The table below shows how the top 27 BCS teams did against other teams in the BCS rankings. (#26 Florida State and #27 Oregon State since they showed up frequently and seemed to be before a big drop off in points.) Only wins against the top 27 are counted, while all losses are shown. The other loses of ranked teams are also shown.
If a team lost to a lower ranked team, they were docked their highest ranked win (x). Extra credit is given for nonconference wins (*). If a team lost to more teams than it has good wins, then it gets multiple x's. Teams playing in BCS bowls are marked with (+).
Oklahoma looks like a clear bet as the best team. Even after docking their best win (due to the Texas loss), they still have 4 wins over top 27 teams, including two wins over non-conference teams. There are five teams with 2 non-docked wins. Texas Tech beat the best teams. Even if they were to move up to 2nd, they could still keep both wins. However, moved there, Texas wouldn't be penalized for the loss, and would move ahead. A solution would be to take next-in line Utah. They are also have the highest quality wins that include a non-conference opponent. Florida does have a quality nonconference win, but they don't appear until after Utah. Statistically, Oklahoma vs. Utah would be the best championship game. However, Oklahoma vs. Florida is not too far off.
As for BCS bowl participants, having 6 games would make things clearer. There seems to be a pretty clear separation between the top 12 and the remainder. Since there are only 10 teams, the simple formula is to take all schools, order them by number of non-docked wins. In each group, order those with non-conference wins first, then in each subgroup, order the teams by highest ranked wins. If a reordering would cause a team to drop, then we go back to the BCS rating. (In this case, Texas is before Texas Tech - if Texas Tech were moved ahead, Texas would no longer be docked for its Texas Tech loss, and would thus moved ahead, which would cause it to be docked again... Similarly, Ohio State would move in to the 'two win' category, ahead of USC. However, by doing so, it would be docked its best win, and USC would get a good non-conference win, and move ahead.) The teams that got 'shortchanged' from the BCS were all non-traditional powers: Boise State, TCU and Texas Tech. The 'rules' give the spots to less deserving conference champions (Cincy and Virginia Tech) while excluding Texas Tech. Pure politics denied TCU and Boise State the spot going to Ohio State.
Team Rank of 'undocked' victories
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+Oklahoma: *11,*12, 13, 21
+Utah: 11,*27
+Florida: 15,*26
+Penn State: 18,*27
+Texas: 13, 21
Texas Tech: 3, 13
Boise State: *17
+Alabama: 15
TCU: 16
+USC: 17
-------------------------------
+Ohio State: 18, 23
Oklahoma State: 21
+Cincinnati:
Georgia Tech:
Georgia:
BYU:
Oregon:
Michigan State:
+Virginia Tech: xx
Pittsburgh: xx
Missouri: x
Ball State: x
Northwestern: x
Boston College:
Mississippi: xx
Florida State:
Oregon State:
Complete details
1. Oklahoma
W: x#7 Texas Tech
*#11 TCU (other loss to #6 Utah)
*#12 Cincinnati (other loss to 7-5 Conecticut)
#13 Oklahoma State (Other losses to #3, #7)
#21 Missouri (others, #3, #13, 7-5 Kansas)
L: #3 Texas
2. Florida
W: x#4 Alabama
#15 Georgia (other losses: #14 Georgia Tech, #4 Alabama)
*#26 Florida State (7-5 Wake Forest, #24 Boston College, #14 Georgia Tech)
L: #25 Mississippi
3. Texas
W: x#1 Oklahoma
#13 Oklahoma State (#1, #7)
#21 Missouri (#3, #13, 7-5)
L: #7 Texas Tech
4. Alabama
W: x#15 Georgia (#2, #14)
L: #2 Florida
5. USC
W: x*#10 Ohio State (#8 Penn State)
#17 Oregon (#9 Boise State, 8-4 California)
L: #27 Oregon State (#6 Utah, #8 Penn State, 5-7 Stanford)
6. Utah
W: #11 TCU (#1 Oklahoma)
#16 BYU (#11 TCU)
*#27 Oregon State (#5, #8, 5-7 Stanford)
7. Texas Tech
W: #3 Texas
#13 Oklahoma State (#1, #3)
L: #1 Oklahoma
8. Penn State
W: x#10 Ohio State (#5 USC)
#18 Michigan State (#10 Ohio State, 8-4 California)
*#27 Oregon State (#5,#6, 5-7 Stanford)
L: 8-4 Iowa
9. Boise State
W: *#17 Oregon (#5, 8-4 California)
10. Ohio State
W: #18 Michigan State (#8, 8-4 California)
#23 Northwestern (#18, 3-9 Indiana)
L: #8 Penn State
#5 USC
11. TCU
W: #16 BYU (#6 Utah)
L: #1 Oklahoma
#6 Utah
12. Cincinnati
W: x#20 Pittsburgh (7-5 Rutgers, 6-6 Bowling Green)
L: #1 Oklahoma
7-5 Connecticut
13. Oklahoma State
W: #21 Missouri (#1, #3, 7-5)
L: #1 Oklahoma
#3 Texas
#7 Texas Tech
14. Georgia Tech
W: x#15 Georgia
x#24 Boston College
x#26 Florida State
L: #19 Virginia Tech
5-7 Virginia
8-4 North Carolina (#28)
15. Georgia
W:
L: #2 Florida
#4 Alabama
#14 Georgia Tech
16. BYU
L: #6 Utah
#11 TCU
17. Oregon
W: x#27 Oregon State
L: #5 USC
#9 Boise State
8-4 California
18. Michigan State
W: x#23 Northwestern
L: #8 Penn State
#10 Ohio State
8-4 California
19. Virginia Tech
W: x#24 Boston College
x#14 Georgia Tech
xx
L: #26 Florida State
9-4 East Carolina
#24 Boston College
7-5 Miami
20. Pittsburgh
W: xx
L: 7-5 Rutgers
6-6 Bowling Green
#12 Cincinatti
21. Missouri
W: x
L: #1 Oklahoma
#3 Texas
#13 Oklahoma State
7-5 Kansas
22. Ball State
W: x
L: 8-5 Buffalo
23. Northwestern
W: x
L: #18 Michigan State
#10 Ohio State
3-9 Indiana
24. Boston College
W: x#19 Georgia Tech
x#26 Florida State
L: #14 Georgia Tech
#19 Virginia Tech
7-5 Clemson
8-4 North Carolina
25. Mississippi
W: x#2 Florida
xx
L: 6-6 Vanderbilt
7-5 Wake Forest
#4 Alabama
7-5 South Carolina
26. Florida State
W: x#19 Virginia Tech
L: #2 Florida
#14 Georgia Tech
#24 Boston College
7-5 Wake Forest
27. Oregon State
W: x#5 USC
L: #8 Penn State
#6 Utah
#17 Oregon
7-5 Stanford
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