Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Best Offer Wins: A Novel

Best Offer Wins: A Novel by Marisa Kashino

A couple in DC is trying to buy a house. Alas, they get outbid in all their offers. They want to have a family, but getting the house first is a priority. The book is told primarily from the perspective of the Asian wife. Then they hear from a friend that a house in Maryland is coming on the market. The woman decides to scope it out. She absolutely loves it. She even decides to sneak in the back yard for a look. She stays too long and almost gets caught by the owner. However, she manages to get out just in time, but does run into him. She decides she will try to get the house as a "pre-listing" transaction. She stalks the owners and discovers that they are a gay couple with an adopted Asian daughter. She  tries a yoga class that one attends.  They actually hit it off and end up getting invited to dinner. At dinner she pushes things too far about an offer and end up getting discovered and kicked out. That is still not enough. She hunts for dirt on the couple. She discovers that somebody had bad things to say about one of the men (a university professor who published a book.) She traced all the students in his program at the time to see if she could find who it was. (She had previously been a journalist, so had connections as well as desire to do it.) She travelled distances to find dirt to potentially use it against them. She found he plagiarized a student. However, the student realized that she was a fraud and didn't give her the evidence. She tried to use this against the men. However, they eventually called her bluff.

Then the novel takes a very macabre turn. She realizes that her husband had been having an affair. She kills the woman involved and takes her body to the basement of the house. She framed it as having been done by a friend of hers. (She had the friend tour the house and used the friend's car and dressed like the friend when committing the crime.) Then, right before the police were ready to catch the friend, she gave her various drugs to make it look like she committed suicide. It helped wrap everything up. It also left the house available to them as the only people willing to put in an offer. The book ends with the woman discovering another affair from her husband and makes us wonder what she will be doing.

The book is a fast moving case of desperation in a crazy housing market.

Thursday, April 11, 2024

Golden Gates: Fighting for Housing in America

Golden Gates: Fighting for Housing in America by Conor Dougherty

Housing has become too expensive. Zoning regulations make building difficult. Many people are living on the streets because there is no place they can afford to live. What should we do? Golden Gates focuses on attempts in San Francisco and California to improve the housing situation.

San Francisco is an extremely liberal city with some of the most expensive housing in the country. People want to move to the city for the many job opportunities. When this happened in the per-War age, cities such as Chicago and New York built up huge tracts fo dense housing. Alas, it is more challenging in San Francisco today. The different types of liberals often work against each other to prevent new housing. Preservationists want to keep the historic character of neighborhoods. They may mention fears of "gentrification" to stymie development. Housing advocates will sometimes fight against anything that is not 100% affordable housing. Environmentalists fear the environmental impacts of new housing. Those supporting new housing are typically the developers and unions that benefit from the act of construction. The voice of "future residents" are almost never heard.

Some people have stepped in to start to advocate for growth. Any development can be good. The difficulty of building housing makes developers concentrate on high end housing. Making development easier would allow for greater diversity in development. The high end of today is what will be the lower priced housing in the future. 

Rent control may benefit current renters, but it often has negative impacts on supply and future renters.

One issue is that today housing is viewed as an investment, not just a place to live. Thus people are more concerned with the impacts on property values. We have many subsidies for buyers, yet it is becoming increasingly difficult to buy.

California has gone through a few different phases of development. In the post-war era, the state focussed on building. Many cities and suburbs sprang up on vacant land with the state helping with the infrastructure (such as water projects.) Then things turned and zoning laws discouraged development. Now there is a shift to encourage more development in part by taking some control away form communities.

The book details stories of fights for housing legislation, as well as the advocacy for San Francisco development and the fight to support apartments in tony Lafayette. the stories combine to show a picture of what can be done to help with housing in the near future. However, the author is cautious to note that there have been many "solutions" that have not panned out. We will see what the future holds now.

Saturday, April 30, 2022

Finding old houses in Seattle


 Where are the old houses in Seattle?

First, what were the populations


How many people were living in Seattle?

4568
YearSeattleBallardKing County
1860188302
187011512120
188035336910
189042837163663989
1900806714568110053
1910237194284638
1920315312389273

The tricky part is understanding what the population represents. The Annexation map shows a steady increase in size of the city. The one below shows early annexations (up to 1938). A huge chunk of north Seattle (up to 130th) was annexed later. 

