Random College Football Thoughts

So far the college football bowl season has been going good for a change. A few thoughts:

I guess they belong

Ohio State was the last of four teams in the college football playoff. Boise State was the "group of 5" team that squeezed into the access bowl. Both one close games, that really weren't all that close.

PR firms don't help on the football field

Baylor hired a PR firm to plead their case for inclusion in the playoff. They had only lost one game and beat the other one-loss team in their conference, therefore they should be in the playoff. What the conveniently did not mention was that they also lost by two touchdowns to West Virginia - a team that TCU beat. And that victory over TCU? Well, it was come-from behind win by 3 points at Baylor. If you go by Sagarin's example of a 3 point home edge, that amounts to a tie. A quick eye test shows that TCU looks like the better team. They also had a stronger non-conference schedule, with the game against Minnesota. The playoff committee saw that also and had TCU ranked higher than Baylor. Alas, Baylor played spoiled brat, and claimed it should be conference champion and thus be in the playoff. Luckily, Ohio State provided an easy way out. Its dominant performance in the Big 10 championship game allowed it to take the final playoff spot. The rankings could then show Baylor ahead of TCU. However, the result was largely meaningless as they would both make New Years games. TCU then pummeled Mississippi, while Baylor lost as Michigan State managed a come from behind win. The law of averages to the rescue.

Boise State to the rescue

Marshall had left the playoffs in a pickle. They were undefeated, but they hadn't played a strong schedule. The playoff rankings barely even included them. But they had not lost. Florida State was also undefeated and seemed a shoe in, despite barely squeaking by many of its opponents. Luckily, Eastern Carolina defeated Marshall in overtime, freeing things up. Boise State was conveniently the Mountain West champion and had only two loses. They had the brand reputation. Everybody heard of them and nobody would complain if they played in a "big bowl". It was also very convenient that they lost a game to Air Force early in the season. Without that loss, Boise's only loss would be to Mississippi. That's the same team that gave Alabama its only regular season loss. It would make for a nice controversy if Boise and Alabama both won. Luckily, the Air Force loss meant there was no argument for playoff inclusion. Boise's victory over Arizona further showed that Boise belonged with the Big Boys.

Florida State really was that bad

It was a good thing we had 4 teams in the playoff this year. Otherwise, we may have ended up with a Florida State/Alabama snooze-fest. One was the lone undefeated team. The other had a few recent championships under their belt. How could you go against either? Ugghh. Luckily, there were four teams. Oregon nicely avenged their lone loss to Arizona. Alabama and Ohio State were one-loss conference champions that were both playing well. TCU also looked great. That would make a great playoff. Alas, we still had to have some politics. Florida State was the undefeated defending champs. They had to be in, even though they were not that great. There was also the bickering in the Big-12. Put the two together and Florida State takes TCU's position. Oregon promptly destroyed Florida State and Ohio State held on to beat Alabama. Was the SEC really deserving of all its championships or did it just get the luck of the draw?

How do the conferences look?

Looking at the Conference Rankings, Conference USA was on top. Alas, none of their teams were ranked. Perhaps we will see some ranking love in the final poll? The Pac-12 was the best of the major conferences. The two loses were both by less than 10 points in Arizona bowls. Oregon also won a semifinal bowl game. The SEC was the next major conference. Alas, their position was held up by the bottom of the conference and the "weaker" eastern division. Ranked teams were 2-5, with all teams in major bowls losing. Big-10 ended up at .500, with victories in the big bowls. Sun Belt, Mountain West and American were all right at or below .500, with the lone ranked team (Boise) vindicating itself well. ACC and Big-12 did finish above the MAC. Can you say overrated?

Grading the Mountain West and WAC bowls

In its bowl games, the Mountain West made a strong case for the conference depth, with the fourth and fifth place teams etching out impressive victories over quality teams. BYU and Utah proved they could handle the Pac-10 just fine. The winning streak, alas, came to an end when TCU lost to Boise State. However, the 4-1 record is one of the best of any conferences.
The WAC, on the other hand, would be best off sticking to the state of Idaho. Both Idaho and Boise State had nice victories, almost compensating for the ugly losses by Nevada and Fresno State.

Wyoming: A+ (35-28 vs. Fresno State )
Fresno State: D-
An overtime thriller by a 5th place Mountain West team - a team that barely squeaked in to a bowl game. Fresno State is a quality team that almost always has a winning season in spite of one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country. Wyoming? During the regular season, they were outscored 193-327. The only team with a winning record they beat was 7-5 Weber State (a I-AA team). This is the type of team you'd expect to be happy to get blown away at a bowl game. Instead, they manage to fight out a win. This is perhaps the best statement for depth that the Mountain West can make.

