With all the shuffling around of conferences, a clear hierarchy is being established among conferences:
1) First Tier: Schools come to these conferences to stay:
Big-10 [Has taken new members from Big-12, ACC, Big East]
Pac-12 [Has taken new members from Mountain West and Big-12]
SEC [Has taken new members from Big-12]
2) Second Tier: Conferences have some issues. Some teams may want to leave, but teams from lower tier would love to join.
Big-12 [Has taken new members from Big-12 and Big East/Mountain West (TCU had planned to move to Big East, but was still in MWC when moved)
ACC [Almost exclusively raids Big East]
3) Big East
Has historically been the transfer station from Conference USA to ACC. Recently has sent some teams to Big-12 and Big-10 as well. Now is getting desperate and taking teams from just about all the conferences below.
4) Mountain West and Conference USA
Picks the cream of the MAC and Sun Belt crop. (MWC has historically raided the WAC, but there is not anything left to raid.)
5) MAC and Sun Belt
New teams to the FBS ranks are likely to land here
6) WAC
Dead to the football world now
On field performance somewhat mirrors the hierarchy, though with a few changes.
1) SEC: Unless there is a very compelling reason, they'll play in the championship
2) Big-10, Pac-12, Big-12: A team from here would be a credible champion
3) ACC: If there is no one better above, they'll make it
4) Big East: They have a chance if there are no better options
5) Mountain West: If everyone else is having a down year, and a team here has fewer losses than everyone else, there is a chance they can go.
6) Conference USA: Same with MWC, but slightly lower
7) MAC and Sun Belt. Good luck. Perhaps if everyone else has a couple loses and a team from here goes undefeated with a victory over Alabama, there may be a chance.
Showing posts with label acc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label acc. Show all posts
Sunday, December 02, 2012
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Conference Realignment
College football has now aligned itself to five major conferences of 64 teams:
SEC 14
PAC-12 12
Big-10 14
Big-12 10
ACC 14
---------
64
On the football field, the SEC is the clear champion, in terms of on-field performance and attendance. The ACC is the laggard of the Big-5. (Though it is pretty good at basketball.) Looking at football attendance as a barometer for school programs, there is a clear separation of the "big-5" conferences and the "little-5".
The top 50 major teams are all independents or in major conferences. The bottom 35 teams are all in "minor" conferences. The Big-East was always a borderline AQ conference in the BCS. With all the poaching that has been going on, it is now very clearly in the "lower tier".
Are there many big-5 conference teams that shouldn't be there? There are not many teams that are in big conferences, yet are not in the top 64 in attendance. Duke, Northwestern and Vanderbilt are all the "academic" powers in their conferences and are located in major media markets. Duke also has a pretty impressive basketball record TCU's attendance numbers are an aberration due to stadium construction. The most recent attendance would put them closer to the 50s. (They are also sitting in the #5 media market.)
This leaves Washington State, Wake Forest, Baylor and Syracuse as the outliers. Baylor and Syracuse are "right on the border" of being top 64. Baylor also has Texas politics to thank for its position in the Big-12. They both have pretty good basketball programs. This gets us down to just Wake Forest and Washington State as "questionable". Both have had a pretty ugly recent history in football. However, they both have been long term members of their conferences and have well established rivalries.
What changes would you make? Notre Dame and BYU are the two big outliers in the "have nots". Notre Dame already has a non-football membership with the ACC and an in to the "big bowls". (They also have a current "BCS automatic inclusion" clause, but they didn't need to use it due to being first in the standings.) Notre Dame's attendance also exceeds that of all ACC schools. BYU is trickier. The Pac-12 would be a logical place, geographically and attendance-wise, but there are some politics involved. A Big-12 partnership may also make sense.
Beyond the independents, there are no "slam-dunk" options. South Florida is #52. However, it tends to draw a local Tampa audience. Florida State (ACC) and Florida (SEC) both draw from the entire state. Low-caliber academics would exclude the Big-10 or Pac-12. It could be an option if the Big-12 decided to make a run for Florida. However, the quality of the overall sports program lags behind other schools.
