Random College Football Thoughts

So far the college football bowl season has been going good for a change. A few thoughts:

I guess they belong

Ohio State was the last of four teams in the college football playoff. Boise State was the "group of 5" team that squeezed into the access bowl. Both one close games, that really weren't all that close.

PR firms don't help on the football field

Baylor hired a PR firm to plead their case for inclusion in the playoff. They had only lost one game and beat the other one-loss team in their conference, therefore they should be in the playoff. What the conveniently did not mention was that they also lost by two touchdowns to West Virginia - a team that TCU beat. And that victory over TCU? Well, it was come-from behind win by 3 points at Baylor. If you go by Sagarin's example of a 3 point home edge, that amounts to a tie. A quick eye test shows that TCU looks like the better team. They also had a stronger non-conference schedule, with the game against Minnesota. The playoff committee saw that also and had TCU ranked higher than Baylor. Alas, Baylor played spoiled brat, and claimed it should be conference champion and thus be in the playoff. Luckily, Ohio State provided an easy way out. Its dominant performance in the Big 10 championship game allowed it to take the final playoff spot. The rankings could then show Baylor ahead of TCU. However, the result was largely meaningless as they would both make New Years games. TCU then pummeled Mississippi, while Baylor lost as Michigan State managed a come from behind win. The law of averages to the rescue.

Boise State to the rescue

Marshall had left the playoffs in a pickle. They were undefeated, but they hadn't played a strong schedule. The playoff rankings barely even included them. But they had not lost. Florida State was also undefeated and seemed a shoe in, despite barely squeaking by many of its opponents. Luckily, Eastern Carolina defeated Marshall in overtime, freeing things up. Boise State was conveniently the Mountain West champion and had only two loses. They had the brand reputation. Everybody heard of them and nobody would complain if they played in a "big bowl". It was also very convenient that they lost a game to Air Force early in the season. Without that loss, Boise's only loss would be to Mississippi. That's the same team that gave Alabama its only regular season loss. It would make for a nice controversy if Boise and Alabama both won. Luckily, the Air Force loss meant there was no argument for playoff inclusion. Boise's victory over Arizona further showed that Boise belonged with the Big Boys.

Florida State really was that bad

It was a good thing we had 4 teams in the playoff this year. Otherwise, we may have ended up with a Florida State/Alabama snooze-fest. One was the lone undefeated team. The other had a few recent championships under their belt. How could you go against either? Ugghh. Luckily, there were four teams. Oregon nicely avenged their lone loss to Arizona. Alabama and Ohio State were one-loss conference champions that were both playing well. TCU also looked great. That would make a great playoff. Alas, we still had to have some politics. Florida State was the undefeated defending champs. They had to be in, even though they were not that great. There was also the bickering in the Big-12. Put the two together and Florida State takes TCU's position. Oregon promptly destroyed Florida State and Ohio State held on to beat Alabama. Was the SEC really deserving of all its championships or did it just get the luck of the draw?

How do the conferences look?

Looking at the Conference Rankings, Conference USA was on top. Alas, none of their teams were ranked. Perhaps we will see some ranking love in the final poll? The Pac-12 was the best of the major conferences. The two loses were both by less than 10 points in Arizona bowls. Oregon also won a semifinal bowl game. The SEC was the next major conference. Alas, their position was held up by the bottom of the conference and the "weaker" eastern division. Ranked teams were 2-5, with all teams in major bowls losing. Big-10 ended up at .500, with victories in the big bowls. Sun Belt, Mountain West and American were all right at or below .500, with the lone ranked team (Boise) vindicating itself well. ACC and Big-12 did finish above the MAC. Can you say overrated?

bcs number two

Blog Poll

Looking at the results so far this season, it is pretty clear that LSU is the best team. They beat the champions of two BCS conferences. They also went undefeated and won their own conference.

Number two is less certain. For every team with one or two losses, LSU beat them them or beat a team (that beat a team...) that beat them. Most of these wins were by a touchdown or more. (Sorry Pac-12). However, there are a few "narrow cases". Alabama was only beat by 3 points. Getting to Oklahoma State or Boise State requires a couple narrow wins.

