Random College Football Thoughts

So far the college football bowl season has been going good for a change. A few thoughts:

I guess they belong

Ohio State was the last of four teams in the college football playoff. Boise State was the "group of 5" team that squeezed into the access bowl. Both one close games, that really weren't all that close.

PR firms don't help on the football field

Baylor hired a PR firm to plead their case for inclusion in the playoff. They had only lost one game and beat the other one-loss team in their conference, therefore they should be in the playoff. What the conveniently did not mention was that they also lost by two touchdowns to West Virginia - a team that TCU beat. And that victory over TCU? Well, it was come-from behind win by 3 points at Baylor. If you go by Sagarin's example of a 3 point home edge, that amounts to a tie. A quick eye test shows that TCU looks like the better team. They also had a stronger non-conference schedule, with the game against Minnesota. The playoff committee saw that also and had TCU ranked higher than Baylor. Alas, Baylor played spoiled brat, and claimed it should be conference champion and thus be in the playoff. Luckily, Ohio State provided an easy way out. Its dominant performance in the Big 10 championship game allowed it to take the final playoff spot. The rankings could then show Baylor ahead of TCU. However, the result was largely meaningless as they would both make New Years games. TCU then pummeled Mississippi, while Baylor lost as Michigan State managed a come from behind win. The law of averages to the rescue.

Boise State to the rescue

Marshall had left the playoffs in a pickle. They were undefeated, but they hadn't played a strong schedule. The playoff rankings barely even included them. But they had not lost. Florida State was also undefeated and seemed a shoe in, despite barely squeaking by many of its opponents. Luckily, Eastern Carolina defeated Marshall in overtime, freeing things up. Boise State was conveniently the Mountain West champion and had only two loses. They had the brand reputation. Everybody heard of them and nobody would complain if they played in a "big bowl". It was also very convenient that they lost a game to Air Force early in the season. Without that loss, Boise's only loss would be to Mississippi. That's the same team that gave Alabama its only regular season loss. It would make for a nice controversy if Boise and Alabama both won. Luckily, the Air Force loss meant there was no argument for playoff inclusion. Boise's victory over Arizona further showed that Boise belonged with the Big Boys.

Florida State really was that bad

It was a good thing we had 4 teams in the playoff this year. Otherwise, we may have ended up with a Florida State/Alabama snooze-fest. One was the lone undefeated team. The other had a few recent championships under their belt. How could you go against either? Ugghh. Luckily, there were four teams. Oregon nicely avenged their lone loss to Arizona. Alabama and Ohio State were one-loss conference champions that were both playing well. TCU also looked great. That would make a great playoff. Alas, we still had to have some politics. Florida State was the undefeated defending champs. They had to be in, even though they were not that great. There was also the bickering in the Big-12. Put the two together and Florida State takes TCU's position. Oregon promptly destroyed Florida State and Ohio State held on to beat Alabama. Was the SEC really deserving of all its championships or did it just get the luck of the draw?

How do the conferences look?

Looking at the Conference Rankings, Conference USA was on top. Alas, none of their teams were ranked. Perhaps we will see some ranking love in the final poll? The Pac-12 was the best of the major conferences. The two loses were both by less than 10 points in Arizona bowls. Oregon also won a semifinal bowl game. The SEC was the next major conference. Alas, their position was held up by the bottom of the conference and the "weaker" eastern division. Ranked teams were 2-5, with all teams in major bowls losing. Big-10 ended up at .500, with victories in the big bowls. Sun Belt, Mountain West and American were all right at or below .500, with the lone ranked team (Boise) vindicating itself well. ACC and Big-12 did finish above the MAC. Can you say overrated?

Conference Hierarchy

With all the shuffling around of conferences, a clear hierarchy is being established among conferences:

1) First Tier: Schools come to these conferences to stay:
Big-10 [Has taken new members from Big-12, ACC, Big East]
Pac-12 [Has taken new members from Mountain West and Big-12]
SEC [Has taken new members from Big-12]

2) Second Tier: Conferences have some issues. Some teams may want to leave, but teams from lower tier would love to join.
Big-12 [Has taken new members from Big-12 and Big East/Mountain West (TCU had planned to move to Big East, but was still in MWC when moved)
ACC [Almost exclusively raids Big East]

3) Big East
Has historically been the transfer station from Conference USA to ACC. Recently has sent some teams to Big-12 and Big-10 as well. Now is getting desperate and taking teams from just about all the conferences below.

