the right wing anti-vaxers, yet bookends it with a Kennedy intro and marijuana. I guess this is to get both the right and left?)

There are some legitimate claims in this book. However, there is also a ton of anecdote used to exaggerate rare occurrences. Suppose everything in the book is correct and we implement the desired solutions. There will be some huge class action lawsuits. Many lawyers will get extremely rich. People will stop getting vaccinated. A huge number of people will die from diseases that had been all but eliminated. 

The big problem I see is the legal system that encourages all of this. There is this underlying expectation of "perfection". That just does not exist in the real world. The "6 sigma" standard would still leave 3400 defeats in a billion instances. With vaccines widespread, we would expect to have directly linked negative outcomes. There would also be an even greater number of coincidental outcomes. However, the positive result is much more difficult to identify. The vaccine court is a positive step. We should extend that to other areas of society. Right now there is always a quest to identify "deep pockets" to assign blame. What if we put more personal responsibility in the system? If something wrong happens that incurs a great cost have a simple way to allow for compensation.

There is almost always a way to retrospectively look back and say "if somebody would have done something, it wouldn't have happened." This is often enough to win a court case. However, it does little to help out society. We need to be able to just say "something bad happened". There may be something that we can do to limit from happening in the future. However, we must balance that against what good is done. Our current litigiousness makes it less likely that we will have needed improvements. In the case of COVID-19 vaccinations. A few rare blood clots resulted in the suspension of Johnson and Johnson vaccines, even though people were more likely to die on the drive to get vaccinated than from blood clot. (There were likely more people that died from Covid-19 due to delayed vaccinations than from the negative impact of the vaccine. However, the blood clots have anecdotes, while the survivors don't.) It perversely becomes in the public interest to suppress science that shines a negative light on vaccines so that more people can get vaccinated. People are just really bad with math and make bad decisions. If as a society, we shifted away from this legal expectation of perfection, we could actually spend more effort on identifying imperfections and helping to fix them. There are likely many improvements to vaccines that can be made. We need to open up society to allow it.

The financial incentives should also be addressed. There is a lot of money in the pharmaceutical industry. Government sponsored research can be used to seed profitable drug businesses. However, getting a drug on the market is an extremely expensive endeavor. A big company with deep pockets is needed to usher things through the process. There is an expectation of extreme safety. Drugs can be subject to great lawsuits if people have problems. (Opioid manufacturers were shut down not because of problems with the drugs, but because the drugs worked so well that people abused them.)  If we want more vaccines and drugs we need to allow research to continue and problems to be addressed. However, we should also go back to look at our society as a whole. Why are we always looking for a drug to cure us? Why not focus more on the lifestyle changes that can help?

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Bad Advice: Or Why Celebrities, Politicians, and Activists Aren't Your Best Source of Health Information

Bad Advice is written to both the consumer and producer of scientific information. He draws from his experience working in science and communicating to the public. He openly details many of the instances where he did not communicate as well as he wished he could have. (Going on the Oprah show as the "corporate" foil to an emotional woman is usually not a recipe for success.) He has done extensive research on vaccines which has caused him to wade in to the anti-vax minefield. 
One of the hallmarks of science is being proven wrong. A good scientist will find that many of their previous findings are no longer true. This does not necessarily mean that anything has changed other than our understanding of phenomena. This is especially true in medicine. There are so many variables in play that a particular "miracle cure" for some may later be proven to be a death sentence for others. A good scientist will rarely present absolutes, instead presenting "most likely" probabilities. It is fairly easy to show that something is associated with something else. However, the null "no correlation" hypothesis can only be proven if every possibility is analyzed, a practical impossibility. These "degrees of certainty" to no go well with a public that loves unchanging absolutes.
People also like to trust information from public figures. These people may have little understanding of the science involved. However, their fame and strong opinions can cause misinformation to spread like wildfire. Even scientists can get involved with the misinformation - especially when they become closely attached to an idea. Andrew Wakefield is a case in point. He published studies showing a link between vaccines and autism. He achieved a great deal of renown for this and started an anti-vaccine movement. However, his findings were not replicated. There were also found to be flaws in his science. He was discredited, yet continued to stand behind anti-vaccine work. Many people continue to believe in his work because they have seen autism arise in children shortly after they received vaccines. (Alas, this appears to be coincidental - autism is often first visible at the same age that vaccines are given.) The vaccine work may be doing more to harm autism research by leading the public down a wild goose chase. Is it possible that we later do find a link between autism and vaccines? We can't rule it out. However, that does not mean that it is a place we should focus our efforts. 
We also suffer from the "science glut" in society today. There is so much research done. Anything that can get media attention will help with reputation and potential funding. The government provides a lot of basic research funding. However, corporations and foundations also provide additional funding. Scientists also need to work with companies to help commercialize products. This can create conflicts of interest. It can also cause the appearance of conflicts of interest even where they do not occur. Scientists can walk in a minefield when they go out in public. Testifying before the government can be even worse. Members of congress have their own motives. They are often looking for confirmation of their beliefs rather than honest communication. How do we go about making sure we get good policies in spite of this? 
Science is far from perfect. The focus on logical reductionist experimental discovery can conflict with actual lived experiences. There are so many factors in play with human health that it can be impossible to model all of them together. Actual science is probabilistic. However, what we see communicated tends to be absolute. Would it help if we had a standard way of distilling data to the public? Something that has been verified in 20 different studies is stronger than something that has only been seen once. However, the "once" will get all the publicity. The lay public rarely sees data on time frames and sample sizes that are key to understanding science. How can we communicate detailed probabilistic data to a society that wants absolute answers?