East Carolina is in a somewhat similar situation. Geographically, they would fit in the ACC. However, the conference is already loaded with North Carolina schools. East Carolina would lag behind many in academics and non-football sports. SEC lacks schools in North Carolina. However, East Carolina could probably not compete well with the SEC schools. Another Big-12 option?
Connecticut seems like an ideal expansion target. They are in an untapped market (and they could probably claim part of the New York City market also.) Basketball is excellent and football has spurts of quality. Academics are also decent (but lack of AAU membership would turn off the Big-10) AAC would be a logical place to go. However, you get the impression that the AAC is waiting for somebody to get poached before grabbing UConn.
At #61, Central Florida has the same problems as South Florida. At least Orlando doesn't have a pro football team. Hawaii at #63 is in Hawaii. Its a nice vacation, but it is a long way out there. Academics would also be an issue. After that you get Air Force, Fresno State, Navy, UTEP and Boise. Perhaps the national audience of the service academies would appeal to a conference. (The ACC could look at Navy to replace the Maryland market.) Fresno is an academic lightweight in California's central valley. The Pac-12 wouldn't dare go near, but maybe the Big-12 trying to break in to California? (Though of late, #76 San Diego State is out-drawing.) UTEP is in El Paso, which is pretty much the middle of nowhere. Boise has had a lot of football success and is in a growing city.
"Non-Big" Outliers
Notre Dame - 15th in Attendance
BYU - 27th in Attendance
South Florida - 52
East Carolina - 55
UConn - 60
Central Florida - 61
Hawaii - 63
Air Force - 65
Fresno State - 67
Navy - 70
UTEP - 71
Boise - 72
Cinncinnati - 74
Army - 75
San Diego State - 76
Southern Miss - 78
Memphis - 80
Houston - 89
Marshall - 82
New Mexico - 83
"Big Conference" Outliers
Duke - 84
Washington State - 79
Northwestern - 77
Wake Forest - 73
TCU - 69
Vanderbilt - 68
Baylor - 66
Syracuse - 64
Indiana - 62
source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArFVbThT6eb5dHNFUmEyc19DTDJEc25BcVRwOWQzWWc#gid=0 or https://twitter.com/ArtDirectorBYU/status/197162017482743809
SEC 14
PAC-12 12
Big-10 14
Big-12 10
ACC 14
---------
64
On the football field, the SEC is the clear champion, in terms of on-field performance and attendance. The ACC is the laggard of the Big-5. (Though it is pretty good at basketball.) Looking at football attendance as a barometer for school programs, there is a clear separation of the "big-5" conferences and the "little-5".
The top 50 major teams are all independents or in major conferences. The bottom 35 teams are all in "minor" conferences. The Big-East was always a borderline AQ conference in the BCS. With all the poaching that has been going on, it is now very clearly in the "lower tier".
Are there many big-5 conference teams that shouldn't be there? There are not many teams that are in big conferences, yet are not in the top 64 in attendance. Duke, Northwestern and Vanderbilt are all the "academic" powers in their conferences and are located in major media markets. Duke also has a pretty impressive basketball record TCU's attendance numbers are an aberration due to stadium construction. The most recent attendance would put them closer to the 50s. (They are also sitting in the #5 media market.)
This leaves Washington State, Wake Forest, Baylor and Syracuse as the outliers. Baylor and Syracuse are "right on the border" of being top 64. Baylor also has Texas politics to thank for its position in the Big-12. They both have pretty good basketball programs. This gets us down to just Wake Forest and Washington State as "questionable". Both have had a pretty ugly recent history in football. However, they both have been long term members of their conferences and have well established rivalries.
What changes would you make? Notre Dame and BYU are the two big outliers in the "have nots". Notre Dame already has a non-football membership with the ACC and an in to the "big bowls". (They also have a current "BCS automatic inclusion" clause, but they didn't need to use it due to being first in the standings.) Notre Dame's attendance also exceeds that of all ACC schools. BYU is trickier. The Pac-12 would be a logical place, geographically and attendance-wise, but there are some politics involved. A Big-12 partnership may also make sense.
Beyond the independents, there are no "slam-dunk" options. South Florida is #52. However, it tends to draw a local Tampa audience. Florida State (ACC) and Florida (SEC) both draw from the entire state. Low-caliber academics would exclude the Big-10 or Pac-12. It could be an option if the Big-12 decided to make a run for Florida. However, the quality of the overall sports program lags behind other schools.