4) Mountain West and Conference USA
Picks the cream of the MAC and Sun Belt crop. (MWC has historically raided the WAC, but there is not anything left to raid.)

5) MAC and Sun Belt
New teams to the FBS ranks are likely to land here

6) WAC
Dead to the football world now

On field performance somewhat mirrors the hierarchy, though with a few changes.

1) SEC: Unless there is a very compelling reason, they'll play in the championship
2) Big-10, Pac-12, Big-12: A team from here would be a credible champion
3) ACC: If there is no one better above, they'll make it
4) Big East: They have a chance if there are no better options
5) Mountain West: If everyone else is having a down year, and a team here has fewer losses than everyone else, there is a chance they can go.
6) Conference USA: Same with MWC, but slightly lower
7) MAC and Sun Belt. Good luck. Perhaps if everyone else has a couple loses and a team from here goes undefeated with a victory over Alabama, there may be a chance.

Conference action and reaction

The Pac-10 proposing adding half the Big-12 to form a mega conference.
The Mountain West finally reacts to his by adding Boise State
Pac-10 adds Utah and Colorado to form the Pac-12
The Big-10 acts to add Nebraska
BYU proposes to become independent in football and WAC in other sports
Mountain West reacts by grabbing the Hawaii, Nevada and Fresno from WAC
BYU goes independent anyway and joins WCC in all other sports
TCU leaves Mountain West for Big East
Syracuse and Pitt bolt Big East for ACC
Texas A&M leaves Big-12 for SEC
TCU joins Big-12 instead of Big East
Mountain West and Conference USA merge football operations
Big East proposes pilfering Air Force and Boise from MWC, UCF, Houston and SMU from CUSA and independent Navy.

Who's the winner so far? TCU. They are now getting more money in a geographically closer conference.
Colorado and Nebraska are are washes. They were geographical outliers in the Big-12. They are now outliers in the Pac-12 and Big-10. They have moved from a train-wreck of a major conference to more stable conferences.
Utah also moved up to a much more prestigious conference. They fit in the conference's geographic footprint. However, they lose many of the nearby rivals from the mountain west.
Texas A&M, Syracuse and Pitt all left a mess of a "major" conference for another one with more stability. They are arguably in the footprint, but are much more outliers now.

As for the conferences, the MWC and Big East show the problems with dillydallying. Boise was rumored to join the MWC for a long time before they finally got the invite. It finally came right before Utah left. And Hawaii, Fresno and Nevada were gut reactions to BYU's departure. What if they would have all came earlier? Then the conference may have renogatiated the TV deal and been in a position of power.

The conference USA merger had also been rumored for a long time before it happened. What if MWC and CUSA merged before the conference shuffling?  Perhaps they could have aligned their football in two subconferences, with the "major" and "midmajor" division. They would be more in a position to poach the Big-East than the other way around.

As for the Big East, they had talked about adding teams for a year, but not much happened. Schools like Navy would have jumped at the opportunity years ago, but now they are hesitant. What will happen?

And the whole Missouri question.

What could be some possible outcomes?

Missouri could dart for the SEC and the Big-12 stays at 9 - at least for a season. This would give Texas an opening to schedule a yearly A and M rivalry game. (No excuses here!) However, it might help the Big East to survive.

I do hope the Big East dies. They have been an embarrassment to the BCS. However, Boise might find the prospect of a sure BCS bowl to good to miss - even if it is only for a season or two. However, it does not seem like it will help them much. They have pretty much gone to the BCS most years when they have won. Perhaps a better solution would be for the BCS to guarantee a BCS game for the top 6 ranked conference champions - provided they meet the at large criteria. This could prevent the ugliness of the Big East stinkers, while still providing a slot when they do have good teams.

What can the Mountain West pull off?