Air Force: A+ (47-20 vs. Houston) Houston has 10 wins, including victories over three BCS conference teams. Houston's victories were not over cupcakes: four of the teams they beat were playing in bowls. The three loses were all close. Air Force had only managed to beat one bowl team (Wyoming). Houston and Air Force had met two times last season (including the Armed Forces bowl last season.) Both teams were familiar with each other and familiar with the bowl. It seemed that Houston would have cake walk. Instead, Air Force blew them away. The Mountain West has four power teams.

BYU: A (44-20 vs. Oregon State) Perhaps BYU should sell Las Vegas bowl tickets as part of the season ticket package. It seems that no matter where they finish in the conference, they end up in Vegas. Oregon State was probably disappointed to miss out on the rose bowl and a little unfamiliar with Vegas in December. However, that is not an excuse for getting blown away. BYU showed that it is a power school.

Utah: A (37-27 vs Cal) Due to television-induced scheduling weirdness, Cal played Washington the week after the "Big Game" with Stanford. Thus they followed up a great rivalry victory with an ugly loss. Utah also ended the season with a rivalry loss. After last season's Sugar Bowl victory, Utah had high hopes, until the early season loss to Oregon smashed them. After starting out strong this season, Cal also had high hopes - until an early season loss to Oregon smashed them. In the end Utah was able to stay a little more focused and continue their nine game bowl victory streak (tying them with USC for most in a row)

Boise State: B+ (17-10)
TCU: C
Neither team looked great on the big stage. Boise State now matched Utah's two wins in BCS bowls. TCU goes home with yet another "might have been" season. It's unfortunate that they didn't get a chance to take on Florida and Cincinnati. I guess the powers that be figured Boise State would be the best way to stop the Mountain West bowl streak. These were two closely matched teams, with a close score,so it is hard to penalize either too much. However, TCU was the strong favorite. Perhaps this will be the impetus to add Boise to the Mountain West. The Fiesta bowl may also think twice about inviting two non-BCS schools.

Idaho (43-32 vs. Bowling Green): A. Coming from the dregs of the WAC to pull off their second bowl win ever. Perhaps the Pac-10 will invite Idaho back. Well, at least the on-off rivalry with Washington State will no longer look like a high school game. This looked like the feel-good season turn around bowl victory - until it was eclipsed by another game involving a WAC team.

Nevada (10-45 vs SMU): F. Nevada was supposed to be a good team. SMU managed a great turn-around, going from two victories in the last two seasons to a bowl game this season. However, they also managed to lose to Washington State. Nobody loses to Washington State. But, they managed to bask in the sun in Hawaii. Perhaps the Hawaii band-members that Nevada recruited were really June Jones turncoats. Or maybe we can just blame injuries. Regardless of the blame, Nevada simply embarrassed itself.

It's all about when you lose

One thing clear from the final BCS ratings: if you are going to lose, lose early, and do it before your big win. The Big-12 is a great example. Oklahoma was the first of the top-3 to lose. They followed it up with their 'signature' wins over Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Missouri, and are now ranked #1. Texas had great wins over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas. However, they were all before they lost to Texas Tech. After losing to Tech, their best win was over 7-5 Kansas. That puts them at #3. Unfortunate Tech lost to Oklahoma near the end of the season. They had no signature win after that (beating only lowly Baylor). That leaves them at #7. USC had a signature win over Ohio State early in the season, before their Oregon State loss. Afterward, they proceeded to blow out most of their remaining opponents, including #17 Oregon. Florida, however, had the benefit of having their big games after the Mississippi loss. Their signature win came at the end of the season. Thus, they are playing in the championship game.

Alabama, TCU, and Oklahoma State show there is one exception: it is ok to lose after your signature win as long as the team is ranked above you. TCU is a nice example. Their Oklahoma loss dropped them from the rankings. Then their BYU victory propelled them back up. The loss to Utah had them fall a little - though they seemed to recover most of the fall.

