Alabama was a few touchdowns ahead of Auburn. Then they must have realized, "hey, if we win we might not have an SEC team in the title game." So, like the true southern gent, they keeled over and let Auburn have the game.
Oregon looked like they were having trouble at Arizona. But, hey, the Ducks don't really start to play until the second half anyway. (Notwithstanding the Cal episode - they must have got lost on the way to the stadium there.)
Things looked close, but the crisis was averted. Sure, Oregon isn't in the Big- conference, but at least they are BCS, undefeated, and most important, have gobs of money and fans.
In the late game, the BCS got another dream come true as Nevada defeated Boise. Luckily for BCS-land, Nevada had to travel to Hawaii this year and has a loss to their record. Two one-less WAC teams can enjoy their top-20 rankings and visits to exciting bowl games like the Kraft Fight Hunger bowl. No need to worry the BCS there.
Unfortunately, not all was well in BCS land. The Big East continued its string of ineptitude, leaving Connecticut in the driver's seat for the title. They just have to beat Cincinnati (who is a far cry from last year's team) and USF (who seems to end the season a few weeks before other teams.) Neither game will be easy, but both are possible. That will leave an 8-4 team (i.e. one that does not have enough wins to be an at large team) in the BCS game. Worse yet, they are from a relatively small market that doesn't care much about football. They do have good basketball fans, so there is some hope that they make it out there.
In the best scenario, UConn loses and West Virginia wins, leaving an 'acceptable' 9-3 West Virginia to play in a BCS bowl. But this is the Big East, so it wouldn't be too surprising to see them lose to Rutgers. This could allow Pitt, with a 7-5 record to make it. If Rutgers wins and Cincinnati manages to run the table, the Bearcats could actually share the Big East championship - at 6-6. (However, with this scenario, West Virginia would probably win the tiebreakers.)
Luckily, no one really cares about the Big East in BCS land. They will probably just be the filler for some good traveling at-large Big-10 team to pound.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
20,000 Leagues Under the Sea
The science seems impressive, though the story gets tedious. The tone of the story felt more like Darwin than other Jules Verne adventure novels.
In this story, there are reports of a giant sea creature in the ocean. The narrator ends up on a ship that is going out to investigate. Through a series of events, he and two others end up being rescued by a the "creature" which turns out to be the ship "Nautalis". The captain of the ship, Nemo, has recused himself from society and lives now in the sea.
The narrator and his companions are now "prisoners" aboard the Nautilus. However, they are given freedom to explore, with their only main restriction that they are not permitted to leave the ship on their own. Through this they discover all of the great discoveries that Nemo has made, including submarine travel, undersea tunnels, electric ships, precious metal and mineral stores, strange animals and parts of the earth nobody has seen. Some of the science was ahead of its time, while other has been shown to be wrong.
In there voyages, they have a few adventures, including Nemo's attacks on some unknown enemy crews. However, the main conflict is against nature, rather than man. They have to fight giant sea creatures, escape from enclosing icebergs and endure horrid storms.
Eventually the narrator and his companions (the Narrator, Pierre Aronnax, his servant, Conseil, and the Canadian, Ned Land) escape the ship on a boat and live to tell their tale.
Monday, November 22, 2010
The New Frugality
Conservative, simplistic advice in consumer economics. It is well carried out with plenty of personal experiences. The underlying thesis is that the fall of the economy in the "great recession" has triggered a change in behavior and circumstances. The excessive consumption of the past cannot be continued and today people will be required to live within their means. He thus provides a number of tips for doing that.
The goal, however, is not to sacrifice the quality of life. Instead, "excess" should be siphoned off, while still spending generously (within one's means) on areas that provide value. Debt is generally to be avoided, but is appropriate in some cases. Renting a house is often very appropriate, especially when house values are high relative to rentals. Saving for retirement and other events is good. Credit cards can be good or bad depending on how they are used.
The author presents his "goals" in a fairly open manner, acknowledging that different people function in different ways.
The goal, however, is not to sacrifice the quality of life. Instead, "excess" should be siphoned off, while still spending generously (within one's means) on areas that provide value. Debt is generally to be avoided, but is appropriate in some cases. Renting a house is often very appropriate, especially when house values are high relative to rentals. Saving for retirement and other events is good. Credit cards can be good or bad depending on how they are used.
The author presents his "goals" in a fairly open manner, acknowledging that different people function in different ways.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
This Missng Golden Ticket
The selling point of this book is the "missing chapter" from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. This is a humorous chapter about "spotty powder", a substance nearly identical to sugar, but which causes short term "spots" to appear on the body.
Unfortunately, this chapter is only a couple of pages long, so a lot had to be added to complete a book. The chapter also featured characters that did not make it in the the final cut of the book. Some of the book provide background on the book's creation and the "missing characters" that didn't make it in to the published book.
The main "theme" of the book, however, is Raold Dahl's year. Each month is given a brief chapter. In between these chapters are other bits, including Chocolate Factory trivia, tips on writing, and even candy recipes. The in-between chapters tends to be better than the actual "month" chapters. The book, however, is quite a jumble, jumping from serious to humorous. It is really only for the most dedicated Roald Dahl fan who must have everything.
Unfortunately, this chapter is only a couple of pages long, so a lot had to be added to complete a book. The chapter also featured characters that did not make it in the the final cut of the book. Some of the book provide background on the book's creation and the "missing characters" that didn't make it in to the published book.
The main "theme" of the book, however, is Raold Dahl's year. Each month is given a brief chapter. In between these chapters are other bits, including Chocolate Factory trivia, tips on writing, and even candy recipes. The in-between chapters tends to be better than the actual "month" chapters. The book, however, is quite a jumble, jumping from serious to humorous. It is really only for the most dedicated Roald Dahl fan who must have everything.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
It Can't Happen Here
A Democrat politician builds up a base of support of a political operative and a radio pastor and his conservative organization. After assuming the presidency he uses the pastors now-militarized organization to help him assume fascist dictatorial powers. He institutes policies that appear on the surface to be beneficial to the common man. However, the prime beneficiaries tend to be the big businesses. The pastor is quickly incarcerated "for his safety" and a strict police state eventually results, with communication and transportation heavily restricted. An underground resistance movement gradually pops up.