For the second year in a row, the Big-12 managed to emerge from the brink of extinction. The Big East just lost two of its football programs. Last season, the Mountain West invited a new school to join, only to lose another school a couple days later. Then the conference attempted a raid on the WAC in a failed attempt to prevent a defection of another school. They later added another former WAC school as a football only member. Then another MWC team announced a defection to the Big East. But, the conference is still a "has been", the best of the "mid-majors" conferences. Can the conference jump in to the realm of the big boys and become a BCS automatic qualifier? I'd bet if the Pac-10's Larry Scott were running things, that would already be the case. Instead, we have rumours of the Big East trying to poach more programs. The Big East? Yes, schools would fly across the country to play football teams that usually rank worse than the Mountain West. But there is more, they get to send all their other programs out there. Sure, its a top notch basketball conference, but do all athletes really need to go out there? And what of these rumors of Air Force going to the Big East in football only? Ugh. Could the MWC engineer a BCS-sharing mechanism? Partner with the Big East to have a "playoff" between the best team in each conference for the BCS spot. Both conferences get the benefit of the extra money of the playoff game. The MWC gets the advantage of guaranteed access. However, the Big East stands to lose by requiring the money to be split among the additional MWC teams. But, if the Big East can be convinced they will lose the autobid soon, this could work. TCU could be a wildcard here. If they dart to the Big-12 (which makes a lot more sense than the Big East, or even MWC), then the Big East would need to struggle just to call itself a football conference. Adding Navy and possibly army could help a bit. However, beyond that, you start to hit the baggage. Would the basketball members really want an East Carolina or UCF? And why does a conference made up of former Conference USA members deserve the bid? If they suddenly become better due to the BCS money, it just goes to show further problems with the system. On the other hand, maybe the Big East will get gutsy. With Connecticut, Rutgers and West Virginia all showing wandering eyes, the conference needs some big names. How about plucking Boise State in football only? If the MWC objects, they may seek a "soft landing" in the WAC for the other sports. Add in BYU and Navy, and the conference does not look half bad. Doesn't really look "east", but when the Big 10 has 12 teams and the Big 12 has 9 or 10, it is right for the course in college sports. Which conference will pull it off? We should know within a year or two...

College Football Conference Rankings

Conference Rankings using "similar team" methodology:
1. Big 10
2. WAC
3. Mountain West
4. Pac 10
5. ACC
6. Big East
7. SEC
8. big 12
9. Conference USA
9. MAC
11. Sun Belt


Rankings are computed by comparing the results of teams against "similar teams" from other conferences. Games against independent FBS are not included, while only loses to FCS teams are included. A good win is a victory over a team with an equal or better record in conference play. A bad loss is a loss to a team with an equal or worse record in conference play. Loses to FCS teams also count as bad loses. (Of course, comparing this seasons records would be better, but we don't know them yet.)

This helps to exclude "body bag" games where a conference champion blows out the cellar-dweller from another conference. A game such as Alabama's victory over San Jose State really tells us nothing about the quality of the two conferences. After all, the WAC teams had no trouble disposing of San Jose State, while Alabama had no trouble disposing with the rest of the SEC.

The games that are included are ones such as Michigan State's victory over Middle Tennessee. Michigan State finished in the middle of the Big-10, while MTSU was at the top of the Sun Belt. This is a better indicator of the overall strength of one conference versus others.

The MAC, Sun Belt and Conference-USA are clearly the "lower conferences". None have quality wins over non-conference foes, while many have ugly loses to teams from other conferences with worse records.

The Big East is slightly above these, with Syracuse's victory over a similar Akron team from the MAC.

The ACC does not have any directly comparable games - mainly due to a schedule full of FCS games. However, they did lose the two games to teams within a game of their teams. Similarly, the Pac-10 didn't win or lose any games against similarly ranked teams. The closest was the loss to by UCLA to Kansas State.

The Big 12 and SEC have some wins over the "lower 3" conferences. However, they both have ugly loses to FCS teams.

The only unblemished conferences are the Big-10, WAC and Mountain West. All three have quality victories over Big East teams. The Big-10 also has sunbelt and MAC victories.







Big-12
Bad Loss: FCS: Kansas lost to FCS North Dakota State
Good Wins: CUSA: Texas Tech (5-3 in conference last year) over SMU (6-2 in conference)
MAC: Iowa State (3-5) over Northern Illinois (5-3)

SEC
Bad Loss: FCS: Mississippi lost to FCS Jacksonville State
Best wins: Sun Belt: Georgia over Louisiana Lafayette (both had 4-4 conference records)
Sun Belt: Auburn over Arkansas State (both had 3-5 conference records)
CUSA: South Carolina (3-5) over Southern Miss (5-3)

Big East:
Bad Losses: WAC: Cincinnati (7-0) to Fresno (6-2)
MWC: Pittsburgh (5-2) to Utah (6-2)
B10: Michigan over Connectiut

Best Wins: MAC: Syracuse (1-6) over Akron (2-6)

Big 10:
Best Wins:
Sun Belt: Minnesota (3-5) over Middle Tennessee (7-1)
MAC: Michigan State (4-4) over Western Michigan (4-4)
Big East: Michigan (3-5) over Connecticut (3-4)
No bad loses