East Carolina is in a somewhat similar situation. Geographically, they would fit in the ACC. However, the conference is already loaded with North Carolina schools. East Carolina would lag behind many in academics and non-football sports. SEC lacks schools in North Carolina. However, East Carolina could probably not compete well with the SEC schools. Another Big-12 option?
Connecticut seems like an ideal expansion target. They are in an untapped market (and they could probably claim part of the New York City market also.) Basketball is excellent and football has spurts of quality. Academics are also decent (but lack of AAU membership would turn off the Big-10) AAC would be a logical place to go. However, you get the impression that the AAC is waiting for somebody to get poached before grabbing UConn.
At #61, Central Florida has the same problems as South Florida. At least Orlando doesn't have a pro football team. Hawaii at #63 is in Hawaii. Its a nice vacation, but it is a long way out there. Academics would also be an issue. After that you get Air Force, Fresno State, Navy, UTEP and Boise. Perhaps the national audience of the service academies would appeal to a conference. (The ACC could look at Navy to replace the Maryland market.) Fresno is an academic lightweight in California's central valley. The Pac-12 wouldn't dare go near, but maybe the Big-12 trying to break in to California? (Though of late, #76 San Diego State is out-drawing.) UTEP is in El Paso, which is pretty much the middle of nowhere. Boise has had a lot of football success and is in a growing city.
"Non-Big" Outliers
Notre Dame - 15th in Attendance
BYU - 27th in Attendance
South Florida - 52
East Carolina - 55
UConn - 60
Central Florida - 61
Hawaii - 63
Air Force - 65
Fresno State - 67
Navy - 70
UTEP - 71
Boise - 72
Cinncinnati - 74
Army - 75
San Diego State - 76
Southern Miss - 78
Memphis - 80
Houston - 89
Marshall - 82
New Mexico - 83
"Big Conference" Outliers
Duke - 84
Washington State - 79
Northwestern - 77
Wake Forest - 73
TCU - 69
Vanderbilt - 68
Baylor - 66
Syracuse - 64
Indiana - 62
source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArFVbThT6eb5dHNFUmEyc19DTDJEc25BcVRwOWQzWWc#gid=0 or https://twitter.com/ArtDirectorBYU/status/197162017482743809
Monday, September 19, 2011
Can the Big East Be Saved?
The founder of the Big East conference recently died. And at the same time, his conference was dealt a critical blow. With Pitt and Syracuse on their way out to the ACC can the Big East conference be saved? Would anybody want to latch on now in its fallen state?
The conference does still have the reigning men's basketball champ. Even with the losses of two power basketball programs, it remains one of the marquee basketball conferences.
However, football is hanging by life support. With TCU coming on board, they would be left with just 7 football teams. West Virginia is the only one that has a significant long-term national reputation.
A number of schools, such as UCF, are eager to move up to the ranks of the "BCS" leagues. However, should the league implode, or lose its BCS auto-bid, things could be even worse for them. They may want to play it slow.
The first step would be to get some of the football independents on speed dial. Notre Dame would be the obvious coup. They have an interest in having a place to park their non-football sports. They may be willing to add football to help save the league. Or they may just decided to jump to the Big-10.
Navy is in the right geographical footprint, and could easily join as a football-only school. They have a large following and a record of recent success that would help with the BCS standings.
BYU is a new independent with recent football success and a national following. They are not close, but they are eager for the cachet that being in an auto-bid conference would give them. By joining in football only, they get the advantage without having to undo their recent paring of sports in the WCC. If things don't go well, they can go back to being independent.
Hawaii could be another alternative. Their football team is separate from the other sports and may be willing to move. Geographically, it would be a huge mess, but a trip from connecticut to Hawaii in November doesn't sound all that bad.
The football only schools would help strengthen the BCS credentials of the conference, without adding to the large number of basketball only schools. However, there are still basketball schools that need to be replaced, especially if Connecticut also leaves.
This is where the Big-12 comes in. Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor. Invite them now. If Oklahoma jumps ship, have the press conference within the hour. Or better yet, have them join before. That way the Big East is on the offensive and can have more latitude with other schools.
