With all the shuffling around of conferences, a clear hierarchy is being established among conferences:
1) First Tier: Schools come to these conferences to stay:
Big-10 [Has taken new members from Big-12, ACC, Big East]
Pac-12 [Has taken new members from Mountain West and Big-12]
SEC [Has taken new members from Big-12]
2) Second Tier: Conferences have some issues. Some teams may want to leave, but teams from lower tier would love to join.
Big-12 [Has taken new members from Big-12 and Big East/Mountain West (TCU had planned to move to Big East, but was still in MWC when moved)
ACC [Almost exclusively raids Big East]
3) Big East
Has historically been the transfer station from Conference USA to ACC. Recently has sent some teams to Big-12 and Big-10 as well. Now is getting desperate and taking teams from just about all the conferences below.
4) Mountain West and Conference USA
Picks the cream of the MAC and Sun Belt crop. (MWC has historically raided the WAC, but there is not anything left to raid.)
5) MAC and Sun Belt
New teams to the FBS ranks are likely to land here
6) WAC
Dead to the football world now
On field performance somewhat mirrors the hierarchy, though with a few changes.
1) SEC: Unless there is a very compelling reason, they'll play in the championship
2) Big-10, Pac-12, Big-12: A team from here would be a credible champion
3) ACC: If there is no one better above, they'll make it
4) Big East: They have a chance if there are no better options
5) Mountain West: If everyone else is having a down year, and a team here has fewer losses than everyone else, there is a chance they can go.
6) Conference USA: Same with MWC, but slightly lower
7) MAC and Sun Belt. Good luck. Perhaps if everyone else has a couple loses and a team from here goes undefeated with a victory over Alabama, there may be a chance.
Showing posts with label big-12. Show all posts
Showing posts with label big-12. Show all posts
Sunday, December 02, 2012
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Conference Realignment
College football has now aligned itself to five major conferences of 64 teams:
SEC 14
PAC-12 12
Big-10 14
Big-12 10
ACC 14
---------
64
On the football field, the SEC is the clear champion, in terms of on-field performance and attendance. The ACC is the laggard of the Big-5. (Though it is pretty good at basketball.) Looking at football attendance as a barometer for school programs, there is a clear separation of the "big-5" conferences and the "little-5".
The top 50 major teams are all independents or in major conferences. The bottom 35 teams are all in "minor" conferences. The Big-East was always a borderline AQ conference in the BCS. With all the poaching that has been going on, it is now very clearly in the "lower tier".
Are there many big-5 conference teams that shouldn't be there? There are not many teams that are in big conferences, yet are not in the top 64 in attendance. Duke, Northwestern and Vanderbilt are all the "academic" powers in their conferences and are located in major media markets. Duke also has a pretty impressive basketball record TCU's attendance numbers are an aberration due to stadium construction. The most recent attendance would put them closer to the 50s. (They are also sitting in the #5 media market.)
This leaves Washington State, Wake Forest, Baylor and Syracuse as the outliers. Baylor and Syracuse are "right on the border" of being top 64. Baylor also has Texas politics to thank for its position in the Big-12. They both have pretty good basketball programs. This gets us down to just Wake Forest and Washington State as "questionable". Both have had a pretty ugly recent history in football. However, they both have been long term members of their conferences and have well established rivalries.
What changes would you make? Notre Dame and BYU are the two big outliers in the "have nots". Notre Dame already has a non-football membership with the ACC and an in to the "big bowls". (They also have a current "BCS automatic inclusion" clause, but they didn't need to use it due to being first in the standings.) Notre Dame's attendance also exceeds that of all ACC schools. BYU is trickier. The Pac-12 would be a logical place, geographically and attendance-wise, but there are some politics involved. A Big-12 partnership may also make sense.
Beyond the independents, there are no "slam-dunk" options. South Florida is #52. However, it tends to draw a local Tampa audience. Florida State (ACC) and Florida (SEC) both draw from the entire state. Low-caliber academics would exclude the Big-10 or Pac-12. It could be an option if the Big-12 decided to make a run for Florida. However, the quality of the overall sports program lags behind other schools.
East Carolina is in a somewhat similar situation. Geographically, they would fit in the ACC. However, the conference is already loaded with North Carolina schools. East Carolina would lag behind many in academics and non-football sports. SEC lacks schools in North Carolina. However, East Carolina could probably not compete well with the SEC schools. Another Big-12 option?
Connecticut seems like an ideal expansion target. They are in an untapped market (and they could probably claim part of the New York City market also.) Basketball is excellent and football has spurts of quality. Academics are also decent (but lack of AAU membership would turn off the Big-10) AAC would be a logical place to go. However, you get the impression that the AAC is waiting for somebody to get poached before grabbing UConn.
At #61, Central Florida has the same problems as South Florida. At least Orlando doesn't have a pro football team. Hawaii at #63 is in Hawaii. Its a nice vacation, but it is a long way out there. Academics would also be an issue. After that you get Air Force, Fresno State, Navy, UTEP and Boise. Perhaps the national audience of the service academies would appeal to a conference. (The ACC could look at Navy to replace the Maryland market.) Fresno is an academic lightweight in California's central valley. The Pac-12 wouldn't dare go near, but maybe the Big-12 trying to break in to California? (Though of late, #76 San Diego State is out-drawing.) UTEP is in El Paso, which is pretty much the middle of nowhere. Boise has had a lot of football success and is in a growing city.