For the purpose of old houses, there were 80,671 people living in Seattle in 1900. However, the city limits then were much smaller than they are now. The US Census has populations of individual precincts in King County in 1890 and 1900. What are those precincts? A census site links some together. I'll just guess and say there were about 50,000 people living in the modern Seattle city limits in 1890.

To make things interesting, there was the Seattle Fire in 1889. This destroyed much of the central business district. It also led to a rapid increase in population as the city was rebuilt. I'll guess that a great deal of the pre-1889 buildings were destroyed. There was probably a lot of "get things done quickly" mentality for housing immediately after the fire. I doubt there would be much of that housing that would last. However, I would expect to find a few bits of 1890s housing still around. The areas that were later annexed would probably have some housing.

By 1900, Seattle had 80,671 residents. Ballard had 4.568 at the time. Add in other areas, and a population of 90,000 for the area of modern Seattle seems quite conservative.

Now what about finding the old buildings? The King County Assesor has data that includes the address and year of construction of property in Seattle. I grabbed the residential file. (This does miss out on a few older houses that have been converted to commercial.) It includes the entire county. To narrow down to Seattle, a little bit of grep magic by zip code:

cat EXTR_ResBldg.csv|grep -e '98177\|98133\|9810\|98112\|98115\|98116\|98117\|98118\|98119\|98121\|98122\|98125\|98126\|98133\|98134\|98136\|98144\|98154\|98164\|98174\|98195\|98199' >seattle100YearHouses.csv 

That may grab a few bits on the periphery where the zip code spans the city limits, but should be close enough for our purposes. I sorted by year built and then removed everything more than 100 years old.

Interestingly, there was nothing before 1900.

The breakdown by year:


Something seems a little suspicious there. There were more 1900 constructions than 1901 and 1902 combined. Were some houses backdated? Or is there some weird Y2K thing going on?

I loaded those into a Google map and:

Suspiciously, there were none in the downtown area. Perhaps I had a bad filter on the zip codes?

I tried pulling all of King County:


YearhousesChange vs. previous
1894 1
1900 2112
1901 708 -66%
1902 710 0%
1903 872 23%
1904 1261 45%
1905 1478 17%
1906 2232 51%
1907 1740 -22%
1908 2496 43%
1909 2301 -8%
1910 3277 42%
1911 1811 -45%
1912 1952 8%
1913 1521 -22%
1914 1713 13%
1915 1493 -13%
1916 2001 34%
1917 989 -51%
1918 3138 217%
1919 2140 -32%
1920 2766 29%
1921 1778 -36%
1922 2112 19%
1923 2118 0%
1924 3153 49%
1925 3743 19%
1926 4278 14%
1927 2955 -31%
1928 3669 24%
1929 2327 -37%
1930 2616 12%
1931 1345 -49%
1932 900 -33%
1933 616 -32%
1934 623 1%
1935 727 17%
1936 1244 71%
1937 1685 35%
1938 1674 -1%
1939 2294 37%
1940 3766 64%
1941 4457 18%
1942 6032 35%
1943 3509 -42%
1944 3450 -2%
1945 2211 -36%
1946 3091 40%
1947 6068 96%
1948 5651 -7%
1949 4581 -19%
1950 6134 34%
1951 5239 -15%
1952 5559 6%
1953 5694 2%
1954 7183 26%
1955 7331 2%
1956 4821 -34%
1957 4651 -4%
1958 6144 32%
1959 7806 27%
1960 5624 -28%
1961 6223 11%
1962 8129 31%
1963 6798 -16%
1964 4176 -39%
1965 4969 19%
1966 6738 36%
1967 8929 33%
1968 9619 8%
1969 6368 -34%
1970 3357 -47%
1971 2339 -30%
1972 3743 60%
1973 3530 -6%
1974 3932 11%
1975 4857 24%
1976 6509 34%
1977 9876 52%
1978 9393 -5%
1979 7569 -19%
1980 5774 -24%
1981 5238 -9%
1982 2727 -48%
1983 5231 92%
1984 5780 10%
1985 5148 -11%
1986 5616 9%
1987 7018 25%
1988 6425 -8%
1989 7178 12%
1990 7571 5%
1991 4756 -37%
1992 4929 4%
1993 4531 -8%
1994 5269 16%
1995 4131 -22%
1996 4663 13%
1997 4353 -7%
1998 5453 25%
1999 5419 -1%
2000 4595 -15%
2001 5688 24%
2002 4729 -17%
2003 7468 58%
2004 7516 1%
2005 7684 2%
2006 7347 -4%
2007 6763 -8%
2008 5605 -17%
2009 2950 -47%
2010 2719 -8%
2011 2718 0%
2012 3454 27%
2013 4201 22%
2014 4154 -1%
2015 4310 4%
2016 4893 14%
2017 4922 1%
2018 5245 7%
2019 4691 -11%
2020 4621 -1%
2021 3678 -20%
2022 292 -92%