In basketball, the big east is already the first "superconference." Will it stay so in football?
The conference does still have the reigning men's basketball champ. Even with the losses of two power basketball programs, it remains one of the marquee basketball conferences.
However, football is hanging by life support. With TCU coming on board, they would be left with just 7 football teams. West Virginia is the only one that has a significant long-term national reputation.
A number of schools, such as UCF, are eager to move up to the ranks of the "BCS" leagues. However, should the league implode, or lose its BCS auto-bid, things could be even worse for them. They may want to play it slow.
The first step would be to get some of the football independents on speed dial. Notre Dame would be the obvious coup. They have an interest in having a place to park their non-football sports. They may be willing to add football to help save the league. Or they may just decided to jump to the Big-10.
Navy is in the right geographical footprint, and could easily join as a football-only school. They have a large following and a record of recent success that would help with the BCS standings.
BYU is a new independent with recent football success and a national following. They are not close, but they are eager for the cachet that being in an auto-bid conference would give them. By joining in football only, they get the advantage without having to undo their recent paring of sports in the WCC. If things don't go well, they can go back to being independent.
Hawaii could be another alternative. Their football team is separate from the other sports and may be willing to move. Geographically, it would be a huge mess, but a trip from connecticut to Hawaii in November doesn't sound all that bad.
The football only schools would help strengthen the BCS credentials of the conference, without adding to the large number of basketball only schools. However, there are still basketball schools that need to be replaced, especially if Connecticut also leaves.
This is where the Big-12 comes in. Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor. Invite them now. If Oklahoma jumps ship, have the press conference within the hour. Or better yet, have them join before. That way the Big East is on the offensive and can have more latitude with other schools.
In basketball, the big east is already the first "superconference." Will it stay so in football?
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Ranked Wolfpack?
Do either of the Wolfpack teams deserve a top-25 ranking this week? Both NC State and Nevada are 3-0 this week. Both have a victory over an FCS team, a midmajor and a BCS team.
For the FCS victory, NC State beat Western Carolina by 41 points, while Nevada beat Eastern Washington by 25. NC State's appeared to be the more impressive win. However, Eastern Washington is a top-25 FCS team, while Western Carolina lost its next game to a Division II team. We'll give the edge to Nevada.
For the midmajor victory, Nevada beat Colorado State by 45 points, while NC State beat UCF by 7. Colorado State has been downright awful and is the midst of a multi-season losing streak. UCF was a bowl team last year. Neither team has much more to go on this year. (Colorado State has a 3 touchdown loss to Colorado, while UCF has a touchdown win over an FCS team.) We'll give NC State a slight edge here for beating a better team, though we have to give Nevada style points for taking care of business.
For the BCS team, Nevada beat Cal by 21 , while NC State beat Cincinnati by 11. Cal came in ranked in the ocaches poll, while Cinci has been struggling all season. Nevada also looked convincing in its play, while NC State seemed to be trading fumbles with the Bearcats. Advantage Nevada.
Look for Nevada to show up in the lower section of the Top-25 (Cal's spot in the Coaches poll is up for grabs.) NC State should show up in "others receiving votes", with positioning depending more on what other teams do.
For the FCS victory, NC State beat Western Carolina by 41 points, while Nevada beat Eastern Washington by 25. NC State's appeared to be the more impressive win. However, Eastern Washington is a top-25 FCS team, while Western Carolina lost its next game to a Division II team. We'll give the edge to Nevada.
For the midmajor victory, Nevada beat Colorado State by 45 points, while NC State beat UCF by 7. Colorado State has been downright awful and is the midst of a multi-season losing streak. UCF was a bowl team last year. Neither team has much more to go on this year. (Colorado State has a 3 touchdown loss to Colorado, while UCF has a touchdown win over an FCS team.) We'll give NC State a slight edge here for beating a better team, though we have to give Nevada style points for taking care of business.
For the BCS team, Nevada beat Cal by 21 , while NC State beat Cincinnati by 11. Cal came in ranked in the ocaches poll, while Cinci has been struggling all season. Nevada also looked convincing in its play, while NC State seemed to be trading fumbles with the Bearcats. Advantage Nevada.