The president has a big heart and thinks he is doing the best for the country. However, he is eventually deposed by his operative, who is later assassinated by someone else. After a string of assassinations, the country starts to return to some sense of normalcy.
The author is obviously trying to make a political statement against the gradual reduction of rights either by their outright restriction or by the granting of new rights. Even the best of intentions can lead towards the path of the downfall. Fascism can easily arise from seemingly left-leaning liberal policies. Unfortunately, the book does go a little too far over the top in the "fall" of the society, making the characters a little less believable than they could be.
The president has a big heart and thinks he is doing the best for the country. However, he is eventually deposed by his operative, who is later assassinated by someone else. After a string of assassinations, the country starts to return to some sense of normalcy.
The author is obviously trying to make a political statement against the gradual reduction of rights either by their outright restriction or by the granting of new rights. Even the best of intentions can lead towards the path of the downfall. Fascism can easily arise from seemingly left-leaning liberal policies. Unfortunately, the book does go a little too far over the top in the "fall" of the society, making the characters a little less believable than they could be.
Stranger In A Strange Land
A child conceived on an ill-fated mission to Mars is raised by Martians. As a young adult, he is chosen to return to earth on a reconnaissance mission. However, he doesn't know his true purpose, and ends up becoming a pawn in the goals of many nefarious characters. Due to his martian upbringing, he behaves differently, and seems to have many "supernatural" powers. Also, due to some legal precedents, he has enormous wealth and power. A journalist and a nurse "rescue" him from a hospital and team with a renaissance-man lawyer and his "harem". The "man from mars" eventually founds his own religion (which seems seems more in line with a hippie free-love movement) and is "martyred" by an upset public.
The book starts out as a fairly standard science fiction book, but then starts to get very tedious as he meanders around his Martian-influenced morality.
The book starts out as a fairly standard science fiction book, but then starts to get very tedious as he meanders around his Martian-influenced morality.
We'll Always Have Paris
A collection of Bradbury short stories. The stories tend to deal with middle age adults and social situations. Some have a distinct science fiction flavor (such as a "living" radio character or a space trip to mars), however, the focus is on the human reactions rather than the science. Almost all the stories end with some sort of minor twist. Nothing stood out as being really great.
Friday, November 19, 2010
The Fourth Bear
Jasper Fforde writes with a zany brand of humor similar to the late Douglas Adams. In this book, we encounter a number of persons of dubious reality (PDRs). Luckily, the police have a nursery crimes division that helps solve crimes involving these characters. The lead character, Jack, is an officer of the nursery crimes division who happens to be a PDR himself. In the story, we get the gingerbread man as a genetically engineered master criminal, a "binary" space alien as a police force member, and all sorts of other bizarre characters. This book must have been a blast to write, and makes a great read.
The BCS conference beauty contest
In the Yahoo! Sports Blog Pollin' table, a list of the top 6 wins by each team is provided. The inclusion or exclusion of a team in the "quality list" is somewhat arbitrary. (3-6 Cincinnati, 4-6 Ole Miss and 5-5 BYU appear, but 7-4 Toledo doesn't make the cut. The criteria seems to be "BCS conference team or popular non-BCS team.) However aside from the criteria issue, it appears that the wins are built almost entirely of teams in the same conference.
TCU and Oklahoma are the only teams that get credited with 3 of their top 6 wins against non-conference opponents. (though Boise State's Toledo win would probably rank as 4th best if it were included.) Only 5 teams (Boise, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Arizona) include victories over top 25 out of conference teams.
So what does this tell us? Most top ranked teams get there by beating high-ranked conference opponents. These high ranked opponents are high-ranked because: 1) they have few losses in conference play and 2) they have victories over inferior teams out of conference.
How is the best way to carry this out? Well, the ACC, SEC and Big-12 have a pretty good model. 1) They have the "BCS" status that allows them to schedule money games against inferior opponents. Most teams will schedule three or four easy wins. 2) They have 12 teams in the conference, yet only play 8 conference games. This minimizes the internal conference carnage.
The Big-10 comes close to the model, with 8 conference games and an 11 team league.
The Big East plays a full round-robin schedule, but due to league size play only 7 conference games. In this case, the five non-conference games works against them. They lack the money, reputation (and quality) to play 5 sure-wins, and often end up with more competitive non-conference match-ups. The complete round-robin schedule also hurts.
Of the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 does the worst job of guaranteeing its BCS riches. The 9 round-robin conference schedule adds in additional conference losses. They also tend to schedule more competitive non-conference games. (Geography is a factor - the WAC and Mountain West are the nearest conferences, and happen to be the best of the non-BCS conferences.)
For the non-BCS conferences, scheduling is the big disadvantage. The lower teams in the conference often schedule body-bag games to bring in revenue, adding to conference loses. Due to poor conference perception, the top teams schedule more competitive games (and fewer "sure wins").
The ranking of each team, with the top nonconference wins (number proceeding is where it ranks in top 6 wins, number after is where the team ranks in top 25).
1) Auburn : 6. Clemson
2) Oregon : 0
3) TCU : 2. Baylor, 5. SMU, 6. Oregon State
4) Boise State: 1. Virginia Tech (16), 3. Oregon State
5) LSU : 4. West Virginia, 5. North Carolina
6) Stanford: 3. Notre Dame
7) Nebraska: 5. Washington
8) Oklahoma State: 0
9) Michigan State: 5. Notre Dame
10) Wisconsin: 3. Arizona State
11) Ohio State: 1. Miami (25)
12) Alabama: 4. Penn State
13) Missouri: 4. Illinois
14) Oklahoma: 1. Florida State (24), 2. Air Force, 6. Cincinnati
15) Arkansas: 2. Texas A&M (19)
16) Virginia Teach: 5. North Carolina
17) Nevada: 1. Cal
18) South Carolina: 0
19) Texas A&M: 0
20) USC: 0
21) Arizona: 1. Iowa (22)
22) Iowa: 0
23) NC State: 2. UCF, 5. Cincinnati
24) Florida State: 4. BYU
25) Miami: 3. Pitt
TCU and Oklahoma are the only teams that get credited with 3 of their top 6 wins against non-conference opponents. (though Boise State's Toledo win would probably rank as 4th best if it were included.) Only 5 teams (Boise, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Arizona) include victories over top 25 out of conference teams.