Commercial buildings were also interesting:

To display on a map, I had to split into "Vashon" and "not Vashon" to get below Google's 2000 limit

year buildings % change
1882 1
1883 1
1884 0
1885 0
1886 0
1887 0
1888 0
1889 0
1890 1
1891 0
1892 0
1893 0
1894 0
1895 1
1896 0
1897 0
1898 0
1899 1
1900 407 40600%
1901 108 -73%
1902 77 -29%
1903 58 -25%
1904 102 76%
1905 91 -11%
1906 180 98%
1907 144 -20%
1908 183 27%
1909 201 10%
1910 346 72%
1911 121 -65%
1912 133 10%
1913 101 -24%
1914 125 24%
1915 94 -25%
1916 131 39%
1917 74 -44%
1918 145 96%
1919 107 -26%
1920 267 150%
1921 107 -60%
1922 153 43%
1923 162 6%
1924 213 31%
1925 259 22%
1926 319 23%
1927 226 -29%
1928 346 53%
1929 189 -45%
1930 241 28%
1931 91 -62%
1932 77 -15%
1933 46 -40%
1934 57 24%
1935 65 14%
1936 117 80%
1937 102 -13%
1938 111 9%
1939 93 -16%
1940 220 137%
1941 160 -27%
1942 135 -16%
1943 93 -31%
1944 58 -38%
1945 170 193%
1946 345 103%
1947 323 -6%
1948 344 7%
1949 278 -19%
1950 413 49%
1951 254 -38%
1952 266 5%
1953 276 4%
1954 346 25%
1955 490 42%
1956 404 -18%
1957 494 22%
1958 471 -5%
1959 557 18%
1960 583 5%
1961 394 -32%
1962 585 48%
1963 535 -9%
1964 460 -14%
1965 563 22%
1966 608 8%
1967 729 20%
1968 761 4%
1969 743 -2%
1970 629 -15%
1971 341 -46%
1972 325 -5%
1973 319 -2%
1974 404 27%
1975 489 21%
1976 402 -18%
1977 629 56%
1978 768 22%
1979 966 26%
1980 872 -10%
1981 510 -42%
1982 408 -20%
1983 462 13%
1984 495 7%
1985 655 32%
1986 682 4%
1987 645 -5%
1988 636 -1%
1989 631 -1%
1990 592 -6%
1991 389 -34%
1992 332 -15%
1993 251 -24%
1994 270 8%
1995 317 17%
1996 343 8%
1997 309 -10%
1998 381 23%
1999 481 26%
2000 553 15%
2001 449 -19%
2002 377 -16%
2003 338 -10%
2004 330 -2%
2005 416 26%
2006 371 -11%
2007 463 25%
2008 440 -5%
2009 294 -33%
2010 216 -27%
2011 148 -31%
2012 191 29%
2013 183 -4%
2014 321 75%
2015 299 -7%
2016 335 12%
2017 341 2%
2018 313 -8%
2019 318 2%
2020 219 -31%
2021 189 -14%
2022 8 -96%



Still nothing downtown. Finally after adding in commercial buildings to 1910, I see some things downtown. There is a separate file for apartments that I may try adding in later. 


Old houses end up being where you would expect them to be. Queen Anne. Capital Hill. Ballard. There are also a smattering of other places.

Maybe apartm

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Sunnyvale politics

Perhaps now would be the time for the council to simply ban contributions from businesses that do business with the city. Then we could actually have debate on the real issues. However, for the the time being, corporate and developer contributions are allowed. So, we have to filter through this before getting to the meat of the campaign.

As for the donations, some candidates are making much ado about peanuts. In the current election, none of the candidates "need" developer contributions to run their campaign. If we exclude the "micro-financed" campaign of Gustavo Magana, all candidates are their top contributor. Excluding developers would not pose any significant hardship on the campaigns. Donations are a viable means for third parties to show support for candidates. Refusing the donations would not change the developer support for the candidate. Accepting the donation would, however, show a willingness to work with the developer for the good of the city.