"Non-Big" Outliers
Notre Dame - 15th in Attendance
BYU - 27th in Attendance
South Florida - 52
East Carolina - 55
UConn - 60
Central Florida - 61
Hawaii - 63
Air Force - 65
Fresno State - 67
Navy - 70
UTEP - 71
Boise - 72
Cinncinnati - 74
Army - 75
San Diego State - 76
Southern Miss - 78
Memphis - 80
Houston - 89
Marshall - 82
New Mexico - 83
"Big Conference" Outliers
Duke - 84
Washington State - 79
Northwestern - 77
Wake Forest - 73
TCU - 69
Vanderbilt - 68
Baylor - 66
Syracuse - 64
Indiana - 62
source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArFVbThT6eb5dHNFUmEyc19DTDJEc25BcVRwOWQzWWc#gid=0 or https://twitter.com/ArtDirectorBYU/status/197162017482743809
SEC 14
PAC-12 12
Big-10 14
Big-12 10
ACC 14
---------
64
On the football field, the SEC is the clear champion, in terms of on-field performance and attendance. The ACC is the laggard of the Big-5. (Though it is pretty good at basketball.) Looking at football attendance as a barometer for school programs, there is a clear separation of the "big-5" conferences and the "little-5".
The top 50 major teams are all independents or in major conferences. The bottom 35 teams are all in "minor" conferences. The Big-East was always a borderline AQ conference in the BCS. With all the poaching that has been going on, it is now very clearly in the "lower tier".
Are there many big-5 conference teams that shouldn't be there? There are not many teams that are in big conferences, yet are not in the top 64 in attendance. Duke, Northwestern and Vanderbilt are all the "academic" powers in their conferences and are located in major media markets. Duke also has a pretty impressive basketball record TCU's attendance numbers are an aberration due to stadium construction. The most recent attendance would put them closer to the 50s. (They are also sitting in the #5 media market.)
This leaves Washington State, Wake Forest, Baylor and Syracuse as the outliers. Baylor and Syracuse are "right on the border" of being top 64. Baylor also has Texas politics to thank for its position in the Big-12. They both have pretty good basketball programs. This gets us down to just Wake Forest and Washington State as "questionable". Both have had a pretty ugly recent history in football. However, they both have been long term members of their conferences and have well established rivalries.
What changes would you make? Notre Dame and BYU are the two big outliers in the "have nots". Notre Dame already has a non-football membership with the ACC and an in to the "big bowls". (They also have a current "BCS automatic inclusion" clause, but they didn't need to use it due to being first in the standings.) Notre Dame's attendance also exceeds that of all ACC schools. BYU is trickier. The Pac-12 would be a logical place, geographically and attendance-wise, but there are some politics involved. A Big-12 partnership may also make sense.
Beyond the independents, there are no "slam-dunk" options. South Florida is #52. However, it tends to draw a local Tampa audience. Florida State (ACC) and Florida (SEC) both draw from the entire state. Low-caliber academics would exclude the Big-10 or Pac-12. It could be an option if the Big-12 decided to make a run for Florida. However, the quality of the overall sports program lags behind other schools.
East Carolina is in a somewhat similar situation. Geographically, they would fit in the ACC. However, the conference is already loaded with North Carolina schools. East Carolina would lag behind many in academics and non-football sports. SEC lacks schools in North Carolina. However, East Carolina could probably not compete well with the SEC schools. Another Big-12 option?
Connecticut seems like an ideal expansion target. They are in an untapped market (and they could probably claim part of the New York City market also.) Basketball is excellent and football has spurts of quality. Academics are also decent (but lack of AAU membership would turn off the Big-10) AAC would be a logical place to go. However, you get the impression that the AAC is waiting for somebody to get poached before grabbing UConn.
At #61, Central Florida has the same problems as South Florida. At least Orlando doesn't have a pro football team. Hawaii at #63 is in Hawaii. Its a nice vacation, but it is a long way out there. Academics would also be an issue. After that you get Air Force, Fresno State, Navy, UTEP and Boise. Perhaps the national audience of the service academies would appeal to a conference. (The ACC could look at Navy to replace the Maryland market.) Fresno is an academic lightweight in California's central valley. The Pac-12 wouldn't dare go near, but maybe the Big-12 trying to break in to California? (Though of late, #76 San Diego State is out-drawing.) UTEP is in El Paso, which is pretty much the middle of nowhere. Boise has had a lot of football success and is in a growing city.
"Non-Big" Outliers
Notre Dame - 15th in Attendance
BYU - 27th in Attendance
South Florida - 52
East Carolina - 55
UConn - 60
Central Florida - 61
Hawaii - 63
Air Force - 65
Fresno State - 67
Navy - 70
UTEP - 71
Boise - 72
Cinncinnati - 74
Army - 75
San Diego State - 76
Southern Miss - 78
Memphis - 80
Houston - 89
Marshall - 82
New Mexico - 83
"Big Conference" Outliers
Duke - 84
Washington State - 79
Northwestern - 77
Wake Forest - 73
TCU - 69
Vanderbilt - 68
Baylor - 66
Syracuse - 64
Indiana - 62
source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArFVbThT6eb5dHNFUmEyc19DTDJEc25BcVRwOWQzWWc#gid=0 or https://twitter.com/ArtDirectorBYU/status/197162017482743809
Monday, September 19, 2011
Can the Big East Be Saved?