So, Boise State, Alabama and Oklahoma State seem like the likely targets.

Who should be the #2 in the championship game?

Alabama had a narrow loss, but it was at home. And they lost directly to LSU. Even if Alabama won the championship game, there would be the argument that LSU is better. (Even with a loss, LSU would still have a better resume, and an equal record.)

Boise State lost by three points to TCU, but it was at home.

Oklahoma State, has the worst loss. However, it was by less than a touchdown, and to get the LSU chain, you also need another narrow loss by less than a touchdown. The Oklahoma State loss can also be chalked up to mitigating circumstances. It was played on the road immediately after two basketball coaches died in a plane crash. If it wasn't "football", this game could have easily been postponed. A victory by either team would be a more clear cut champion.

So, of course, this being the BCS, we will see Alabama in the championship game. Oh well.

LSU beat Alabama (3pt)
LSU beat Arkansas which beat Texas AandM (4pt) which beat Iowa State which beat Oklahoma State (6pt) (which beat all Big 12)
LSU beat Oregon which beat Stanford (which beat USC)
LSU beat Arkansas which beat Texas AandM (4pt) which beat Baylor which beat TCU (2pt) which beat Boise State (3pt)
or LSU - Arkansas - Texas AndM which beat SMU which beat TCU
LSU beat West Virginia which beat Marshall which beat Southern Miss (6pt) which beat Houston
LSU beat Arkansas which beat South Carolina which beat Clemson which beat Virginia Tech
LSU beat West Virginia which beat South Florida which beat Notre Dame which beat Michigan State (which beat Wisconsin and Michigan)
LSU beat Georgia (which beat Georgia Tech which beat Clemson)

Boise State to the SEC

Today, Texas A&M was officially welcomed as a 13th member of the SEC. Now they just need to add Boise to get to 14. The current "future" membership of the top 7 football conferences: Big East: 7 (- Pitt, Syracuse, + TCU) Big 12: 9 (- Texas A&M) ACC: 14 (+ Pitt, Syracuse) SEC: 13 (+ Texas A&M) Mountain West: 10 (+Fresno, Hawaii, Nevada, - TCU) Big 10: 12 Pac-12: 12 The odd numbers could be the most concern. The Big-12 is probably the least "in need" of expansion. After all, there was no real "loss" in television market with A&Ms departure. Prior to this season, the schools were all scheduling 4 non-conference games, so it would just be a switch back to there. The Big-12 also has lawsuit-happy Baylor. Would a team really want to risk being stuck there based on the whims of Baylor? Even worse, with the conference going through two consecutive seasons on the brink of extinction, would it be worth the risk to join? The Big East, however, could be desperate. Seven teams does not seem like a conference. With Connecticut, Rutgers and West Virginia looking for the exit door, TCU could easily get cold feet. (How would that feel to finally get to an AQ conference, only to have the conference yanked from under them?) They need to make some bold expansion moves fast. Perhaps the ACC should just invite some combination of the three and put the Big East out of its misery. TCU could then find its way back to the MWC or perhaps the Big-12. Thirteen is an unlucky number, so the SEC needs to act quickly to add another team. How about Boise State? The constant knock on BSU is that they can win a big game, but couldn't make it in the weekly grind of the SEC. Why not give them a chance to prove it? They are a name brand with a good following. They are located nowhere near the southeast, have a smaller stadium and smaller reputation than any of the SEC teams, but would make for some interesting football games. Even better yet, they could do something similar to international soccer and have some spots reserved for "top programs" from outside the SEC. If they win, they stay in the conference. If they lose, they are "relegated" back to their old conference. For now, they could grab Boise, along with a couple other "top" teams. (say some combination of East Carolina, Houston, Central Florida, BYU and Navy). They finish in the top half of the conference, they stay. They finish in the bottom half, they are gone. During this time, they "remain" a member of their old conference in other sports, and share some of their "bounty" with the home conference. If they enjoy a long period of SEC success, they may get invited to stay. Otherwise, they simply get rotated out. This scenario can be a win-win for everyone. The SEC gets the quality opponents with extended media markets. It also reduces the chance of great teams bolting for competitive conferences. The mid-major conferences get the showcase their top teams. These teams get the access they have been craving. (They can win the SEC and become national champions with their work on the field.) The increased interest should produce a cash cow. The rolling nature of the agreement provides greater access and money for many schools without harming the take of the "established powers". While the farm system may be a great idea, there are probably plenty of other realignment moves we will see first. Which conference will be the next one to act? If the Big East does not pull something quickly, it will be in danger of extinction. Will some of the conference USA teams by willing to "move up". (Maybe it wasn't such a good thing to boot Temple.) Or perhaps the Big East will decide it is not worth it and throw in the towel on football. It can return to a mostly religious school basketball league (similar to the WCC out west.) Connecticut and Rutgers will with the ACC, WVU the SEC, with the others knocking on the door of Conference USA for a chance back in. The BCS bid can float in the ether, giving another at-large bid. Or, better yet, it can become a "floating" bid, guaranteed to the top-ranked conference champion or independent, thereby ameliorating BCS critics, while still keeping the big-money open.