Pac 10:
No unexpected or comparable wins or losses (Kansas St over UCLA is closest)

ACC:
No unexpected or comparable wins or losses (LSU over North Carolina and Boise over Virginia Tech are the closest)

Mountain West
Wins: Big East: Utah (6-2) over Pittsburgh (5-2)
loses: none

WAC:
wins: Big East: Fresno State (6-2) over Cincinnati (7-0)
loses: none

Sun Belt:
Bad Loses: B10: Middle Tennessee (7-1) to Minnesota (3-5)
SEC: Louisiana Lafayette (4-4) to Georgia (4-4)
SEC: Arkansas State (3-5) to Auburn (3-5)
Good Wins : none

Conference USA:
Bad Loses: SEC: Southern Miss (5-3) to South Carolina (3-5)
B12: SMU (6-2) to Texas Tech (5-3)

Mid American
Bad Loses: B12: Northern Illinois (5-3) to Iowa State (3-5)
BE: Akron (2-6) to Syracuse (1-6)

Err, What happened out west?

Opening weekend, and the Pac-10 wasn't all that impressive. The mountain west showed they were good at top, and perhaps made a good "rushed invite".

Cal and Stanford engaged in a bit of Bay Area vs. Sacramento football. Alas, the Sacramento reps are all I-AA, and the Bay Area dominated. Not much to say here. But, at least they are keeping their cupcakes local. Can't say the same about ASU with their win over Portland State.

Then we move on to the 'mid-major' cupcakes. Arizona had the guts to open AT Toledo. They also managed to show why the MAC doesn't get much respect. Oregon's blowout of New Mexico shows that the Mountain West has depth problems (and the New Mexico had made a horrible coaching hire.) However, before the PAC-10 can gloat, imagine what a TCU vs. Washington State game would have been like.
USC vs. Hawaii could almost be ranked as a disappointment. Sure USC won, but they
played no defense. A Hawaii team that was not supposed to have a chance was actually in it for most of the game.

Against the top of the mountain west, Oregon State lost a close one to TCU and Washington lost a close one to BYU. Neither was totally unexpected, but the Pac-10 did lose a chance to make a statement in the two biggest games. Both were essentially home games for the Mountain West teams. (Sure, Oregon State's Jerry-dome game was technically neutral, but it was only about 2000 miles closer to Ft. Worth than Corvallis.) All 4 teams expect to go bowling this year and could reasonably earn their conference championships (though only TCU is favored.) However, it was the MWV that did the impressing.
so
Against the Big-12, the Pac-10 also laid a goose egg (not so good for a conference they nearly destroyed.) Nobody really expected Washington State to do much against Oklahoma State. But Kansas State over UCLA? I guess UCLA was on the road. Maybe hald the team showed up at the wrong Manhattan...

Overall:
3-0 vs I-AA
0-2 vs Big-12
1-2 vs Mountain West
1-0 vs WAC
1-0 vs MAC

As for the Mountain West, Colorado State lost the Colorado rivalry game and UNLV lost to Wisconsin (though they were in the game until the third quarter.) New Mexico embarrassed itself at Oregon. The top 3 teams made great showings against BCS-AQ leagues, and all the rest beat up on I-AA schools.
Overall:
2-1 vs Pac-10
1-0 vs Big East
0-1 vs Big-12
0-1 vs Big-10
3-0 vs I-AA

The WAC probably had the best opening of the western conferences. Utah State nearly pulled off the huge upset over Oklahoma. This was not supposed to be close. Hawaii was also closer than expected in the USC game. Fresno did manage to take care of business vs. Cincinnati for the best win of the opening. San Jose State managed to get its paycheck in its body bag loss, and everyone else beat up on I-AA. We still have to wait for Monday for the big game with Boise State.
1-0 vs Big East
0-1 vs Pac-10
0-1 vs Big-12
0-1 vs SEC
3-0 vs I-AA
??? vs AC

TCU vs. Boise State in BCS championship?