So what does this tell us? Most top ranked teams get there by beating high-ranked conference opponents. These high ranked opponents are high-ranked because: 1) they have few losses in conference play and 2) they have victories over inferior teams out of conference.
How is the best way to carry this out? Well, the ACC, SEC and Big-12 have a pretty good model. 1) They have the "BCS" status that allows them to schedule money games against inferior opponents. Most teams will schedule three or four easy wins. 2) They have 12 teams in the conference, yet only play 8 conference games. This minimizes the internal conference carnage.
The Big-10 comes close to the model, with 8 conference games and an 11 team league.
The Big East plays a full round-robin schedule, but due to league size play only 7 conference games. In this case, the five non-conference games works against them. They lack the money, reputation (and quality) to play 5 sure-wins, and often end up with more competitive non-conference match-ups. The complete round-robin schedule also hurts.
Of the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 does the worst job of guaranteeing its BCS riches. The 9 round-robin conference schedule adds in additional conference losses. They also tend to schedule more competitive non-conference games. (Geography is a factor - the WAC and Mountain West are the nearest conferences, and happen to be the best of the non-BCS conferences.)
For the non-BCS conferences, scheduling is the big disadvantage. The lower teams in the conference often schedule body-bag games to bring in revenue, adding to conference loses. Due to poor conference perception, the top teams schedule more competitive games (and fewer "sure wins").
The ranking of each team, with the top nonconference wins (number proceeding is where it ranks in top 6 wins, number after is where the team ranks in top 25).
1) Auburn : 6. Clemson
2) Oregon : 0
3) TCU : 2. Baylor, 5. SMU, 6. Oregon State
4) Boise State: 1. Virginia Tech (16), 3. Oregon State
5) LSU : 4. West Virginia, 5. North Carolina
6) Stanford: 3. Notre Dame
7) Nebraska: 5. Washington
8) Oklahoma State: 0
9) Michigan State: 5. Notre Dame
10) Wisconsin: 3. Arizona State
11) Ohio State: 1. Miami (25)
12) Alabama: 4. Penn State
13) Missouri: 4. Illinois
14) Oklahoma: 1. Florida State (24), 2. Air Force, 6. Cincinnati
15) Arkansas: 2. Texas A&M (19)
16) Virginia Teach: 5. North Carolina
17) Nevada: 1. Cal
18) South Carolina: 0
19) Texas A&M: 0
20) USC: 0
21) Arizona: 1. Iowa (22)
22) Iowa: 0
23) NC State: 2. UCF, 5. Cincinnati
24) Florida State: 4. BYU
25) Miami: 3. Pitt
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Comparing the BCS humans to computers
http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1152891
It is intriguing to compare the difference between the computer and "human" scores in the BCS rankings. The computer scores are prohibited from including margin of victory in their score calculations. A commanding 30 point road win counts as much as a last-second hail-Mary for a one point home victory.
From that, we can compare the rankings of the top 9 teams. These all conveniently have the same rankings in both human polls used. They also have no agreement between computers and humans.
This season, Oregon and Boise have been dominating just about everyone they've played. Unfortunately, a lot of their opponents have had fairly mediocre records. Thus, it would make sense to see the humans give them a boost that they computers can't.
LSU and Auburn, on the other hand, have beat a number of highly-touted teams. However, many of their victories have been less than impressive. (LSU only beat a mediocre Tennessee team because the Volunteers had 13 men on the field for the final play.) It makes sense to see these teams docked by the humans.
TCU is a little more difficult to explain. They have played dominated a schedule of "ok" teams. The domination would seem to imply a preference in the human polls. However, the computers slightly favor them. This may be do to the poor performance against a poorly-perceived San Diego State team, coupled with Notre Dame's victory over Utah. (TCU's previous marquee win.) Though perhaps the computers get this right in spite of their limitations. San Diego State's previous two losses can be at least partially attributed to late-game blown calls. The 5-point loss to TCU was their biggest loss of the season. This week Baylor, Utah and Oregon State all loss, hurting the ranking with the computers. However, even last week, the humans had them lower than the computers.
Stanford is another odd case. They are 5th in the computers, yet 8th in the human polls. Most wins have been of the impressive-domination variety. They were also ahead for a good portion of their loss to #1 Oregon. They recently destroyed a ranked Arizona team. Their close victories were over a ranked USC team and against Arizona State in Tempe.
The Stanford rankings are especially baffling when compared to Wisconsin. The Badgers also had a narrow win over ASU (though that game was in Madison). They also squeaked out a victory over the ranked Iowa team. They have had a few blowout wins over mediocre teams. They also had a nice victory over a ranked Ohio State, and a loss to a one-loss Michigan State. The top of the resume seems fairly comparable to Stanford's. At the bottom, however, you have 1-win San Jose State, and 2 win UNLV, Minnesota, and FCS Austin Peay. Stanford has 2 win Washington State and Wake Forest, as well as 6-4 FCS Sacramento State at the bottom. The computers seem to have things right. You have to wonder why the pollsters love Wisconsin so much.
Ohio State also gets the Wisconsin treatment, with a human ranking much higher than the computer ranking. In this case the name is the big factor. After all, the are Ohio State.
The 'name recognition' of Ohio State may also be what gives Nebraska the lower computer ranking. That, and the fact that Texas has shown itself to be really, really bad. Nebraska seems to be pulling the anti-Cal, putting up its worst performances at home.