Losing by winning?

Stanford and Boise State both had decisive wins in the first week of college football. However, they both saw their chances at a national championship take a hit.

TCU lost to Baylor, taking the luster off of Boise's other future marque matchup.

Oregon fell hard to LSU, while Notre Dame lost to USF. There go a couple BCS-quality opponents. Then there was Oregon State's loss to an FCS team. But Oregon State always does poorly at the start of the season, so they may be able to recover.

Perhaps Georgia goes on to win the SEC, giving Boise a real shot at a national championship rematch. Oregon, Notre Dame and TCU could all find their way back to the top-10, their early season losses quietly disregarded.

Or we could just see another SEC champion...

Football as a sport...

Nevada beat Boise State at home. In the process they likely cost the school a hefty BCS paycheck and likely relegated themselves to a more lowly bowl.

Nice reward, eh?

A few years ago, LSU raised the poppycock about not losing a single game in regulation (they lost two in OT) to lobby their way in to the national championship game. This was the same year that Hawaii ended the season undefeated without a chance to play. LSU won the game, while Hawaii (after losing their coach) got stomped by Georgia. It seemed like vindication of the naysayers. However, what would have happened if it were the other way around?

The next season, Alabama lost the SEC championship game, and was then destroyed by undefeated Utah in a BCS game. This time the story was "letdown". Hmm... It seems the SEC always has a way to spin things their way.

Back to the WAC, Nevada likely ended the hopes of a BCS payday for the WAC. Boise and Nevada will likely rank far ahead of anyone from the Big East that might make a BCS game. They will likely be ahead of the ACC champion also. But their reward is a mediocre bowl. By winning, Nevada may have also won a trip to New Mexico instead of San Francisco. Whopee!

Yet they still played their heart out. And won. Now they can claim bragging rights with a victory over Boise and a tie in the conference standings. The cost? Only a few million for their program. C'est la vie.

BCS dream come true

Alabama was a few touchdowns ahead of Auburn. Then they must have realized, "hey, if we win we might not have an SEC team in the title game." So, like the true southern gent, they keeled over and let Auburn have the game.

Oregon looked like they were having trouble at Arizona. But, hey, the Ducks don't really start to play until the second half anyway. (Notwithstanding the Cal episode - they must have got lost on the way to the stadium there.)

Things looked close, but the crisis was averted. Sure, Oregon isn't in the Big- conference, but at least they are BCS, undefeated, and most important, have gobs of money and fans.

In the late game, the BCS got another dream come true as Nevada defeated Boise. Luckily for BCS-land, Nevada had to travel to Hawaii this year and has a loss to their record. Two one-less WAC teams can enjoy their top-20 rankings and visits to exciting bowl games like the Kraft Fight Hunger bowl. No need to worry the BCS there.