The founder of the Big East conference recently died. And at the same time, his conference was dealt a critical blow. With Pitt and Syracuse on their way out to the ACC can the Big East conference be saved? Would anybody want to latch on now in its fallen state?
The conference does still have the reigning men's basketball champ. Even with the losses of two power basketball programs, it remains one of the marquee basketball conferences.
However, football is hanging by life support. With TCU coming on board, they would be left with just 7 football teams. West Virginia is the only one that has a significant long-term national reputation.
A number of schools, such as UCF, are eager to move up to the ranks of the "BCS" leagues. However, should the league implode, or lose its BCS auto-bid, things could be even worse for them. They may want to play it slow.
The first step would be to get some of the football independents on speed dial. Notre Dame would be the obvious coup. They have an interest in having a place to park their non-football sports. They may be willing to add football to help save the league. Or they may just decided to jump to the Big-10.
Navy is in the right geographical footprint, and could easily join as a football-only school. They have a large following and a record of recent success that would help with the BCS standings.
BYU is a new independent with recent football success and a national following. They are not close, but they are eager for the cachet that being in an auto-bid conference would give them. By joining in football only, they get the advantage without having to undo their recent paring of sports in the WCC. If things don't go well, they can go back to being independent.
Hawaii could be another alternative. Their football team is separate from the other sports and may be willing to move. Geographically, it would be a huge mess, but a trip from connecticut to Hawaii in November doesn't sound all that bad.
The football only schools would help strengthen the BCS credentials of the conference, without adding to the large number of basketball only schools. However, there are still basketball schools that need to be replaced, especially if Connecticut also leaves.
This is where the Big-12 comes in. Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor. Invite them now. If Oklahoma jumps ship, have the press conference within the hour. Or better yet, have them join before. That way the Big East is on the offensive and can have more latitude with other schools.
In basketball, the big east is already the first "superconference." Will it stay so in football?
The conference does still have the reigning men's basketball champ. Even with the losses of two power basketball programs, it remains one of the marquee basketball conferences.
However, football is hanging by life support. With TCU coming on board, they would be left with just 7 football teams. West Virginia is the only one that has a significant long-term national reputation.
A number of schools, such as UCF, are eager to move up to the ranks of the "BCS" leagues. However, should the league implode, or lose its BCS auto-bid, things could be even worse for them. They may want to play it slow.
The first step would be to get some of the football independents on speed dial. Notre Dame would be the obvious coup. They have an interest in having a place to park their non-football sports. They may be willing to add football to help save the league. Or they may just decided to jump to the Big-10.
Navy is in the right geographical footprint, and could easily join as a football-only school. They have a large following and a record of recent success that would help with the BCS standings.
BYU is a new independent with recent football success and a national following. They are not close, but they are eager for the cachet that being in an auto-bid conference would give them. By joining in football only, they get the advantage without having to undo their recent paring of sports in the WCC. If things don't go well, they can go back to being independent.
Hawaii could be another alternative. Their football team is separate from the other sports and may be willing to move. Geographically, it would be a huge mess, but a trip from connecticut to Hawaii in November doesn't sound all that bad.
The football only schools would help strengthen the BCS credentials of the conference, without adding to the large number of basketball only schools. However, there are still basketball schools that need to be replaced, especially if Connecticut also leaves.
This is where the Big-12 comes in. Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor. Invite them now. If Oklahoma jumps ship, have the press conference within the hour. Or better yet, have them join before. That way the Big East is on the offensive and can have more latitude with other schools.
In basketball, the big east is already the first "superconference." Will it stay so in football?
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Big-12
College sports currently has a 12 team "Big-10" conference and a 10 team "Big-12" conference. You would think that by college people would at least learn how to count.
But that is just the beginning. Texas A&M is on its way out - or so it thinks. However, Baylor is holding things up by threatening to sue. These are the same schools that recently complained that A&M had "broken its word" by attempting to leave the conference.
They are also the same for schools whose leaders voted unanimously that the Big-12 would not use legal methods to prevent A&M from leaving. Uh huh. Complain when they try to leave, but then use dishonest doublespeak to get them to stay. Great.
Oklahoma is rumored to be on its way out also. And who would blame them? Its as if a guy couldn't stand a girl breaking up with him and tried to sue her to stay. Sure this might allow her to stay for a bit longer, but it does not bode well for the relationship.
BYU would be wise to stay clear of this sinking ship.
However, this could be the one chance to join an automatically qualifying BCS conference.
What do they do?
Perhaps they simply broker a scheduling agreement similar to what they have with the WAC. BYU plays a number of Big-12 teams to fill in the gaps in the schedule. Or they even join as a football-only member (and somehow rearrange some of their scheduled games.)
But a full member? The WCC is much more stable, and lets them stay the high ground, without creating ill-will with the WCC.