Claims that these are "career politicians" that are out soliciting heavy donations could also fairly easily be debunked. Four of the candidates are middle-aged (around 50) engineers. There is also a middle-aged CEO and retirement-age investment manager. All six of these guys would likely be well past the prime age for entering a career in politics. They would also be taking a significant pay cut to do so. The only one that seems a likely candidate for a "lifer" is Magana. Alas, he has been fairly well ignored in this election.

It is not likely that developer donations play a strong role in the council decisions. But, lets suppose that they did. Suppose that city council members simply looked at their contributions and voted for the party that would benefit the most. Would this be a bad thing? We have a free market and donation information is publicly available. Opposing parties could make contributions to balance out any big developers. The mantra given by "anti-development" people is that candidates are favoring developers over "ordinary residents". Well, most candidates receive much more from individual residents than they do from developers (much less single developers.) The calculated politician would thus vote in the best interest of the "residents". However, this could very well be in line with the developer.

Pat Meyering raised another issue. Perhaps contributions influence the city to grant better contracts to companies doing business with the city. He suggested the contributions caused the Sunnyvale city council to approve some "pork" for the Smart Station operator. This case can easily be rebuffed by the facts. (Only two candidates received contributions. Even if they had recused themselves, the measure would have passed.) The nature of a "city-manager" type of government makes blatant favoritism more difficult to carry out. Most of the work is carried out by the apolitical city employees who work under the city manager. The primary role of the council is to approve these details. The garbage contract was placed on the "consent" agenda, meaning the council will typically approve it with a number of other items. Politicking only becomes involved when it is removed from this agenda. This is, in fact, exactly what Meyering did. He introduced politics into the discussion as an attempt to discredit the other councilmembers. (In the process, the city staff of Sunnyvale and neighboring cities were also assumed to be corrupt.) The details showed that the owner of the company that runs the Smart station contributed to one candidate in his most recent election, and another candidate in the previous election. Both candidates were terming out of office with no immediate intentions of seeking other office. The tie to receiving a donation is tenuous at best. (I'd saw the fact that one candidate did not receive a donation in the most recent cycle would make him likely to be prejudiced against the company.)

Once we subtract out the issue of "donations", we get to the other issue brought up by the anti-establishment candidates: "development." Development is bad. Developers are bad. City council constantly votes to violate city policy to support these evil developers. The council should stand up to developers and not let them "urbanize" our city and bring with it all the congestion and urbanization. We should try to be like Los Altos Hills or at least Los Altos. Or so the party line goes.

The comparisons can be misleading. Los Altos Hills has an idyllic, rural setting. Lot sizes are large. This limits the number of residents and requires lots of driving, but keeps traffic congestion low. It is located on the periphery of the urbanized area. While 280 passes through on a north-south axis, there is very little reason to travel east-west through the town. Housing prices there are very expensive. Most people in Sunnyvale could not afford to live there if they wanted. If Sunnyvale were to adopt similar policies, people would be priced out of Sunnyvale. There jobs would also leave the city, and overall driving distances and traffic congestion would likely increase. Sunnyvale is "in the middle", with three freeways passing through or near the city, with an additional two expressways passing and numerous major roads passing through.

Los Altos borders sections of Sunnyvale and may be a closer comparison. Los Altos has 28% of the area of Sunnyvale, but only 15% of the population. That leaves it at about half the population density of Sunnyvale. However, Los Altos is almost entirely residential, while Sunnyvale includes a large swath of industrial land. Sunnyvale is also much more diverse in land use than Los Altos. Perhaps a better comparison would be the 94087 zip code. It has a similar "mostly residential" makeup to Los Altos and about the same area, but more than 50,000 people (compared to under 30,000 in Los Altos.) Sunnyvale is just more dense than Los Altos. Los Altos home prices are higher than those in Sunnyvale. Los Altos also has higher taxes (both due to higher values and special measures for schools, libraries, etc.) Sunnyvale residents that prefer the area are more likely to be able to afford the move, however, it wouldn't be without cost. Not only does Los Altos cost more, it lacks some common amenities (like sidewalks and storm drains in most residential areas.) Los Altos has also made a decision to eschew overbuilding roads. (Just take a look at Fremont. From Foothill to expressway to the Sunnyvale border, it is a tree-lined, 2-lane 30 mph road. In Sunnyvale it expands to a 6 lane, 40 mph road. During evening rush hour, there can be a mile-long back-up in Los Altos, while the road moves freely in Sunnyvale.)