Unfortunately, not all was well in BCS land. The Big East continued its string of ineptitude, leaving Connecticut in the driver's seat for the title. They just have to beat Cincinnati (who is a far cry from last year's team) and USF (who seems to end the season a few weeks before other teams.) Neither game will be easy, but both are possible. That will leave an 8-4 team (i.e. one that does not have enough wins to be an at large team) in the BCS game. Worse yet, they are from a relatively small market that doesn't care much about football. They do have good basketball fans, so there is some hope that they make it out there.

In the best scenario, UConn loses and West Virginia wins, leaving an 'acceptable' 9-3 West Virginia to play in a BCS bowl. But this is the Big East, so it wouldn't be too surprising to see them lose to Rutgers. This could allow Pitt, with a 7-5 record to make it. If Rutgers wins and Cincinnati manages to run the table, the Bearcats could actually share the Big East championship - at 6-6. (However, with this scenario, West Virginia would probably win the tiebreakers.)

Luckily, no one really cares about the Big East in BCS land. They will probably just be the filler for some good traveling at-large Big-10 team to pound.

Boise State over Virginia Tech and WAC power

Boise State knocked off ACC frontrunner Virginia Tech.
Fresno State knocked off defending Big East champion Cincinnati.
And the WAC is supposed to be a weak conference?

A bunch of WAC teams also beat FCS teams.

The loses? The middle of the conference lost close games to top-15 teams, while a predicted last place finisher was blown out on the road to a number 1 team. Suppose these were reverse and instead of San Jose State playing at Alabama, we had Boise State playing a Mississippi school or Vandy on the blue turf. Or have Kansas visit Fresno. Or even Stanford at Hawaii.

In fair fights, the WAC has shown it can compete. Perhaps Boise's president is right that we just need more "home and homes" to compete on a fair playing field.

TCU vs. Boise State in BCS championship?

In 2008, Boise State played TCU in the Poinsettia bowl
In 2009, they had a rematch in the Fiesta Bowl
With the game moving later and later, the BCS championship game could be in line this year.
Never before has one non-AQ team made it to the game - could we have two?
We should know a little more by the end of this weekend.
Both play Oregon State early in the season. Oregon State tends to lose its early games, then finish strong. If Oregon State goes undefeated in all but these two games, that will help the ratings, and eliminate the Pac-10 from consideration.
Pitt is a favorite in the Big East. They have already managed to lose to Utah. The Big East is not much of a threat for the championship game, but if Pitt runs the table for the remainder of the season and Utah finishes with a lone loss to TCU, it could only help things.
Also in the Big East, Cincy is playing Fresno. A Bulldog victory could help the WAC, especially if the Bearcats do well the remainder of the season.
For the ACC, Virginia Tech is the favorite. If Boise State takes care of business and Tech wins everything else, it will keep the power position.
Just three more conferences to go - and those happen to include every currently eligible team that has played in the past few championship games.
For the Big 12, ideally Oklahoma would win the championship - after losing to Utah State and Air Force. Ok. That's probably not too likely. However, with a 4 game stretch against Florida State, Air Force and at Cincinnati before the showdown with Texas, there is ample time to flop. They could easily overlook Air Force or Cincy. Lets have them fall to the Falcons before beating the longhorns. The longhorns will then take their vengeance out on Nebraska who will in turn clobber Oklahoma in the Big-12 championship game. (Though the cornhuskers would already had two loses - with another non-conference loss to Washington in Seattle) Every Big-12 team would have at least two loses - including some to MWC teams, thus keeping them down in the standings.
The Big-10 could be a little more of a challenge getting to two loses. However, it would also be tougher justifying a one-loss team over an undefeated TCU or Boise. Wisconsin opens with a late game at UNLV. They could easily fall asleep here as the Rebels 'ASU' them. This would wipe out any chance of the championship game, while helping the MWC. If they in turn take vengeance on Ohio State and Iowa, that leaves only Penn State as a possible interloper. However, with road games at OSU, Alabama and Iowa, Penn State is likely to fall at least twice. This would pretty much eliminate the Big-10.
Now on the SEC. This conference has won the last few championships - including one by a two-loss LSU. How do you exclude them? Florida could be the first one out of the picture. They did not look too hot against Miami of Ohio. Next week, South Florida comes to town. The Bulls have a habit of starting strong, only to flop down the stretch. They could pull off a victory here. With consecutive games against Alabama and LSU, the gators will probably have at least one more loss.
For LSU, there is always the possibility that North Carolina looks past the distractions and somehow manages to win. However, more likely come in a conference game. LSU is ranked low enough now that one loss should be enough to keep them out of the top spot. Similar story for Arkansas, who may stumble to a fired up Texas A&M.

