Tuesday, December 16, 2008

It's all about when you lose

One thing clear from the final BCS ratings: if you are going to lose, lose early, and do it before your big win. The Big-12 is a great example. Oklahoma was the first of the top-3 to lose. They followed it up with their 'signature' wins over Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Missouri, and are now ranked #1. Texas had great wins over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas. However, they were all before they lost to Texas Tech. After losing to Tech, their best win was over 7-5 Kansas. That puts them at #3. Unfortunate Tech lost to Oklahoma near the end of the season. They had no signature win after that (beating only lowly Baylor). That leaves them at #7. USC had a signature win over Ohio State early in the season, before their Oregon State loss. Afterward, they proceeded to blow out most of their remaining opponents, including #17 Oregon. Florida, however, had the benefit of having their big games after the Mississippi loss. Their signature win came at the end of the season. Thus, they are playing in the championship game.

Alabama, TCU, and Oklahoma State show there is one exception: it is ok to lose after your signature win as long as the team is ranked above you. TCU is a nice example. Their Oklahoma loss dropped them from the rankings. Then their BYU victory propelled them back up. The loss to Utah had them fall a little - though they seemed to recover most of the fall.

1. Oklahoma 12-1
L: #3 Texas
W: #7 Texas Tech
#13 Oklahoma State
#21 Missouri

2. Florida 12-1
L: #25 Mississippi
W: #15 Georgia
#4 Alabama
#26 Florida State

3. Texas 11-1
L: #7 Texas Tech
W: 7-5 Kansas

4. Alabama 12-1
L: #2 Florida

5. USC 11-1
L: #27 Oregon State
W: #17 Oregon

6. Utah 12-0
W: #11 TCU
#16 BYU
#27 Oregon State

7. Texas Tech 11-1
L: #1 Oklahoma

8. Penn State 11-1
L: 8-4 Iowa
W: #18 Michigan State

9. Boise State 12-0
W: #17 Oregon

10. Ohio State 10-2
L: #8 Penn State
W: #23 Northwestern

11. TCU 10-2
L: #6 Utah
W: 8-4 Air Force

12. Cincinnati 11-2
L: 7-5 Connecticut
W: #20 Pittsburgh

13. Oklahoma State 9-3
L #3 Oklahoma

14. Georgia Tech 9-3
L: 8-4 North Carolina
W: #15 Georgia

No comments:

Post a Comment