Saturday, September 04, 2010

TCU vs. Boise State in BCS championship?

In 2008, Boise State played TCU in the Poinsettia bowl
In 2009, they had a rematch in the Fiesta Bowl
With the game moving later and later, the BCS championship game could be in line this year.
Never before has one non-AQ team made it to the game - could we have two?
We should know a little more by the end of this weekend.
Both play Oregon State early in the season. Oregon State tends to lose its early games, then finish strong. If Oregon State goes undefeated in all but these two games, that will help the ratings, and eliminate the Pac-10 from consideration.
Pitt is a favorite in the Big East. They have already managed to lose to Utah. The Big East is not much of a threat for the championship game, but if Pitt runs the table for the remainder of the season and Utah finishes with a lone loss to TCU, it could only help things.
Also in the Big East, Cincy is playing Fresno. A Bulldog victory could help the WAC, especially if the Bearcats do well the remainder of the season.
For the ACC, Virginia Tech is the favorite. If Boise State takes care of business and Tech wins everything else, it will keep the power position.
Just three more conferences to go - and those happen to include every currently eligible team that has played in the past few championship games.
For the Big 12, ideally Oklahoma would win the championship - after losing to Utah State and Air Force. Ok. That's probably not too likely. However, with a 4 game stretch against Florida State, Air Force and at Cincinnati before the showdown with Texas, there is ample time to flop. They could easily overlook Air Force or Cincy. Lets have them fall to the Falcons before beating the longhorns. The longhorns will then take their vengeance out on Nebraska who will in turn clobber Oklahoma in the Big-12 championship game. (Though the cornhuskers would already had two loses - with another non-conference loss to Washington in Seattle) Every Big-12 team would have at least two loses - including some to MWC teams, thus keeping them down in the standings.
The Big-10 could be a little more of a challenge getting to two loses. However, it would also be tougher justifying a one-loss team over an undefeated TCU or Boise. Wisconsin opens with a late game at UNLV. They could easily fall asleep here as the Rebels 'ASU' them. This would wipe out any chance of the championship game, while helping the MWC. If they in turn take vengeance on Ohio State and Iowa, that leaves only Penn State as a possible interloper. However, with road games at OSU, Alabama and Iowa, Penn State is likely to fall at least twice. This would pretty much eliminate the Big-10.
Now on the SEC. This conference has won the last few championships - including one by a two-loss LSU. How do you exclude them? Florida could be the first one out of the picture. They did not look too hot against Miami of Ohio. Next week, South Florida comes to town. The Bulls have a habit of starting strong, only to flop down the stretch. They could pull off a victory here. With consecutive games against Alabama and LSU, the gators will probably have at least one more loss.
For LSU, there is always the possibility that North Carolina looks past the distractions and somehow manages to win. However, more likely come in a conference game. LSU is ranked low enough now that one loss should be enough to keep them out of the top spot. Similar story for Arkansas, who may stumble to a fired up Texas A&M.

Alabama is ranked first and would need a couple good loses to keep them out of the top spot. The road game against Arkansas (right before the Florida game) could be a great chance to slip up. Add in a hungry Auburn in the rivalry game and they could be out of the championship picture.

With these games, it could be possible for a Boise vs. TCU championship game - especially if some MWC and WAC teams make a good showing in some of their other non-conference game. With this being the last year they are in separate conferences, this is the last year they an really continue the rivalry in the post season. The matchup requires a lot of things to happen "just right", but doesn't require any massive upsets (though some could really help.) By Tuesday we should have a more clear picture of the possibilities.

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