SMU and Houston? They have less to lose. A jump to the big boy conference would be nice. Should it collapse, the WAC would be more than willing to welcoming them back. Conference-USA could even swallow its pride to get some of its star teams back.
Oklahoma? They've been talking with the Pac-12, but I'm sure they'd love to be in the Big-10. The could resume the Nebraska rivalry, and should fit nicely in the geographic footprint. The SEC or Pac-12 could also be options. And the Big-12? Well, sure. But why?
Perhaps Baylor can pull this off. After all, they managed to weasel in to the Big-12 in the first place. However, if things do implode, others may think twice about inviting the school that just cannot take no for an answer.
Oh what a mess. At least there is some good football.
But that is just the beginning. Texas A&M is on its way out - or so it thinks. However, Baylor is holding things up by threatening to sue. These are the same schools that recently complained that A&M had "broken its word" by attempting to leave the conference.
They are also the same for schools whose leaders voted unanimously that the Big-12 would not use legal methods to prevent A&M from leaving. Uh huh. Complain when they try to leave, but then use dishonest doublespeak to get them to stay. Great.
Oklahoma is rumored to be on its way out also. And who would blame them? Its as if a guy couldn't stand a girl breaking up with him and tried to sue her to stay. Sure this might allow her to stay for a bit longer, but it does not bode well for the relationship.
BYU would be wise to stay clear of this sinking ship.
However, this could be the one chance to join an automatically qualifying BCS conference.
What do they do?
Perhaps they simply broker a scheduling agreement similar to what they have with the WAC. BYU plays a number of Big-12 teams to fill in the gaps in the schedule. Or they even join as a football-only member (and somehow rearrange some of their scheduled games.)
But a full member? The WCC is much more stable, and lets them stay the high ground, without creating ill-will with the WCC.
SMU and Houston? They have less to lose. A jump to the big boy conference would be nice. Should it collapse, the WAC would be more than willing to welcoming them back. Conference-USA could even swallow its pride to get some of its star teams back.
Oklahoma? They've been talking with the Pac-12, but I'm sure they'd love to be in the Big-10. The could resume the Nebraska rivalry, and should fit nicely in the geographic footprint. The SEC or Pac-12 could also be options. And the Big-12? Well, sure. But why?
Perhaps Baylor can pull this off. After all, they managed to weasel in to the Big-12 in the first place. However, if things do implode, others may think twice about inviting the school that just cannot take no for an answer.
Oh what a mess. At least there is some good football.
Sunday, September 04, 2011
Texas to WAC
The WAC has been moving from its mountain west roots to the Southwest and Texas. With one school in Louisiana and three future Texas members, it could make an ideal geographic base for the longhorns. The presence of other Texas state schools would also help mute political opposition.
But the WAC?
That was the sentiment before BYU nearly sealed the deal to move there last year.
As the big fish (great white shark) in the small pond, Texas could set its own rules.
The longhorn network stays.
Football? Probably independent with scheduling agreements with WAC schools to fill those hard late season games.
Olympic sports? You can bike from Austin to San Marcos or San Antonio. Competition level could take a dive, but that could be dealt with. Perhaps a few others like Kansas could be recruited to shore up basketball.
Why not?
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Where does the Big-12 go?
Texas A&M is now all but out of the Big-12. Their likely destination, the SEC will potentially be poaching another school from the Big-12. This could leave the conference as an 8 team conference.
Well, it was once the Big-8 before taking on the Texas schools. Swapping Texas for Nebraska seems like a fair deal. Texas Tech for Colorado? Texas Tech for Missouri? Well, not slam dunks, but not a huge difference. Of course, that leaves the conference a small shadow of its former self.
Expansion?
Well, it doesn't look as good as it did last year. Had the Big-12 expanded to 12 after Colorado and Nebraska had bolted, they would have appeared to be a good destination for up and coming schools. BYU would have jumped in and brought a powerful program from the vacated mountain west. TCU would be a former Southwest Conference rival rejoining the fray.
Now, however, TCU is set to join the Big East and BYU independent football and the West Coast Conference. Would the Big-12 make any sense?
For BYU, the Big-12 presents immediate access to the BCS in football. However, a 9 team Big-12 could make scheduling easier for BYU. For mens basketball, it is a step up from the WCC. (However, the WCC is a respectable conference with regular at-large NCAA bids. BYU's chances at NCAA tourney runs may be better in the WCC.)
For other sports, the Big-12 would involve longer travel distances. The nearest Big-12 school (Texas Tech) is further away than the furthest WCC school. However, in most cases it would only mean switching from a 10 hour bus ride to a 16 hour one. Sure it is long, but from Provo, once you get beyond, Utah and Utah State, everything is far away. (UNLV and Wyoming are 'only' 5-6 hours away.)
So if you are BYU do you send your teams off on longer distance trips for the Big 12?
If you think it will work well for the long run, sure. But, with a conference that looks to be on the verge of collapse, why create ill will with the nascent relationship with the WCC?
By being the big dog with the WCC, BYU can set its terms (such as no Sunday play) and still get the coverage it wants. With the Big-12 it may be harder. BYU could also end up with what feels like a 6-7 game home schedule. With huge alumni populations in the bay area and southern california, BYU supporters could easily outnumber the local fans in the small WCC stadiums. Even in Portland, the BYU supporters could be a huge crowd. Gonzaga may be the only place where they have a truly hostile crowd.