Team Harris Coaches Comp. SOS
1. Oregon (1) 1st 1st 2nd T-87th
2. Auburn (2) 2nd 2nd 1st 12th
3. TCU (3) 4th 4th T-3rd 55th
4. Boise St. (4) 3rd 3rd T-6th T-87th
5. LSU (5) 6th 6th T-3rd T-8th
6. Stanford (6) 8th 8th 5th T-65th
7. Wisconsin (7) 5th 5th 12th 75th
8. Nebraska (8) 9th 9th 8th T-57th
9. Ohio State (9) 7th 7th 13th T-70th
It is intriguing to compare the difference between the computer and "human" scores in the BCS rankings. The computer scores are prohibited from including margin of victory in their score calculations. A commanding 30 point road win counts as much as a last-second hail-Mary for a one point home victory.
From that, we can compare the rankings of the top 9 teams. These all conveniently have the same rankings in both human polls used. They also have no agreement between computers and humans.
This season, Oregon and Boise have been dominating just about everyone they've played. Unfortunately, a lot of their opponents have had fairly mediocre records. Thus, it would make sense to see the humans give them a boost that they computers can't.
LSU and Auburn, on the other hand, have beat a number of highly-touted teams. However, many of their victories have been less than impressive. (LSU only beat a mediocre Tennessee team because the Volunteers had 13 men on the field for the final play.) It makes sense to see these teams docked by the humans.
TCU is a little more difficult to explain. They have played dominated a schedule of "ok" teams. The domination would seem to imply a preference in the human polls. However, the computers slightly favor them. This may be do to the poor performance against a poorly-perceived San Diego State team, coupled with Notre Dame's victory over Utah. (TCU's previous marquee win.) Though perhaps the computers get this right in spite of their limitations. San Diego State's previous two losses can be at least partially attributed to late-game blown calls. The 5-point loss to TCU was their biggest loss of the season. This week Baylor, Utah and Oregon State all loss, hurting the ranking with the computers. However, even last week, the humans had them lower than the computers.
Stanford is another odd case. They are 5th in the computers, yet 8th in the human polls. Most wins have been of the impressive-domination variety. They were also ahead for a good portion of their loss to #1 Oregon. They recently destroyed a ranked Arizona team. Their close victories were over a ranked USC team and against Arizona State in Tempe.
The Stanford rankings are especially baffling when compared to Wisconsin. The Badgers also had a narrow win over ASU (though that game was in Madison). They also squeaked out a victory over the ranked Iowa team. They have had a few blowout wins over mediocre teams. They also had a nice victory over a ranked Ohio State, and a loss to a one-loss Michigan State. The top of the resume seems fairly comparable to Stanford's. At the bottom, however, you have 1-win San Jose State, and 2 win UNLV, Minnesota, and FCS Austin Peay. Stanford has 2 win Washington State and Wake Forest, as well as 6-4 FCS Sacramento State at the bottom. The computers seem to have things right. You have to wonder why the pollsters love Wisconsin so much.
Ohio State also gets the Wisconsin treatment, with a human ranking much higher than the computer ranking. In this case the name is the big factor. After all, the are Ohio State.
The 'name recognition' of Ohio State may also be what gives Nebraska the lower computer ranking. That, and the fact that Texas has shown itself to be really, really bad. Nebraska seems to be pulling the anti-Cal, putting up its worst performances at home.
Team Harris Coaches Comp. SOS
1. Oregon (1) 1st 1st 2nd T-87th
2. Auburn (2) 2nd 2nd 1st 12th
3. TCU (3) 4th 4th T-3rd 55th
4. Boise St. (4) 3rd 3rd T-6th T-87th
5. LSU (5) 6th 6th T-3rd T-8th
6. Stanford (6) 8th 8th 5th T-65th
7. Wisconsin (7) 5th 5th 12th 75th
8. Nebraska (8) 9th 9th 8th T-57th
9. Ohio State (9) 7th 7th 13th T-70th
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Compass
Compass is a meandering story about a lot of people that have had something to do with the compass. Brits get the most attention here, with quality engineers as well as the politically connected getting their space. A long time ago, compasses were simple needles in water. Then things "advanced" to card-based compasses, only to come back to the floating needles. (I had not realized how inaccurate compasses could be - and that the variation tends to differ greatly based on location. )
The book seems to spend a lot of time on topics that had abundant information, with plenty of random attempts at wit and political bits. There is some interesting material in here, though it could use a good deal of editing to get down to a coherent book.
Great Train Robbery
This is the historical account of a Victorian-era heist of gold from a moving train. Most of the novel concerns the planning involved in carrying out the robbery. The actual robbery happens near the end (and is appropriately only a small part of the whole operation.) The final bit details the public reaction, along with the capture and escape of the robbers. (The final destination of gold and thieves is not known.)
Though based on true events, it is told in a highly engaging manner similar to Crichton's other thrillers. Instead of scientific details, we get details of mid 19th-century life and criminal activity. The criminals are portrayed sympathetically as smart, highly creative individuals engaged in a complicated plot.
The actual robbery required a number of preparatory actions: to open the safes on the train, the keys needed to be obtained. This required social activity to locate the keys, and even a jailbreak to get someone with the proper skills needed to help obtain and duplicate the keys. There were so many ways that the plot could have failed, it is a wonder that it totally succeeded.
Boise State - TCU rematch?
TCU beat Boise in the Poinsettia Bowl two years ago
Boise beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl last year
Next year, they will be in the same conference, and have a chance to play each other during the regular season.
For this year, it would only make sense to have them play in the BCS championship game this year.
How far-fetched is it?
Not likely at the present, but still possible.
Oregon looks like the best team around now. They annihilated some mediocre teams in non-conference play. Then they continued on steamrolling some really good teams during conference play. However, they play in the PAC-10. It seems every year, the "great one" suffers some inscrutable loss.
Cal could be the trap. Cal has blown away opponents at home, but been destroyed on the road. Unfortunately, Oregon makes the trip to Berkeley. Fortunately for the Ducks, Cal may have "ended" its curse by barely squeaking by Washington State on the road.