1. Oklahoma 12-1
L: #3 Texas
W: #7 Texas Tech
   #13 Oklahoma State
   #21 Missouri

2. Florida   12-1
L: #25 Mississippi
W: #15 Georgia
   #4 Alabama
   #26 Florida State

3. Texas 11-1
L: #7 Texas Tech
W: 7-5 Kansas

4. Alabama 12-1
L: #2 Florida

5. USC 11-1
L: #27 Oregon State
W: #17 Oregon

6. Utah 12-0
W: #11 TCU
   #16 BYU
   #27 Oregon State

7. Texas Tech 11-1
L: #1 Oklahoma

8. Penn State 11-1
L: 8-4 Iowa
W: #18 Michigan State

9. Boise State 12-0
W: #17 Oregon

10. Ohio State  10-2
L: #8 Penn State
W: #23 Northwestern

11. TCU 10-2
L: #6 Utah
W: 8-4 Air Force

12. Cincinnati 11-2
L: 7-5 Connecticut
W: #20 Pittsburgh

13. Oklahoma State 9-3
L #3 Oklahoma 

14. Georgia Tech 9-3
L: 8-4 North Carolina
W: #15 Georgia

USC's loss - good for the PAC-10

The Pac-10 has completed most of their non-conference football schedule intact. A .500 winning percentage is not all that bad - especially when you consider they were playing real competition, as opposed to the I-AA home fluff the certain southern conferences like to play.

With only USC currently ranked, there is not a lot of chance that another team would make it to a BCS bowl, so the best shot at a big money postseason would be for a lot of teams to play in bowls. Six wins are needed for bowls. With an even nonconference won-loss mark, all it would take is a balanced conference schedule and everyone could end up 6-6 and play in bowls.

There are also a few nonconference games remaining:
Oregon State at Utah
Washington at Notre Dame
Washington State at Hawaii
UCLA at Fresno State
Notre Dame at USC
Stanford at Notre Dame
Colorado State at Cal

None of the games look like a sure thing in either direction. However, Utah will probably beat Oregon State (The Beavers have done great at home, but miserable on the road.) USC will probably beat Note Dame. Cal should beat Colorado State. Stanford and Washington at Notre Dame could be difficult to predict. We'll give it a split. UCLA is on a miserable streak, and will probably continue that against Fresno. Hawaii is nothing like they were last year, and will probably lose to Washington State. That would leave the pac-10 up a game for nonconference (with Washington state playing an extra game.) So, there still is a possibility that everyone qualifies for a bowl.

However, a more likely scenario would see the Washington schools continue to stink it up, with UCLA still feeding at the bottom. Cal and Oregon are really not in that bad a position. Oregon's lone loss is to Boise State. That Boise State team that has one of the best records over the past 5 years... Oh, and Oregon was playing with the 5th-string quarterback. Boise will likely increase in the rankings, increasing Oregon's BCS rank (and Purdue may have some surprises) If the QBs can stay healthy, Oregon could win 8 or 9 more games, and be in a position for a BCS bowl. Cal also has some could excuses - after all, there lone loss was after a cross country trip to play an early game in Maryland. If they run the table, they should qualify. However, since Oregon, USC and Cal have yet to play each other, one will end up with two loses. (And Cal still has to play a Mountain West team!)

Another scenario has Oregon State winning the remainder of its conference games, and USC winning the rest of its games. USC would probably still rank high enough and have the cachet to be taken as an at-large BCS pick. Oregon State, by virtue of their head-to-head victory over USC would be the conference champ (even if they lose to Utah, they would still be 9-3). Seeing two Pac-10 teams in the big bowls would really irk some of those southern conferences, but so be it.

On to more realistic conditions, the Pac-10 has arrangements with 7 bowls. Can 7 teams make it? USC, Oregon, and Cal should easily qualify. Arizona needs just three more wins. Unfortunately, the competition will be a little tougher than Idaho. If they can beat the 2 Washington schools, and eak out one other win (perhaps Oregon State, or in-state rival ASU), they would be in. ASU has the tough part of its schedule coming up with Cal, Oregon and USC. They would probably need to win at least one of those to keep from getting too demoralized. But even if they lose, they have the Washingtons, UCLA and Arizona.
That would leave Stanford and Oregon State. Stanford can be totally unpredictable. Perhaps a win at USC and loss at Washington? 4 more wins is a possibility. However, that would require winning something on the road. Oregon State may have a tougher time. However, if they continue their string of winning at home, they can do it. (Though it would entail beating Cal, ASU, and Oregon.) They also have a 13 game schedule. (Would that require 7 wins to be eligible?) UCLA? Well, if they find their Tennessee form, they could be back in the picture. Washington? Their schedule is often ranked the toughest in IA football. They could turn things around when they start playing unranked teams. Washinton State? Well they lost to Baylor. I'd give the conference about 70% odds of filling all the spots.