In the Big-12 it could be much tougher. Perhaps a football-only invite to the Big-12 may make everyone happy, and keep BYU's options open in case of a conference collapse. (New relationships could only help.)
What about TCU?
They have just opted to join the Big East. The Big-12 could be an upgrade. However, in the Big East, they would be a Texas brand. In the Big-12, they would be easily overshadowed by the other Texas schools. TCU also is much more valuable to the Big East than to the Big12. However, the Big-12 would fit much better geographically with the TCU.
Would the Big-12 invite TCU? If they are desperate. But, if they are desperate, would TCU want to join? Considering the Big-East may be as unstable as the Big-12, that is a big possibility.
Houston? Rice? SMU? All conference USA desperation moves. These former SWC teams would jump at the chance. But, would it do much for the Big-12?
Boise State? Geographic outlier. They would love the respect. It could help in football, but would show desperation.
Big East schools? Arkansas? Well, now it is real desperation.
The big-12 may just survive, but how is anybody's guess.
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
College Football Conference Rankings
Conference Rankings using "similar team" methodology:
1. Big 10
2. WAC
3. Mountain West
4. Pac 10
5. ACC
6. Big East
7. SEC
8. big 12
9. Conference USA
9. MAC
11. Sun Belt
Rankings are computed by comparing the results of teams against "similar teams" from other conferences. Games against independent FBS are not included, while only loses to FCS teams are included. A good win is a victory over a team with an equal or better record in conference play. A bad loss is a loss to a team with an equal or worse record in conference play. Loses to FCS teams also count as bad loses. (Of course, comparing this seasons records would be better, but we don't know them yet.)
This helps to exclude "body bag" games where a conference champion blows out the cellar-dweller from another conference. A game such as Alabama's victory over San Jose State really tells us nothing about the quality of the two conferences. After all, the WAC teams had no trouble disposing of San Jose State, while Alabama had no trouble disposing with the rest of the SEC.
The games that are included are ones such as Michigan State's victory over Middle Tennessee. Michigan State finished in the middle of the Big-10, while MTSU was at the top of the Sun Belt. This is a better indicator of the overall strength of one conference versus others.
The MAC, Sun Belt and Conference-USA are clearly the "lower conferences". None have quality wins over non-conference foes, while many have ugly loses to teams from other conferences with worse records.
The Big East is slightly above these, with Syracuse's victory over a similar Akron team from the MAC.
The ACC does not have any directly comparable games - mainly due to a schedule full of FCS games. However, they did lose the two games to teams within a game of their teams. Similarly, the Pac-10 didn't win or lose any games against similarly ranked teams. The closest was the loss to by UCLA to Kansas State.
The Big 12 and SEC have some wins over the "lower 3" conferences. However, they both have ugly loses to FCS teams.
The only unblemished conferences are the Big-10, WAC and Mountain West. All three have quality victories over Big East teams. The Big-10 also has sunbelt and MAC victories.
Big-12
Bad Loss: FCS: Kansas lost to FCS North Dakota State
Good Wins: CUSA: Texas Tech (5-3 in conference last year) over SMU (6-2 in conference)
MAC: Iowa State (3-5) over Northern Illinois (5-3)
SEC
Bad Loss: FCS: Mississippi lost to FCS Jacksonville State
Best wins: Sun Belt: Georgia over Louisiana Lafayette (both had 4-4 conference records)
Sun Belt: Auburn over Arkansas State (both had 3-5 conference records)
CUSA: South Carolina (3-5) over Southern Miss (5-3)
Big East:
Bad Losses: WAC: Cincinnati (7-0) to Fresno (6-2)
MWC: Pittsburgh (5-2) to Utah (6-2)
B10: Michigan over Connectiut
Best Wins: MAC: Syracuse (1-6) over Akron (2-6)
Big 10:
Best Wins:
Sun Belt: Minnesota (3-5) over Middle Tennessee (7-1)
MAC: Michigan State (4-4) over Western Michigan (4-4)
Big East: Michigan (3-5) over Connecticut (3-4)
No bad loses
Pac 10:
No unexpected or comparable wins or losses (Kansas St over UCLA is closest)
ACC:
No unexpected or comparable wins or losses (LSU over North Carolina and Boise over Virginia Tech are the closest)
Mountain West
Wins: Big East: Utah (6-2) over Pittsburgh (5-2)
loses: none
WAC:
wins: Big East: Fresno State (6-2) over Cincinnati (7-0)
loses: none
Sun Belt:
Bad Loses: B10: Middle Tennessee (7-1) to Minnesota (3-5)
SEC: Louisiana Lafayette (4-4) to Georgia (4-4)
SEC: Arkansas State (3-5) to Auburn (3-5)
Good Wins : none
Conference USA:
Bad Loses: SEC: Southern Miss (5-3) to South Carolina (3-5)
B12: SMU (6-2) to Texas Tech (5-3)
Mid American
Bad Loses: B12: Northern Illinois (5-3) to Iowa State (3-5)
BE: Akron (2-6) to Syracuse (1-6)
1. Big 10
2. WAC
3. Mountain West
4. Pac 10
5. ACC
6. Big East
7. SEC
8. big 12
9. Conference USA
9. MAC
11. Sun Belt
Rankings are computed by comparing the results of teams against "similar teams" from other conferences. Games against independent FBS are not included, while only loses to FCS teams are included. A good win is a victory over a team with an equal or better record in conference play. A bad loss is a loss to a team with an equal or worse record in conference play. Loses to FCS teams also count as bad loses. (Of course, comparing this seasons records would be better, but we don't know them yet.)