Alabama is ranked first and would need a couple good loses to keep them out of the top spot. The road game against Arkansas (right before the Florida game) could be a great chance to slip up. Add in a hungry Auburn in the rivalry game and they could be out of the championship picture.

With these games, it could be possible for a Boise vs. TCU championship game - especially if some MWC and WAC teams make a good showing in some of their other non-conference game. With this being the last year they are in separate conferences, this is the last year they an really continue the rivalry in the post season. The matchup requires a lot of things to happen "just right", but doesn't require any massive upsets (though some could really help.) By Tuesday we should have a more clear picture of the possibilities.

Who should play in the BCS championship?

There are five undefeated teams, one one-loss team, and six two loss teams. Florida, the lone one-loss team, has only one 'impressive' victory - over 3 loss LSU, but was blown out by Alabama in the SEC championship game. With this many undefeated teams, it would also be difficult to justify calling a two-loss team a 'champion', so limiting the choice to the undefeated teams seems the logical choice.

One simple way of determining the best teams is to look at who they beat. In this7 way, I've grouped the opponents in to "great teams" (10+ wins), good teams (8+ wins) and winning teams (any teams with a winning record.) I rank the teams by the number of wins in each, giving 5 points for first, 4 for second and so forth. Then the teams with the best counts are the most deserving of the championship. If there is a tie, close games (wins by less than a touchdown) and IAA games are excluded.

By this criteria, Alabama comes out clearly on top. They have a victory over the lone one-loss team. They also have the most victories over winning teams. Somewhat surprisingly, Boise State comes in second. They have a respectable number of victories over winning teams, with no close calls. They also own the victory over the current top-ranked two-loss team (Oregon).

While simplistic (by for example, not including opponents strength of schedule) , this analysis does show Alabama as clearly deserving a spot in the championship game. The second spot, however, could fairly easily belong to any of the other undefeated teams, with Boise State actually appearing the most deserving.

10+ win teams:
1. Alabama: 1
1. Boise: 1
1. TCU: 1
0. Texas: 0
0. Cincinnati: 0

8+ win teams:
1. Texas: 5 (4)
2. Cincinnati 5 (3) 
3. Alabama: 4
4. Boise: 3
5. TCU: 3 (2)

Winning teams:
1. Alabama: 10(7)
2. Cincinnati 7(4)
3. Boise: 6(5)
4. Texas: 6(4)
5. TCU: 6(3)

Alabama: 13
Boise: 10
Cincinnati: 8
TCU: 7
Texas: 7


Texas 
9-3
9-4*
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5*
6-6
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
4-8
3-9

Boise
10-2
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-5x
5-7
4-8
4-8
3-10
2-10
1-11

TCU
10-2
9-3
8-5*
7-5
7-5*
7-4x
6-6
5-7
4-8
3-9
3-9
1-11

Cincinnati
9-3*
9-3*
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5*
4-8
4-8
3-9
2-9x
1-11

Alabama
12-1
9-3
9-3
8-4
7-5
7-5*
7-5*
7-5
7-5
6-5x
5-7
3-9
2-10
 
* - close game (win by less than one touchdown)
x - IAA team