In 2008, Boise State played TCU in the Poinsettia bowl
In 2009, they had a rematch in the Fiesta Bowl
With the game moving later and later, the BCS championship game could be in line this year.
Never before has one non-AQ team made it to the game - could we have two?
We should know a little more by the end of this weekend.
Both play Oregon State early in the season. Oregon State tends to lose its early games, then finish strong. If Oregon State goes undefeated in all but these two games, that will help the ratings, and eliminate the Pac-10 from consideration.
Pitt is a favorite in the Big East. They have already managed to lose to Utah. The Big East is not much of a threat for the championship game, but if Pitt runs the table for the remainder of the season and Utah finishes with a lone loss to TCU, it could only help things.
Also in the Big East, Cincy is playing Fresno. A Bulldog victory could help the WAC, especially if the Bearcats do well the remainder of the season.
For the ACC, Virginia Tech is the favorite. If Boise State takes care of business and Tech wins everything else, it will keep the power position.
Just three more conferences to go - and those happen to include every currently eligible team that has played in the past few championship games.
For the Big 12, ideally Oklahoma would win the championship - after losing to Utah State and Air Force. Ok. That's probably not too likely. However, with a 4 game stretch against Florida State, Air Force and at Cincinnati before the showdown with Texas, there is ample time to flop. They could easily overlook Air Force or Cincy. Lets have them fall to the Falcons before beating the longhorns. The longhorns will then take their vengeance out on Nebraska who will in turn clobber Oklahoma in the Big-12 championship game. (Though the cornhuskers would already had two loses - with another non-conference loss to Washington in Seattle) Every Big-12 team would have at least two loses - including some to MWC teams, thus keeping them down in the standings.
The Big-10 could be a little more of a challenge getting to two loses. However, it would also be tougher justifying a one-loss team over an undefeated TCU or Boise. Wisconsin opens with a late game at UNLV. They could easily fall asleep here as the Rebels 'ASU' them. This would wipe out any chance of the championship game, while helping the MWC. If they in turn take vengeance on Ohio State and Iowa, that leaves only Penn State as a possible interloper. However, with road games at OSU, Alabama and Iowa, Penn State is likely to fall at least twice. This would pretty much eliminate the Big-10.
Now on the SEC. This conference has won the last few championships - including one by a two-loss LSU. How do you exclude them? Florida could be the first one out of the picture. They did not look too hot against Miami of Ohio. Next week, South Florida comes to town. The Bulls have a habit of starting strong, only to flop down the stretch. They could pull off a victory here. With consecutive games against Alabama and LSU, the gators will probably have at least one more loss.
For LSU, there is always the possibility that North Carolina looks past the distractions and somehow manages to win. However, more likely come in a conference game. LSU is ranked low enough now that one loss should be enough to keep them out of the top spot. Similar story for Arkansas, who may stumble to a fired up Texas A&M.

Alabama is ranked first and would need a couple good loses to keep them out of the top spot. The road game against Arkansas (right before the Florida game) could be a great chance to slip up. Add in a hungry Auburn in the rivalry game and they could be out of the championship picture.

With these games, it could be possible for a Boise vs. TCU championship game - especially if some MWC and WAC teams make a good showing in some of their other non-conference game. With this being the last year they are in separate conferences, this is the last year they an really continue the rivalry in the post season. The matchup requires a lot of things to happen "just right", but doesn't require any massive upsets (though some could really help.) By Tuesday we should have a more clear picture of the possibilities.

Where does the Mountain West go?

The quick invites to Nevada and Fresno are looking a little on the stupid side now, but at least Utah State didn't accept an invite. The Mountain West tried using the best sticks in their arsenal to hang on to BYU. Alas, this only seemed to make BYU more eager to dart. Perhaps if the MWC were more willing to address BYU's concerns, they might still have them in an eight team conference.

As it is, Mountain West is a 10 team conference that still has aspirations of a BCS autobid. A ten team league with Boise, TCU, BYU, Utah and Air Force on top would probably been able to secure the bid. Surprisingly, the defections of Utah and BYU have only minimal impact on the "objective" criteria. Thanks to the strong showings of Boise and TCU the past two seasons, the MWC still meets two of the three BCS inclusion criteria.
For the first, the highest ranked team in the conference needs to finish in the top 6 of conferences. TCU's 4th place ranking last season obviously fit the bill. For 2008, Boise's 9th or TCU's 11th are both good for 5th best conference.(Utah's 6th would have been 4th.)

For the third criteria, the teams ranked in the top 25 are put through a convoluted formula to obtain a number. A conference needs to score at 50% of the score of the highest ranked team to meet this criteria. For 2009, the "one-day" mountain west (with Boise before defections) was the top team. Even without BYU and Utah, the high rankings of TCU and Boise the last two seasons keep them in good condition. The invitations of Fresno and Nevada actually hurt in this criteria, as the score is weighted by conference size. However, even the new Mountain West should easily meet it.