Arizona is in Eugene on a Friday night after a week's rest. Seems like a sure-fire Duck win. But that could be just the cockiness that lets them fall in an unexplained loss. Arizona is also coming in after a week off, and is a ranked program. Oregon will be paying attention.
Oregon State is the final chance for failure. The Beavers have been struggling this year. However, they are another picture of inconsistent. During the non-conference schedule they lost to two top-5 outfits, and beat a decent Big East team. That all seemed fairly normal. However, in conference play, they've beat the 3rd, 5th, and 6th(Tied) schools. Then lost to the two other schools tied for 6th. It wouldn't be too surprising to see them beat Oregon.
As for Auburn, they get the benefit of the doubt by playing in the SEC. They have won some close games over some good teams. The game against Georgia doesn't seem too difficult. The rivalry game against Alabama, however, could be very dangerous. Then the SEC championship game, possibly against a streaking Florida could be another shot for a loss. However, the best shot may be the Newton affair. If he gets declared ineligible, the wins get vacated and Auburn is out of the picture.
Would a one-loss team squeak in? LSU is loved by the computers. However, the squeaker wins make them hard to justify. (They should have had a loss to Tennessee...) The games against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi wont do much to help the computer rankings, while Arkansas could be a trap game. They also wont have the bump of the SEC championship game (unless Auburn loses its next two or gets disqualifies.)
Nebraska has Kansas and Colorado coming up which will hurt the computer rankings. The mediocre schedule and the loss to Texas should keep them out. The Big-12 championship game may help, but the quality of opponent would diminish the benefit. (Texas is out. Oklahoma would have two loses. Oklahoma State has only one loss, but doesn't have the street cred of the big boys.) A one-loss Oklahoma State would end with victories over Oklahoma and Nebraska. However, they would also be hard to justify over a no-loss Boise or TCU.
In the Big-10, Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa-Ohio State winner could each end with one loss. However, they end the season on a whimper and wouldn't see much of a move.
Stanford has looked good this season, though the loss to Oregon probably keeps them out. Utah's loss to TCU ended their BCS dreams.
Odds are probably about 50/50 that one non-AQ makes it to the championship, and not much lower that we see two. Maybe that is just what we need to end this ugly system. (But then, what will college football fans argue over?)
Boise beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl last year
Next year, they will be in the same conference, and have a chance to play each other during the regular season.
For this year, it would only make sense to have them play in the BCS championship game this year.
How far-fetched is it?
Not likely at the present, but still possible.
Oregon looks like the best team around now. They annihilated some mediocre teams in non-conference play. Then they continued on steamrolling some really good teams during conference play. However, they play in the PAC-10. It seems every year, the "great one" suffers some inscrutable loss.
Cal could be the trap. Cal has blown away opponents at home, but been destroyed on the road. Unfortunately, Oregon makes the trip to Berkeley. Fortunately for the Ducks, Cal may have "ended" its curse by barely squeaking by Washington State on the road.
Arizona is in Eugene on a Friday night after a week's rest. Seems like a sure-fire Duck win. But that could be just the cockiness that lets them fall in an unexplained loss. Arizona is also coming in after a week off, and is a ranked program. Oregon will be paying attention.
Oregon State is the final chance for failure. The Beavers have been struggling this year. However, they are another picture of inconsistent. During the non-conference schedule they lost to two top-5 outfits, and beat a decent Big East team. That all seemed fairly normal. However, in conference play, they've beat the 3rd, 5th, and 6th(Tied) schools. Then lost to the two other schools tied for 6th. It wouldn't be too surprising to see them beat Oregon.
As for Auburn, they get the benefit of the doubt by playing in the SEC. They have won some close games over some good teams. The game against Georgia doesn't seem too difficult. The rivalry game against Alabama, however, could be very dangerous. Then the SEC championship game, possibly against a streaking Florida could be another shot for a loss. However, the best shot may be the Newton affair. If he gets declared ineligible, the wins get vacated and Auburn is out of the picture.
Would a one-loss team squeak in? LSU is loved by the computers. However, the squeaker wins make them hard to justify. (They should have had a loss to Tennessee...) The games against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi wont do much to help the computer rankings, while Arkansas could be a trap game. They also wont have the bump of the SEC championship game (unless Auburn loses its next two or gets disqualifies.)
Nebraska has Kansas and Colorado coming up which will hurt the computer rankings. The mediocre schedule and the loss to Texas should keep them out. The Big-12 championship game may help, but the quality of opponent would diminish the benefit. (Texas is out. Oklahoma would have two loses. Oklahoma State has only one loss, but doesn't have the street cred of the big boys.) A one-loss Oklahoma State would end with victories over Oklahoma and Nebraska. However, they would also be hard to justify over a no-loss Boise or TCU.
In the Big-10, Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa-Ohio State winner could each end with one loss. However, they end the season on a whimper and wouldn't see much of a move.
Stanford has looked good this season, though the loss to Oregon probably keeps them out. Utah's loss to TCU ended their BCS dreams.
Odds are probably about 50/50 that one non-AQ makes it to the championship, and not much lower that we see two. Maybe that is just what we need to end this ugly system. (But then, what will college football fans argue over?)
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Ubik
Ubik takes place in a very futuristic 1992, where everything from doors to appliances demand coins to perform their action. The principle character are employees of a "prudence" organization that have the ability to counteract psychic powers. The owner, Glen Runciter, communicates with his wife who resides in "half life", a post-death state that allows the dead to still communicate with the living. (However, communications gradually cause the half-life to fade.)
One day a new recruit is brought in that has a special "anti-precog" capability that allows her to go to "change" the past. She along with some of Runciter's best employees go on a mission to Luna which ends up being a trap. They find their world mysteriously regressing backwards. They also find strange communications from their boss showing up in odd places. They blame the new girl for this problems. However, they eventually discover it is another half-lifer that is "eating them". Luckily, some half-lifers have come up with a counter-measure, Ubik.