This helps to exclude "body bag" games where a conference champion blows out the cellar-dweller from another conference. A game such as Alabama's victory over San Jose State really tells us nothing about the quality of the two conferences. After all, the WAC teams had no trouble disposing of San Jose State, while Alabama had no trouble disposing with the rest of the SEC.
The games that are included are ones such as Michigan State's victory over Middle Tennessee. Michigan State finished in the middle of the Big-10, while MTSU was at the top of the Sun Belt. This is a better indicator of the overall strength of one conference versus others.
The MAC, Sun Belt and Conference-USA are clearly the "lower conferences". None have quality wins over non-conference foes, while many have ugly loses to teams from other conferences with worse records.
The Big East is slightly above these, with Syracuse's victory over a similar Akron team from the MAC.
The ACC does not have any directly comparable games - mainly due to a schedule full of FCS games. However, they did lose the two games to teams within a game of their teams. Similarly, the Pac-10 didn't win or lose any games against similarly ranked teams. The closest was the loss to by UCLA to Kansas State.
The Big 12 and SEC have some wins over the "lower 3" conferences. However, they both have ugly loses to FCS teams.
The only unblemished conferences are the Big-10, WAC and Mountain West. All three have quality victories over Big East teams. The Big-10 also has sunbelt and MAC victories.
Big-12
Bad Loss: FCS: Kansas lost to FCS North Dakota State
Good Wins: CUSA: Texas Tech (5-3 in conference last year) over SMU (6-2 in conference)
MAC: Iowa State (3-5) over Northern Illinois (5-3)
SEC
Bad Loss: FCS: Mississippi lost to FCS Jacksonville State
Best wins: Sun Belt: Georgia over Louisiana Lafayette (both had 4-4 conference records)
Sun Belt: Auburn over Arkansas State (both had 3-5 conference records)
CUSA: South Carolina (3-5) over Southern Miss (5-3)
Big East:
Bad Losses: WAC: Cincinnati (7-0) to Fresno (6-2)
MWC: Pittsburgh (5-2) to Utah (6-2)
B10: Michigan over Connectiut
Best Wins: MAC: Syracuse (1-6) over Akron (2-6)
Big 10:
Best Wins:
Sun Belt: Minnesota (3-5) over Middle Tennessee (7-1)
MAC: Michigan State (4-4) over Western Michigan (4-4)
Big East: Michigan (3-5) over Connecticut (3-4)
No bad loses
Pac 10:
No unexpected or comparable wins or losses (Kansas St over UCLA is closest)
ACC:
No unexpected or comparable wins or losses (LSU over North Carolina and Boise over Virginia Tech are the closest)
Mountain West
Wins: Big East: Utah (6-2) over Pittsburgh (5-2)
loses: none
WAC:
wins: Big East: Fresno State (6-2) over Cincinnati (7-0)
loses: none
Sun Belt:
Bad Loses: B10: Middle Tennessee (7-1) to Minnesota (3-5)
SEC: Louisiana Lafayette (4-4) to Georgia (4-4)
SEC: Arkansas State (3-5) to Auburn (3-5)
Good Wins : none
Conference USA:
Bad Loses: SEC: Southern Miss (5-3) to South Carolina (3-5)
B12: SMU (6-2) to Texas Tech (5-3)
Mid American
Bad Loses: B12: Northern Illinois (5-3) to Iowa State (3-5)
BE: Akron (2-6) to Syracuse (1-6)
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Conference Expansion
College football conferences will have a different look in 2011:
Big 12 : 11 teams (minus Nebraska)
Big 10 : 12 teams (plus Nebraska)
Pac 10 : 11 teams (plus Utah)
WAC : 6 teams (minus Boise, Nevada, Fresno)
MWC : 11 teams (minus Utah, plus Boise, Nevada, Fresno)
There is still some flux in this. BYU is mulling going independent. Colorado may still find a way to get out of the Big 12 a year earlier. Nevada and Fresno may end back in the WAC for a year. Hawaii, Utah State and Louisiana Tech could also leave the WAC.
However, as it stands now, the one previous 11 team conference now has 12 teams and the ability to stage a championship. Three additional conferences are one team short of the number, while one conference teeters on the brink of extinction.
As the dust is settling, the Big 10 seems to be better off, while the entire college football landscape west of the Mississippi is in shamples.
Perhaps the biggest shame is poaching going on in the Mountain West and WAC. College football could really use another western BCS conference. The Mountain West was poised to be the conference, especially with the additional of Boise State. However, with the defection of Utah and possibly of BYU those hopes are looking weaker. The Mountain West picked up a couple of ok WAC teams, but now has a large conference to deal with. Perhaps the best option now would be to simply start over. Grab the best teams from the Mountain West and WAC to make a quality conference. (Wait, wasn't this supposed to be what the Mountain West was all about?)