The second criteria is the big problem. It takes the final regular season computer ranking of all teams in the conference. To automatically get the bid, a conference needs to finish in the top 6. Using the Sagarin conference ratings as a proxy, the MWC is a pretty solid 7th best conference. Number 6 is Big 10, which, alas has upgraded with Nebraska. Behind MWC are Conference USA and WAC. The WAC is pretty much out of the picture with the MWC grabbing their 3 best teams. Those three teams help the MWC to maintain their led over C-USA, however, they actually bring them further away from the Big-10.

A conference is able to seek an "exemption" if they are in the top 5 in criteria one or two and the top 7 in the other and have a score on number 3 that is at least 33% of the top team. The "new look" MWC easily meets all those criteria. However, this leaves things in the political realm. The MWC containing the state of Utah had a strong case for deserving the exemption. They also had a US Senator pushing strongly for opening the BCS. The new MWC? The on-field product is not quite as good and the political pressure not nearly as strong. The audience is also an issue. The top teams draw an average of less than 40,000 fans per game. TCU, Air Force, Fresno and Boise all draw in the 30,000s. New Mexico, San Diego State, Colorado State and UNLV are in the 20,000s while Wyoming and Nevada are in the 10000s. (BYU has far and away the leader at 64k, with Utah 2nd at 45k) Every other BCS AQ conference has multiple teams ranked higher than the highest ranked MWC team (TCU).

Market sizes also don't look so hot. MWC has a strong hold on the Fresno and Boise markets. There is also a lock on the states of Nebraska and Wyoming, as well as a strong showing in New Mexico. Unfortunately all of these are rather small markets, many with significant newcomer population (not many people in Nevada have a connection to the schools.) For major markets, MWC has toeholds. TCU is in Dallas, though it is second fiddle to the Texas, Tech, and A&M (as well as in competition with SMU). Colorado State and Air Force are both somewhat close to Denver, though they are second to Colorado in a fairly week college football market. San Diego State is a "lesser" school in San Diego. There are probably more people their routing for the LA schools.

Numerically, the MWC is in the same condition for BCS auto-qualification as it was before BYU and Utah left. It is still a possibility. However, obtaining an exemption has become much more difficult. The best scenario now would be for the bottom of the conference to rise to the occasion and be worthy of a BCS conference.

Conference Expansion: WCC version

The WCC comes out as one of the big winners in the latest rounds of conference expansion. WCC adds BYU and its significant fan base, just in time for TV rights negotiations. St. Marys, Gonzaga and BYU have all been regular NCAA tourney teams, so this should become one of the premier "mid-major" conferences. People in Utah will also suddenly find a lot of teams on their radar.

As for BYU, this is likely a temporary stop. I'd imagine they have an easy out, and probably a fairly lopsided revenue distribution agreement. (I'd guess that BYU keeps a good chunk of their own money, and probably reserves some rights to television broadcasts.) The WCC also gives them a stable conference with all private religious schools.

BYU will be the "big Kahuna" of the WCC. In both student body size and basketball stadium size, BYU is about the size of the four largest WCC schools combined.
Most of the WCC schools are located in major metro areas with significant LDS and BYU alumni populations. Local BYU fans could probably fill some of the smaller stadiums on their own. This could be a boon to ticket sales (perhaps BYU and some of the premier non-conference games would be packaged with some of the "lesser" games.)

Being the big guy in the conference lets BYU dictate their terms. Key among them is "no games on Sunday." (It's probably hard for a religious conference to turn that one down.) As a little guy in a big conference, they may have much more trouble with that one.

BYU also gets some good exposure. San Diego. Portland. San Francisco. They may be playing in small arenas, but they will be in the biggest cities on the west coast. WCC also does well in other sports like soccer and tennis. The MPSF will likely hold some of the other sports that are not in the WCC. This seems to be a strong west coast push by BYU. If the independent football thing works well, they may just decide they like it. Otherwise, they may be nothing more than a short term blip in one of the most stable conferences.