Like Dick's Flow My Tears the Policman Said, Ubik has an odd approach to "personalized" time travel. In Ubik, it initially appears somebody is purposely regressing people in the past until they whither away. However, it is later revealed that almost the entire world was created in somebody's mind, and that time period just happened to be a convenient one for them to be in.
The novel continues to build up interesting twists on existence itself, and eventually ends with a quasi-biblical quote. The "half-life" world has strong forces of good and evil that are trying to steer people to their side. They give messages and hints of the best course of action, and even occasionally try to assist. However, the end result is dependent on the will and actions of the half-lifers themselves. They eventually gain the ability to distinguish the good from the bad, and use that to be able to continue their existence. (and meanwhile, they still continue their limited ability to communicate with the "real" living.)
Ubik also provides strong contrast between an overly commercial world of the future with the "half-life" world. Each have their own challenges, and at times, people are unsure where they belong.
Altogether, it is a good science fiction book that explores many different aspects of life of the 60s when it was written as well as humanity in general.
Judy Moody Goes to College
Judy Moody's third grade teacher is in Italy and she has a substitute she doesn't like. She zones out in math, so her parents hire a tutor. This tutor is a student at the local college, and Judy Moody is thrilled to be "going to college". She gets a great enthusiasm for math and enjoys the college "scene". She decides she wants to dress and talk like her tutor. She even attends an art class, and has her picture displayed at an art show at the University.
The book is a "sassy kids book", that seems to "try" to hard to be that way. College students are portrayed as valleywag peaceniks that go to a school that more closely resembles 60s Berkeley than any school today. It makes for some third grade humor but comes out with a message that poor performance will be rewarded.
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
I was interested in this book after I saw it referenced in a couple of other books I read. Perhaps it would have been better to leave it that way. The author has some good ideas; however, his delivery could use a lot of work. I found myself dozing off every time I picked up the book. The author tends to be extremely wordy, and goes out of his way to make sure he doesn't miss any minute detail. (There is even a long postscript, where he apologizes and corrects some of the details he did miss.)
The core thesis is that scientific revolutions are generally evolutionary changes to an existing paradigm. "Normal" science involves solving small problems in a narrowly defined scientific paradigm. Occasionally questions arise within the paradigm. These can eventually lead to challenges to aspects of the existing paradigm. New solutions may "improve" on it until a revolution produces a new paradigm. Old practitioners are often reluctant to adapt, but eventually they do.
Scientists working within a paradigm tend to look with the eyes of the existing system. They tend to color their results by what they expect to see. (This observational bias is present in all aspects of life and has been elucidated with a number of different studies.) A new paradigm can appear very revolutionary because it unleashes many observations that would not have been noted (or even "observed") in the prior paradigm.
When textbooks are written, the historical evolution of science is given fairly short treatment, thus making science appear to be a more logical progression than it actually is. (And conversely making the revolutionary events appear more significant than they really are.)
The arguments in this book are very convincing. However, you have to wonder if they are colored by the scientific paradigm in which they were written.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Baking pitas and apple cake
We baked an "Apple Hill Cake" from the Los Altos Stake cookbook for Sunday yummy today. It was ok. We probably overcooked it a little. (A real rarity in our oven.) The frosting also seemed to be a little lacking in sugar (1 cup powdered sugar to 8 oz cream cheese + butter and lemon juice.) However, I didn't mind the 'extra-cheesy' version of the frosting.
The cake itself was 4 cups apples, along with some sugar, flour, eggs and oil and a lot of spices. I think I like butter better in cakes. Nuts would also have been helpful. There was a nice apple coffeecake recipe we tried before.
However, it was nice to use up some of our abundant apple crop. Now we are throwing away all sorts of apples with even the slightest blemish. First we tried to save them, give them away or make applesauce, but now they have caught up with us. Just wait. In a few months, we'll be buying apples. D'oh! Too bad the pomegranate crop looks to be coming in at three fruits this year.
For dinner, I also whipped up some hummus (and finished off the tahini in the process.) I did get to use some fresh ranpor lime and lemon juice. (And managed to break the lock that locks the food processor on to the blender base. Maybe its time we got a new food processor/blender.)
After cutting up some carrots and celery, I discovered we were out of other good vegetables to serve with the hummus. It sounded like a good time to try pita bread again.
I used the king author recipe. Just flour, yeast, salt, sugar and oil. Its one of the easier breads to make. Just kneed it together, let it rise for an hour, then roll it out. After sitting for a few minutes, it goes in a really hot oven for 5 minutes and - presto - pita.
The recipe actually called for 5 minutes plus 2 minutes, but they seemed to be done after five. Our oven running hot for two recipes in a row? This is unheard of. Perhaps its the hot day causing it to act that way.
I actually used white flour in the pita because, well, its yummy. I prefer cakes and cookies with whole wheat, but pita just seems to need the white stuff to have the yummy fluffy texture.
The kids ended up making pita faces using hummus to stick the veggies on the pita. Yummy!
The cake itself was 4 cups apples, along with some sugar, flour, eggs and oil and a lot of spices. I think I like butter better in cakes. Nuts would also have been helpful. There was a nice apple coffeecake recipe we tried before.
However, it was nice to use up some of our abundant apple crop. Now we are throwing away all sorts of apples with even the slightest blemish. First we tried to save them, give them away or make applesauce, but now they have caught up with us. Just wait. In a few months, we'll be buying apples. D'oh! Too bad the pomegranate crop looks to be coming in at three fruits this year.
For dinner, I also whipped up some hummus (and finished off the tahini in the process.) I did get to use some fresh ranpor lime and lemon juice. (And managed to break the lock that locks the food processor on to the blender base. Maybe its time we got a new food processor/blender.)
After cutting up some carrots and celery, I discovered we were out of other good vegetables to serve with the hummus. It sounded like a good time to try pita bread again.