Look for Nevada to show up in the lower section of the Top-25 (Cal's spot in the Coaches poll is up for grabs.) NC State should show up in "others receiving votes", with positioning depending more on what other teams do.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
The sorry state of the ACC
Prior to the season, some were opining the ACC Coastal as the best in the country. Alas, that was before the season started.
So far the best the Coastal can claim is a 3-1 record vs lower division FCS schools. Against FBS schools?
Well:
0-1 vs WAC
0-1 vs Big-12
0-1 vs SEC
0-1 vs Big-10
0-1 vs ACC Atlantic
0-1 vs PAC-10
Only Virginia's loss to USC could be considered a "great mismatches" to the ACC teams. Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami all lost to teams within ten spots in the polls. You may be able to argue that Miami and VT faced higher ranked teams, while North Carolina had just seen a good junk of its team suspended.
However, even those excuses hold no water for the ugly loses this week. Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech were both top 15 teams that managed to lose games that were supposedly gimmes. VT lost to FCS James Madison, while GT lost to Big-12 doormat Kansas (who were coming off their loss to an FCS team.) At least Duke's loss to Wake Forest was a 'fair' match-up between two conference teams that finished last year with identical records.
Perhaps we can look at a moral victory - the teams have all played close in their loses - which is something that cannot be said for Atlantic Division's Florida State. (Utah State's performance in Norman last week looked positively brilliant compared to what Florida State did there.) However, that is the lone loss in the Atlantic. Alas, there are not many quality wins there, either. NC States win over UCF and Maryland's over Navy are the lone wins over FBS teams that finished last season with winning records. Boston College's slugfest with a mediocre Kent State does not exactly inspire confidence, nor does Clemson's disposal of North Texas, or Wake's narrow victory over Duke.
When the new rankings come out, look for Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech to totally fall out. They probably wont even show up in "others receiving votes?" - though James Madison might. Florida State should also be gone. (Oklahoma tumbled after beating Utah State. Now that they embarrassed Florida State look for them to be gone.) Miami might have a prayer in the lower reaches of the poll. Without any convincing wins, it is hard to see any of the Atlantic teams making it in the polls at all. It wouldn't be surprising to see the ACC shut out of the polls.
Now why does the conference get an automatic BCS bid? Must have something to do with the pull of the basketball teams.
So far the best the Coastal can claim is a 3-1 record vs lower division FCS schools. Against FBS schools?
Well:
0-1 vs WAC
0-1 vs Big-12
0-1 vs SEC
0-1 vs Big-10
0-1 vs ACC Atlantic
0-1 vs PAC-10
Only Virginia's loss to USC could be considered a "great mismatches" to the ACC teams. Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami all lost to teams within ten spots in the polls. You may be able to argue that Miami and VT faced higher ranked teams, while North Carolina had just seen a good junk of its team suspended.
However, even those excuses hold no water for the ugly loses this week. Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech were both top 15 teams that managed to lose games that were supposedly gimmes. VT lost to FCS James Madison, while GT lost to Big-12 doormat Kansas (who were coming off their loss to an FCS team.) At least Duke's loss to Wake Forest was a 'fair' match-up between two conference teams that finished last year with identical records.
Perhaps we can look at a moral victory - the teams have all played close in their loses - which is something that cannot be said for Atlantic Division's Florida State. (Utah State's performance in Norman last week looked positively brilliant compared to what Florida State did there.) However, that is the lone loss in the Atlantic. Alas, there are not many quality wins there, either. NC States win over UCF and Maryland's over Navy are the lone wins over FBS teams that finished last season with winning records. Boston College's slugfest with a mediocre Kent State does not exactly inspire confidence, nor does Clemson's disposal of North Texas, or Wake's narrow victory over Duke.
When the new rankings come out, look for Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech to totally fall out. They probably wont even show up in "others receiving votes?" - though James Madison might. Florida State should also be gone. (Oklahoma tumbled after beating Utah State. Now that they embarrassed Florida State look for them to be gone.) Miami might have a prayer in the lower reaches of the poll. Without any convincing wins, it is hard to see any of the Atlantic teams making it in the polls at all. It wouldn't be surprising to see the ACC shut out of the polls.
Now why does the conference get an automatic BCS bid? Must have something to do with the pull of the basketball teams.
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