Basketball Arena Size

BYU	22700
Gonzaga	6000
San Francisco	5300
San Diego	5100
Portland	4852
Top 4 current WCC combined	21252

Number of Students

BYU	32955
Loyola Marymount	8972
San Francisco	8722
Santa Clara	8377
San Diego	7548
Top 4 current WCC combined	33619

Conference Expansion

College football conferences will have a different look in 2011:

Big 12 : 11 teams (minus Nebraska)
Big 10 : 12 teams (plus Nebraska)
Pac 10 : 11 teams (plus Utah)
WAC : 6 teams (minus Boise, Nevada, Fresno)
MWC : 11 teams (minus Utah, plus Boise, Nevada, Fresno)

There is still some flux in this. BYU is mulling going independent. Colorado may still find a way to get out of the Big 12 a year earlier. Nevada and Fresno may end back in the WAC for a year. Hawaii, Utah State and Louisiana Tech could also leave the WAC.
However, as it stands now, the one previous 11 team conference now has 12 teams and the ability to stage a championship. Three additional conferences are one team short of the number, while one conference teeters on the brink of extinction.
As the dust is settling, the Big 10 seems to be better off, while the entire college football landscape west of the Mississippi is in shamples.
Perhaps the biggest shame is poaching going on in the Mountain West and WAC. College football could really use another western BCS conference. The Mountain West was poised to be the conference, especially with the additional of Boise State. However, with the defection of Utah and possibly of BYU those hopes are looking weaker. The Mountain West picked up a couple of ok WAC teams, but now has a large conference to deal with. Perhaps the best option now would be to simply start over. Grab the best teams from the Mountain West and WAC to make a quality conference. (Wait, wasn't this supposed to be what the Mountain West was all about?)
Who would you drop? UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State are horrid in football, yet all made the NCAA basketball tournament. Wyoming is in a small market, but they did make a bowl last season. Colorado State is in one, of the largest markets in a conference. However, they don't have much a hold on that market (which they also somewhat share with Air Force.) They could be dropped, leaving only teams that made a bowl or the NCAA tourney. With Boise, Nevada and Fresno, you'd have a somewhat respectable 10 team conference, but one still with some football weakness.

The Big 12 and Pac 10 pose some additional issues. The Pac-10 has already assigned Utah a "probationary" membership, so they can probably limit the amount of money doled out to the new mouth until the championship game is going. In the Big-12, Colorado will be ponying out a good amount of change to leave, so its not like they will be hurting.

Will the Big-12 go for expansion? BYU could be a logical addition. They could help bring in revenue and easily compete in the Big-12 north. That gives another season to look for another team. (unless Missouri decides to leave.) A second team is more of a challenge. Air Force could provide a travel partner for BYU and restore the Colorado toe-hold. Going in to Texas is another option, though that could create geographical (and Texas politcal) issues. Houston and TCU both have respectable programs. Though it would be odd to have Houston competing in the North.

Another option would be to take two Texas schools and make an entirely Texas south division, while bumping the Oklahoma schools to the north.

Perhaps even more overzealous would be a Southwest Conference revival. Add SMU, TCU, Houston and Rice [uh, for academics] to the south division, bump the Oklahoma schools up north and add BYU and Air Force. TCU and Texas would be the powers in the south, with Houston, Tech and A&M nipping at their heals. In the north, Oklahoma, BYU and Oklahoma State would probably dominate, though Air Force and Missouri should be respectable.

Conference USA can grab New Mexico, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech to complete their 12.

These leaves 11 western teams from the WAC/MWC. Perhaps a IAA moveup can be added to get a championship game going. (Or Hawaii may go it solo.)
Boise, Fresno, Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, San Jose State, Utah State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming.

And then in the next season, Texas A&M will bolt to the SEC and Texas will head to the Pac-10, and everything will start all over again.

Perhaps we will see BYU stay in the Mountain West and the BCS bid come through.

Maybe the WAC will find a way to survive.

Where will Utah State and Hawaii end up?

Will the Pac-10 and big-10 continue expanding?

What about the Big east?

There is also the matter of being an incumbent BCS conference. You get more money. You have an easier time scheduling. You find it easier to stay BCS.

Perhaps we should just create 'football-only' conferences. Teams that can fill stadiums and win games go in the top conferences. Other teams go in lower conferences and move up if they are successful.

Can the Big 12 be saved?

Nebraska is rumored to be ready to bolt to the Big 10. Colorado is rumored to be ready to bolt to the Pac-10. (Hmmm. Big-12 with 10 schools and Big-10 with 12 schools. Perhaps they can engineer a name swap.) The remainder of the Big-12 south (minus Baylor) has a rumored invite to the Pac-10.

Can the Big-12 save itself?

One option would be to just continue the conference with 10 teams. This would create some issues with staging a Big-12 championship game in Dallas in 2013, though that could probably be worked out. The conference would lose one national power in Nebraska and one potentially large media market in Denver. However, most of the strength would be intact. They may lose the ability to fill one of the lower tier bowls. However, they would likely be able to continue placing two teams in the BCS bowls. The loss of revenue from the championship game would hurt. However, the breakup fees and the fewer teams could leave each team about even financially for the short term.