I used the king author recipe. Just flour, yeast, salt, sugar and oil. Its one of the easier breads to make. Just kneed it together, let it rise for an hour, then roll it out. After sitting for a few minutes, it goes in a really hot oven for 5 minutes and - presto - pita.
The recipe actually called for 5 minutes plus 2 minutes, but they seemed to be done after five. Our oven running hot for two recipes in a row? This is unheard of. Perhaps its the hot day causing it to act that way.
I actually used white flour in the pita because, well, its yummy. I prefer cakes and cookies with whole wheat, but pita just seems to need the white stuff to have the yummy fluffy texture.
The kids ended up making pita faces using hummus to stick the veggies on the pita. Yummy!
Mormon Stories
Card's Mormon Stories provide a diversity of "religious" themes. Two of the stories are strongly rooted in contemporary Mormon culture and are cutting, inspirational views on moral themes. The other two are more general in nature, and are "religious" only in that they use Christian characters.
The "Mormon" Stories
Christmas and Helaman's House
The humble entrepreneur builds a huge house in a ritzy neighborhood. However, he feels somewhat empty. On Christmas Eve, one of her daughters invites over a young man who has recently returned from a mission to Colombia. This man eventually runs out because he can't stand the display of such wealth. Helaman then realizes that he can't stand it either, and with his family, decide to dedicate the house to serving the poor.
It is a nice uplifting story, but it did leave me wanting to read more about how this "dedication to the poor" turned out.
Worthy to Be One Of Us
Two empty-nesters do not remain empty for long as his father dies, resulting in his mother moving in with them. Then, at Thanksgiving, their son announces they have sold their home in anticipation of a March move, and plan on moving (with two kids and pregnant wife). The grandchildren are wild and crazy, and the daughter in law comes from barely-literate "white-trash" stock (while they are the "university professor" types. The wife discovers that the daughter-in-law and mother-in-law both feel inadequate because they feel their husbands have married beneath their social status. In the end, however, they realize that they both provide the "spiritual mooring" for their families, and can point to the strength of their children as a major accomplishment in their life.
This is another nice story showing that we should look at the positive in others, rather than worry about superficial "class" attributes.
The More General Stories
Neighbors
Two seniors were discussing another woman from their town. This woman was always praising her oldest child. However, he recently was executed due to his political involvement. They then discuss some of the unsavory events in his life and how he could have fit in if he didn't seem to be seeking trouble all the time.
Though it is never explicitly stated, it becomes obvious that this is the story of Christ in his home town. This is a nice quick story that cuts at the problems of gossip and the fact that even the most lauded characters can be portrayed in a negative light.
God Plays Fair Once Too Often
God and Lucifer run in to each other at a party and discuss a "bet" which they made. Lucifer gets to destroy the world if he can convince everyone that God's social communal sharing is evil, while rampant capitalism is good. As part of the deal, God has to shut off his omniscience for 150 years. Lucifer manages to get the Stalinism installed in this world under the name of communism. This system, while it takes the name of communism is actually an atheistic monopolistic system with most of the evils of capitalism and few of the benefits. After this system falls, capitalism is seen as the true force that can benefit the earth.
This story is primarily a political critique, positing that we must not overlook the deficiencies of capitalism. Just because the Stalinists failed so miserably in their pseudo-communism does not mean that all communist principles are bad (and capitalistic ones good.) An alternate view could be that the atheistic nature of the government was its true problem.
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
Oh, Stanford
I should have known. Once Stanford makes it to the top 10, they're destined to lose the next game. But, I still had my hopes up. Could they even challenge for the championship? But, no. They jumped up to a big lead over Oregon in the first half, and then...
They decided not to show up for the second half. Oh well. There is still a chance for a good season.
More baffling is what happened in the rankings. Oregon turned on the quack attack for a second half pounding of Stanford. Boise State pummeled lowly New Mexico State (Boise's backups outscore NMSU on their own.) From a schedule perspective, all of Boise's previous opponents also won. Ohio State struggled with mediocre Illinois. Alabama also managed an annihilation of Florida. So it seemed obvious, Alabama, Oregon and Boise were the top three. But no, for some reason, Ohio State stays second and Oregon passes Boise for third. Oh whatever. Polls are always annoying.
They decided not to show up for the second half. Oh well. There is still a chance for a good season.
More baffling is what happened in the rankings. Oregon turned on the quack attack for a second half pounding of Stanford. Boise State pummeled lowly New Mexico State (Boise's backups outscore NMSU on their own.) From a schedule perspective, all of Boise's previous opponents also won. Ohio State struggled with mediocre Illinois. Alabama also managed an annihilation of Florida. So it seemed obvious, Alabama, Oregon and Boise were the top three. But no, for some reason, Ohio State stays second and Oregon passes Boise for third. Oh whatever. Polls are always annoying.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Food Rules
I like Michael Pollan's books. However, I can't seem to tell them apart - except for this one. This is a "sound bite" version of his popular Defense of Food book. He narrows food choices down to a set of around 60 short "rules", some with a couple additional paragraphs, others with nothing more than the rule.
They all describe general approaches to "natural" healthy eating. Some rules include "only eat deserts you make yourself", "don't buy food you see advertised on TV", "don't buy food that makes health claims" or "don't eat something that was served through a car window." The main message is similar to the "real" book: go back to natural food that can be "enjoyed", rather than processed food that is consumed. The message is good. The presentation is extremely brief. I guess its a good way to cash in on a popular book that happens to gel with the cultural zeitgeist.
Yazoo Queen
In the afterward, Card acknowledges that Yazoo Queen is "chapter 0" of Crystal City. He wasn't kidding. When I first read Crystal City, it seemed as if I'd some how missed a chapter with some earlier events. Well, here they are.
In this story, Alvin and Arthur Stewart are taking a riverboat down the Mississippi to Nueva Barcelona (New Orleans). On the boat, they run in to Jim Bowie (who is portrayed as an amiable thug.) They catch a poorly-built raft drifting out in the river and go to rescue it. The raft is piloted by Abraham Lincoln (portrayed as an honest buffoon that everyone just can't help to like.) After they get him back and tie the raft to the riverboat, a group of slaves use the raft to sneak off to their freedom.