Who would you drop? UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State are horrid in football, yet all made the NCAA basketball tournament. Wyoming is in a small market, but they did make a bowl last season. Colorado State is in one, of the largest markets in a conference. However, they don't have much a hold on that market (which they also somewhat share with Air Force.) They could be dropped, leaving only teams that made a bowl or the NCAA tourney. With Boise, Nevada and Fresno, you'd have a somewhat respectable 10 team conference, but one still with some football weakness.
The Big 12 and Pac 10 pose some additional issues. The Pac-10 has already assigned Utah a "probationary" membership, so they can probably limit the amount of money doled out to the new mouth until the championship game is going. In the Big-12, Colorado will be ponying out a good amount of change to leave, so its not like they will be hurting.
Will the Big-12 go for expansion? BYU could be a logical addition. They could help bring in revenue and easily compete in the Big-12 north. That gives another season to look for another team. (unless Missouri decides to leave.) A second team is more of a challenge. Air Force could provide a travel partner for BYU and restore the Colorado toe-hold. Going in to Texas is another option, though that could create geographical (and Texas politcal) issues. Houston and TCU both have respectable programs. Though it would be odd to have Houston competing in the North.
Another option would be to take two Texas schools and make an entirely Texas south division, while bumping the Oklahoma schools to the north.
Perhaps even more overzealous would be a Southwest Conference revival. Add SMU, TCU, Houston and Rice [uh, for academics] to the south division, bump the Oklahoma schools up north and add BYU and Air Force. TCU and Texas would be the powers in the south, with Houston, Tech and A&M nipping at their heals. In the north, Oklahoma, BYU and Oklahoma State would probably dominate, though Air Force and Missouri should be respectable.
Conference USA can grab New Mexico, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech to complete their 12.
These leaves 11 western teams from the WAC/MWC. Perhaps a IAA moveup can be added to get a championship game going. (Or Hawaii may go it solo.)
Boise, Fresno, Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, San Jose State, Utah State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming.
And then in the next season, Texas A&M will bolt to the SEC and Texas will head to the Pac-10, and everything will start all over again.
Perhaps we will see BYU stay in the Mountain West and the BCS bid come through.
Maybe the WAC will find a way to survive.
Where will Utah State and Hawaii end up?
Will the Pac-10 and big-10 continue expanding?
What about the Big east?
There is also the matter of being an incumbent BCS conference. You get more money. You have an easier time scheduling. You find it easier to stay BCS.
Perhaps we should just create 'football-only' conferences. Teams that can fill stadiums and win games go in the top conferences. Other teams go in lower conferences and move up if they are successful.
Big 12 : 11 teams (minus Nebraska)
Big 10 : 12 teams (plus Nebraska)
Pac 10 : 11 teams (plus Utah)
WAC : 6 teams (minus Boise, Nevada, Fresno)
MWC : 11 teams (minus Utah, plus Boise, Nevada, Fresno)
There is still some flux in this. BYU is mulling going independent. Colorado may still find a way to get out of the Big 12 a year earlier. Nevada and Fresno may end back in the WAC for a year. Hawaii, Utah State and Louisiana Tech could also leave the WAC.
However, as it stands now, the one previous 11 team conference now has 12 teams and the ability to stage a championship. Three additional conferences are one team short of the number, while one conference teeters on the brink of extinction.
As the dust is settling, the Big 10 seems to be better off, while the entire college football landscape west of the Mississippi is in shamples.
Perhaps the biggest shame is poaching going on in the Mountain West and WAC. College football could really use another western BCS conference. The Mountain West was poised to be the conference, especially with the additional of Boise State. However, with the defection of Utah and possibly of BYU those hopes are looking weaker. The Mountain West picked up a couple of ok WAC teams, but now has a large conference to deal with. Perhaps the best option now would be to simply start over. Grab the best teams from the Mountain West and WAC to make a quality conference. (Wait, wasn't this supposed to be what the Mountain West was all about?)
Who would you drop? UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State are horrid in football, yet all made the NCAA basketball tournament. Wyoming is in a small market, but they did make a bowl last season. Colorado State is in one, of the largest markets in a conference. However, they don't have much a hold on that market (which they also somewhat share with Air Force.) They could be dropped, leaving only teams that made a bowl or the NCAA tourney. With Boise, Nevada and Fresno, you'd have a somewhat respectable 10 team conference, but one still with some football weakness.
The Big 12 and Pac 10 pose some additional issues. The Pac-10 has already assigned Utah a "probationary" membership, so they can probably limit the amount of money doled out to the new mouth until the championship game is going. In the Big-12, Colorado will be ponying out a good amount of change to leave, so its not like they will be hurting.
Will the Big-12 go for expansion? BYU could be a logical addition. They could help bring in revenue and easily compete in the Big-12 north. That gives another season to look for another team. (unless Missouri decides to leave.) A second team is more of a challenge. Air Force could provide a travel partner for BYU and restore the Colorado toe-hold. Going in to Texas is another option, though that could create geographical (and Texas politcal) issues. Houston and TCU both have respectable programs. Though it would be odd to have Houston competing in the North.