They could also go aggressive. Invite BYU and Air Force. Both fit nicely in north division and have strong local followings as well as national followings. (If Colorado goes to the Pac-10 without the Big-12 south, it will likely go with Utah.) But why stop there when they can go to the first mega conference. TCU and Houston or New Mexico could be added to the south division. Boise State and Colorado State (or Wyoming) be picks for the north division. (Boise would give the most immediate credibility in football, though it is more of a geographic outlier.)

The new Big-16 could probably argue that the north division deserves the automatic bid that the Mountain West was on the cusp of receiving. Thus, the 2 BCS bids would be locked up. The conference would add to its stranglehold on the Texas market. Utah would be a significant market addition. Colorado would remain fairly strong. Idaho, Wyoming or New Mexico would add somewhat smaller markets.

On the football field, the north would probably remain the weaker part of the conference. However, it will likely be highly competitive, with plenty quality programs.

A Big-12 expansion would leave the mountain west out of existence. San Diego State, UNLV and any other remainders could join the WAC. This is probably nearer to their current level of competition as well as being closer to geographic rivals.

Could the Big 12 pull it off and survive? It seems unlikely now, but we will see how it all fleshes out.

Winners and losers in NCAA conference expansion

The Big-10 is exploring adding an additional team. The Pac-10 is looking at expanding. The Mountain West would like a BCS bid. Who will be the winners and losers?

Most Likely Winner: Utah. In almost all scenarios they would end up ahead. If the Big-10 poaches a Big-East school, that will improve the position of the Mountain West vs. Big East. A team like Pitt would be almost impossible to replace. If the Mountain West added Boise State it would make them shoulders above the Big East and just about guarantee an automatic bid (perhaps even replacing the Big East's bid.)
If the Pac-10 expanded, Utah is one of the most likely candidates, geographically, economically and culturally. The only Pac-10 expansion scenario that wouldn't include Utah would be an unlikely Texas bid - which could leave Utah in prime position to take a spot in the Big-12.
The worst-case scenario for Utah would be for Notre Dame to join the Big 10. This would free up a "basketball only" spot in the Big East, and let the Big East grab another basketball/football team. While replacing Pitt with East Carolina would hurt the conference, adding East Carolina would help the conference in football.

Most Likely Loser: Big-12. The Big-12 could very well be on life-support if the expansion scenarios play out. The top candidates for expansion are schools on the periphery of the Big-12: Missouri and Colorado. If either of these leave, they take a whole state with them, with little opportunity to get it back without stretching way beyond the current 'footprint'. There is pretty much no other big program in Missouri. In Colorado, the conference could attempt to hold its position by seeking Colorado State or Air Force. However, they have much less sway on the Denver TVs than Colorado. And if the Mountain West gets an automatic bid, they would have little incentive to switch conferences.

TCU, Houston, Rice and SMU would be good candidates to join the conference, bringing it closer to the old Southwest Conference. They all have shown signs of life, playing competitive football in at least one of the last two seasons. TCU is the powerhouse of them, and could probably compete for the Big-12 championship right off the bat.

The big problem is that they don't add any new markets to the conference. With Texas and Texas A&M, the Dallas and Houston markets are well covered. While TCU adds the Ft. Worth market to the Mountain West, they add pretty much nothing to the Big-12. A move to the conference would be a media loss for both.

Assuming Colorado and Utah go to the Pac-10, BYU would probably be the best possible replacement. They travel well and have a significant following, without being two far out of the conference footprint. They would also fit nicely in the northern division.

If Missouri and Colorado leave, things get dicier. Perhaps the conference says goodbye to markets and goes for TCU and another Texas team (or even all 4 to expand to a 14 team conference) Or perhaps the conference becomes west oriented with Air Force and BYU. At least that gives them a presence in those markets.

The timing matters: If the Big-10 said today that Pitt really is going to join the conference, the Big East would have to start moving quickly. With the eight non-football teams, the conference really can't easily expand to a 12 team football conference. Perhaps they "combine" with the Mountain West to create an east-west championship game for a BCS bid. This could forestall a Utah/BYU jump. Or maybe the Big-12 jumps the gun and invites TCU in as an insurance policy. Or maybe there is a total left-field move with unexpected teams jumping conferences.