The Big-10 is exploring adding an additional team. The Pac-10 is looking at expanding. The Mountain West would like a BCS bid. Who will be the winners and losers?
Most Likely Winner: Utah. In almost all scenarios they would end up ahead. If the Big-10 poaches a Big-East school, that will improve the position of the Mountain West vs. Big East. A team like Pitt would be almost impossible to replace. If the Mountain West added Boise State it would make them shoulders above the Big East and just about guarantee an automatic bid (perhaps even replacing the Big East's bid.)
If the Pac-10 expanded, Utah is one of the most likely candidates, geographically, economically and culturally. The only Pac-10 expansion scenario that wouldn't include Utah would be an unlikely Texas bid - which could leave Utah in prime position to take a spot in the Big-12.
The worst-case scenario for Utah would be for Notre Dame to join the Big 10. This would free up a "basketball only" spot in the Big East, and let the Big East grab another basketball/football team. While replacing Pitt with East Carolina would hurt the conference, adding East Carolina would help the conference in football.
Most Likely Loser: Big-12. The Big-12 could very well be on life-support if the expansion scenarios play out. The top candidates for expansion are schools on the periphery of the Big-12: Missouri and Colorado. If either of these leave, they take a whole state with them, with little opportunity to get it back without stretching way beyond the current 'footprint'. There is pretty much no other big program in Missouri. In Colorado, the conference could attempt to hold its position by seeking Colorado State or Air Force. However, they have much less sway on the Denver TVs than Colorado. And if the Mountain West gets an automatic bid, they would have little incentive to switch conferences.
TCU, Houston, Rice and SMU would be good candidates to join the conference, bringing it closer to the old Southwest Conference. They all have shown signs of life, playing competitive football in at least one of the last two seasons. TCU is the powerhouse of them, and could probably compete for the Big-12 championship right off the bat.
The big problem is that they don't add any new markets to the conference. With Texas and Texas A&M, the Dallas and Houston markets are well covered. While TCU adds the Ft. Worth market to the Mountain West, they add pretty much nothing to the Big-12. A move to the conference would be a media loss for both.
Assuming Colorado and Utah go to the Pac-10, BYU would probably be the best possible replacement. They travel well and have a significant following, without being two far out of the conference footprint. They would also fit nicely in the northern division.
If Missouri and Colorado leave, things get dicier. Perhaps the conference says goodbye to markets and goes for TCU and another Texas team (or even all 4 to expand to a 14 team conference) Or perhaps the conference becomes west oriented with Air Force and BYU. At least that gives them a presence in those markets.
The timing matters: If the Big-10 said today that Pitt really is going to join the conference, the Big East would have to start moving quickly. With the eight non-football teams, the conference really can't easily expand to a 12 team football conference. Perhaps they "combine" with the Mountain West to create an east-west championship game for a BCS bid. This could forestall a Utah/BYU jump. Or maybe the Big-12 jumps the gun and invites TCU in as an insurance policy. Or maybe there is a total left-field move with unexpected teams jumping conferences.
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