Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure

Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure by Tim Harford

Failure and adaptation are the key to success. In biological, species don't make a plan to change. They simply let random differences occur as they adapt to surroundings. Some of these changes end up providing an advantage that becomes replicated. Changes that provide a distinct disadvantage typically fade away. Sometimes these changes come outside the natural environment. English bulldogs are bred to be pleasing to people. In the process, it has become difficult for them to reproduce themselves without human intervention.

Governments and other organizations will often try top-down approaches to dictate the desired outcomes. These approaches may minimize failure, but also minimize breakthrough success. In the case of scientific research, NIH funds "low risk, low reward" research, while HHMI will fund high risk, high reward research. When comparing scientists with similar backgrounds, those with the HHMI tend to produce more significant research than the others. 

Talking telephones were shown in the 1960s Jetsons cartoon. Today, Zoom and other video calls are common place. However, a planning body didn't set out with a plan in 1960 to have talking phones in 60 years. Instead, a number of unrelated innovations ended up coalescing together. The public internet rose out of a network for the defense department and research. Video and audio compression algorithms, microchips, fiber optics and many other components were developed and evolved for different purposes. Eventually video calls could be created by combining a few of these components.

Dictating a desired outcome can often have a deleterious impact. Players may look for a workaround that meets the desired criteria without providing the sought benefits. The fuel economy standards (CAFE) were meant to encourage more fuel efficient vehicles. Instead, they resulted in SUVs and larger vehicles that were classified as "light trucks" and thus adhered to lower standards. A better approach to reduce gasoline use would be to simply make the cost more expensive. This would encourage greater efficiency as well as alternative approaches. GU24 light sockets and energy efficient construction also fall victim to similar mandates. In finance, we often seek regulation to avoid the last disaster, which just enables seeking more loopholes and a potential new disaster. 

The biggest challenge with adapting and letting things come about is with "big problems". Finding a vaccine or a cure for a disease requires a lot of work and effort. Prizes can often be a part of the solution for these big challenges. Allowing internal changes can also help. A skunkworks project may provide a solution, or it may spin people in a different direction. Allowing people with different interests and talents can also help as they look for a new way of doing things. We need to continue to adapt to succeed.