While Sunnyvale shares a short border with Los Altos, it primarily borders Cupertino, Mountain View and Santa Clara. All of those cities have approved large scale development. Santa Clara has a new 49ers football stadium. Mountain View has a giant mixed-use project at a former mall on El Camino and San Antonio. (Sunnyvale has tried to do something similar, but at a smaller scale downtown, but it has been eternally stalled.) Cupertino just approved a gigantic Apple spaceship campus right across the street from Sunnyvale. All of these cities get the tax revenue and development fees from these projects. They also have a significant say in how the projects proceed. Sunnyvale can attempt to grovel, but it has no authority in the decision process.

These developments will all produce significant traffic within Sunnyvale. Even if Sunnyvale ends development altogether, traffic will still continue to grow. Sunnyvale also has a large number of employers of its own. Simply cutting off residential development will mean people have to travel from further away to work there, also driving up city traffic congestion. There is high demand for development in the area. If it is not met in Sunnyvale, it will be met in Mountain View - or perhaps Gilroy. The further away the development, the greater the traffic.

Increasing density in a good manner can significantly reduce need for cars and driving. Density also helps to enable lower cost housing. (Simple math: house costs $1.3 million, with $1 million the cost of the land. Put 4 slightly smaller houses on the same land and now you have 4 $500,000 houses. I was disappointed to see one candidate attack density by saying that high density cities like New York have high some of the highest housing costs. This totally confuses cause and effect. New York is dense because of the high demand. Without the demand, costs would plummet. Density is a way to meet the demand. A million dollar Sunnyvale house would cost many times that in a similar-sized lot in Manhattan. People build dense to meet the demand. This makes housing more affordable.

Sunnyvale is lucky to be a core suburban area that remains in high demand. In many other metropolitan areas, cities similar to Sunnyvale are deteriorating. Development has focussed on the inner city and the new outer-ring suburbs, leaving the inner suburbs behind. Sunnyvale is lucky to still be in strong demand for employers and residents. If it were not for development, the city would simply fade in importance and be changing in the "wrong direction." If we force residents out to the central valley, eventually companies will start to locate there, and the allure of Sunnyvale will fade. Rather than fight development, the best reaction is to encourage it to be done right. The development should be coerced together to make a cohesive, walkable community (rather than a series of big box buildings.) There may be issues with development that can be resolved, but fighting development itself is nothing more than a naive sound-bite.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Housing in Sunnyvale

The city of Sunnyvale complained that 700 housing units per year is too much. Just try to tell that to the many people that are trying to buy houses in the city.

The problem is that Sunnyvale is still trying to solve the problems of last century.

100 years ago, people lived close to where they worked. Factories were loud, polluting buildings that people wanted to get away from.

Thus, the city now has "zoning" to solve the problem. Workplaces are separated in to one zone. Residences in to another.

Except, that is no longer the problem. Workplaces are now sterile with some of the most "green" buildings around. The primary cause of the noise and pollution? The very suburban style that is mandated.

Cars cause much of the noise and pollution. Leaf blowers and lawn mowers contribute to the environmental problem. They are often hired by people to maintain their bit of "suburbia" that they rarely use.

The city does claim that it is "supporting" development by a new "industrial to residential" zoning. However, it also alludes to the problems with providing enough subsidized housing.

The problem is that land is so expensive. By requiring low density housing, the city raises the cost. Requiring subsidies further increases the costs.

Eliminating much of the zoning restrictions would help resolve the problems.
Currently, many single-family homes are being torn down and turned in to larger single family homes (even as household sizes are shrinking.) Instead, these could be allowed to be converted to multi-family housing. Replace one housing unit with four, and you get new, low-cost housing. Alas, the city is obsessed with "big" projects, and often ignores the small work.

There is also the location problem. Southern Sunnyvale has high prices. This is where people want to live. The "industrial to residential" areas are in northern Sunnyvale. There are few amenities there. The location also has heavier industry with its associated issues.

Meanwhile, there is a huge office area north of Highway 237 that has no housing at all. Why not allow some here? This will allow people to walk to the many jobs near there. It is also well-served by transit and would allow contra-flow car commuting.

Alas, the city is still solving the problems of the past. Alas, the city's "bosses" further influence this. Zoning and planning is done by the "current" residents rather than the future residents. People that would like to live in the city have no say in the process. Prop 13 further keeps residents in place. Thus people that moved in to suburban tracts surrounded by orchards want it to stay like it was when they moved in - even though the orchards are long gone. Manhattan was once filled with farmland. When will the South Bay get a clue?