This story is a fun read that has fun weaving historical figures and places in to a fantasy narrative. However, it is best read in the sequence of Alvin Maker books (before Crystal City).
Mockingjay
The Hunger Games Recipe: Take a bit of Survivor (and reality in general), through in the original Star Wars trilogy add a touch of Lord of the Flies and Inspector Gadget. The overall plot is a close star wars clone. The "rebels" fight the empire (capital), they seem to get a victory in the first book. In the second the capital fights back and seems to be getting even stronger. Finally, the big fight comes in the third where, against all odds, the rebels manage to win.
Like the previous books, Mockingjay is a great page-turner that I had to plow through in one night. And like the others, I felt unsatisfied at the end.
Here she seems to try just a little too hard. She wasn't sure how to resolve the two-guys thing. So, she brings back a totally brainwashed Peeta and a Gale who gets overly bloodthirsty. Peeta works hard to overcome his brainwashing while Gale concocts massive killing machines (one of which happens to kill Katniss's sister.) Is there any doubt which boy Katniss will end up with?
And then there is the rebel leader, who gets portrayed more and more like a power-hungry villain. You could see what Katniss would do to her long before it happened.
The author was willing to suddenly kill of characters after she built up a lot of sympathy for them. I guess that makes it real. But, it also seems somewhat unsatisfying. She also seems to burn out on the narrative after a parachute explosion that injures Katniss. (Again, she's in the hospital. And again we miss a lot of narrative.) The explosion happens to kill her younger sister. The quest to save her sister was the reason she entered the games in the first place. I guess this shows that it was all for naught. Or perhaps her sister would have become the tool for the revolution instead - and more likely kept her head on.
The Hunger Games series ends as a jumbled escapist mess. It had some potential to make some great observations, but got sidetracked with some bad characters and gruesome action. Hollywood in book form.
Monday, October 04, 2010
Catching Fire
While Hunger Games could stand alone, Catching Fire is the second book in a trilogy. It relies heavily on events of the first book and leaves things in a huge mess at the end. Suddenly, the narrator realizes she has inadvertently helped to launch a revolution. She tries to do everything in her power to make things better. Alas, things just get worse.
The capital has a solution - start a hunger games just for previous champions. That will let these problem people exterminate themselves. Alas, for the capital, it just seems to make matters worse.
The storytelling here is even better than in the first book. The characters are also richer. We get a stronger impression that the capital people are the rich "playboys" and the enemies of society. Unfortunately, Katniss is still downright annoying. In some ways it is not her fault. She is being used by the revolutionaries to help advance their plot. (Though she is totally clueless.) Oh, and she has two guys that love her, though she simply uses them when it is to her advantage. It all makes for another escapist book that you can quickly read through.
The Hunger Games
The Hunger Games is set in a post-apocalyptic world consisting of a capital city and thirteen distracts. About 75 years before, there had been a big rebellion and the thirteenth district had been annihilated. The remaining districts were put in their place of servitude to the capital city. To help the districts remember their "place", they have an annual event called the "Hunger Games". In the event, a boy and a girl from each district (chosen at random) are brought together in a fight to the death. The winner is lauded, with their entire district receiving some of the spoils. The losers are, well, dead.
The world is a combination of reality TV and class-stratification gone totally amok. However, the book doesn't spend much time looking in to what would be an interesting civilization. Instead, the focus is on the narrator, Katniss.As the narrative comes to the drawing for the female participant from her district, it seems certain that she will be called. However, she isn't. Instead, her younger sister is called. However, Katniss volunteers to take her place. We see how the initial part of the games turns to hero worship. She is assigned a stylist and a prep crew who help make her up for the games. She dines like a queen. Everything seems like a dream life - well, except for the part that you will likely be dead soon.
The male participant from her district has had a crush on her for years. (She discovers this on the live television announcement.) Eventually, they both go through the games, with some of their allies being killed, while they do their bit of killing themselves. The "gamemakers" make a rule change allowing a district 'couple' to win together. They then revoke it when they are the only ones left. They attempt to get around this by attempting a double suicide with the poison berries. The gamemakers don't want this, and quickly declare them both winners.
The Hunger Games seems to end clearly, with few open threads demanding a sequel. (Their 'defiance' and willingness to buck the tradition seems to be one route.)
The storytelling is top notch, making this book one that is difficult to put down. However, the story seems lacking. The characters are also ho-hum. The narrator, Katniss, could use a few good slaps to get her to stop being such a jerk. Her fellow district competitor evokes much more sympathy (as do other "enemies", such as "Fox Face") It seems like it was made for a summer tentpole movie - large cast of beautiful teens with the romance to draw in the girls, violence and techno-gadgetry to draw in the adults. Unfortunately, like most of the big summer movies, it entertains you while you are there and that's about it.
Saturday, October 02, 2010
The Grinning Man
The Grinning Man is set in the Alvin Maker universe of fantasy frontier America. In this world, supernatural "knacks" are common and the politics are a little different than what we learned in history.
In this story, Alvin Maker and his sidekick Arthur Stewart run in to Davey Crocket "grinning" down a bear. Crocket does not take too kindly to them invading his turf. However, Alvin uses his "maker" skills to bend his gun and chase him away. They later visit a town where they find themselves unwelcome due to word Crocket was spreading. Eventually a miller takes them in. However, they find he is cheating his customers. Alvin and Arthur begin to set things right as Davey returns now essentially as a servant to the bear. (Alvin had used his "making" skill to help cause that outcome.) Eventually the miller runs off as his corrupt ways were found the town is happy and the bear gets elected to congress (with Davey as his interpreter.)
The story is fairly light and a fun diversion in the Alvin Maker universe. It could probably stand alone outside, but many of the inside jokes would be missed. The ending (with the bear as an elected official) is a little over the top. All told, it makes a nice addition to one of Card's best series.
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