Another option would be to take two Texas schools and make an entirely Texas south division, while bumping the Oklahoma schools to the north.
Perhaps even more overzealous would be a Southwest Conference revival. Add SMU, TCU, Houston and Rice [uh, for academics] to the south division, bump the Oklahoma schools up north and add BYU and Air Force. TCU and Texas would be the powers in the south, with Houston, Tech and A&M nipping at their heals. In the north, Oklahoma, BYU and Oklahoma State would probably dominate, though Air Force and Missouri should be respectable.
Conference USA can grab New Mexico, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech to complete their 12.
These leaves 11 western teams from the WAC/MWC. Perhaps a IAA moveup can be added to get a championship game going. (Or Hawaii may go it solo.)
Boise, Fresno, Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, San Jose State, Utah State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming.
And then in the next season, Texas A&M will bolt to the SEC and Texas will head to the Pac-10, and everything will start all over again.
Perhaps we will see BYU stay in the Mountain West and the BCS bid come through.
Maybe the WAC will find a way to survive.
Where will Utah State and Hawaii end up?
Will the Pac-10 and big-10 continue expanding?
What about the Big east?
There is also the matter of being an incumbent BCS conference. You get more money. You have an easier time scheduling. You find it easier to stay BCS.
Perhaps we should just create 'football-only' conferences. Teams that can fill stadiums and win games go in the top conferences. Other teams go in lower conferences and move up if they are successful.
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Can the Big 12 be saved?
Nebraska is rumored to be ready to bolt to the Big 10. Colorado is rumored to be ready to bolt to the Pac-10. (Hmmm. Big-12 with 10 schools and Big-10 with 12 schools. Perhaps they can engineer a name swap.) The remainder of the Big-12 south (minus Baylor) has a rumored invite to the Pac-10.
Can the Big-12 save itself?
One option would be to just continue the conference with 10 teams. This would create some issues with staging a Big-12 championship game in Dallas in 2013, though that could probably be worked out. The conference would lose one national power in Nebraska and one potentially large media market in Denver. However, most of the strength would be intact. They may lose the ability to fill one of the lower tier bowls. However, they would likely be able to continue placing two teams in the BCS bowls. The loss of revenue from the championship game would hurt. However, the breakup fees and the fewer teams could leave each team about even financially for the short term.
They could also go aggressive. Invite BYU and Air Force. Both fit nicely in north division and have strong local followings as well as national followings. (If Colorado goes to the Pac-10 without the Big-12 south, it will likely go with Utah.) But why stop there when they can go to the first mega conference. TCU and Houston or New Mexico could be added to the south division. Boise State and Colorado State (or Wyoming) be picks for the north division. (Boise would give the most immediate credibility in football, though it is more of a geographic outlier.)
The new Big-16 could probably argue that the north division deserves the automatic bid that the Mountain West was on the cusp of receiving. Thus, the 2 BCS bids would be locked up. The conference would add to its stranglehold on the Texas market. Utah would be a significant market addition. Colorado would remain fairly strong. Idaho, Wyoming or New Mexico would add somewhat smaller markets.
On the football field, the north would probably remain the weaker part of the conference. However, it will likely be highly competitive, with plenty quality programs.
A Big-12 expansion would leave the mountain west out of existence. San Diego State, UNLV and any other remainders could join the WAC. This is probably nearer to their current level of competition as well as being closer to geographic rivals.
Could the Big 12 pull it off and survive? It seems unlikely now, but we will see how it all fleshes out.
Can the Big-12 save itself?
One option would be to just continue the conference with 10 teams. This would create some issues with staging a Big-12 championship game in Dallas in 2013, though that could probably be worked out. The conference would lose one national power in Nebraska and one potentially large media market in Denver. However, most of the strength would be intact. They may lose the ability to fill one of the lower tier bowls. However, they would likely be able to continue placing two teams in the BCS bowls. The loss of revenue from the championship game would hurt. However, the breakup fees and the fewer teams could leave each team about even financially for the short term.
They could also go aggressive. Invite BYU and Air Force. Both fit nicely in north division and have strong local followings as well as national followings. (If Colorado goes to the Pac-10 without the Big-12 south, it will likely go with Utah.) But why stop there when they can go to the first mega conference. TCU and Houston or New Mexico could be added to the south division. Boise State and Colorado State (or Wyoming) be picks for the north division. (Boise would give the most immediate credibility in football, though it is more of a geographic outlier.)
The new Big-16 could probably argue that the north division deserves the automatic bid that the Mountain West was on the cusp of receiving. Thus, the 2 BCS bids would be locked up. The conference would add to its stranglehold on the Texas market. Utah would be a significant market addition. Colorado would remain fairly strong. Idaho, Wyoming or New Mexico would add somewhat smaller markets.
On the football field, the north would probably remain the weaker part of the conference. However, it will likely be highly competitive, with plenty quality programs.
A Big-12 expansion would leave the mountain west out of existence. San Diego State, UNLV and any other remainders could join the WAC. This is probably nearer to their current level of competition as well as being closer to geographic rivals.
Could the Big 12 pull it off and survive? It seems unlikely now, but we will see how it all fleshes out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)