Thursday, November 11, 2010

Boise State - TCU rematch?

TCU beat Boise in the Poinsettia Bowl two years ago
Boise beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl last year
Next year, they will be in the same conference, and have a chance to play each other during the regular season.
For this year, it would only make sense to have them play in the BCS championship game this year.
How far-fetched is it?
Not likely at the present, but still possible.
Oregon looks like the best team around now. They annihilated some mediocre teams in non-conference play. Then they continued on steamrolling some really good teams during conference play. However, they play in the PAC-10. It seems every year, the "great one" suffers some inscrutable loss.

Cal could be the trap. Cal has blown away opponents at home, but been destroyed on the road. Unfortunately, Oregon makes the trip to Berkeley. Fortunately for the Ducks, Cal may have "ended" its curse by barely squeaking by Washington State on the road.

Arizona is in Eugene on a Friday night after a week's rest. Seems like a sure-fire Duck win. But that could be just the cockiness that lets them fall in an unexplained loss. Arizona is also coming in after a week off, and is a ranked program. Oregon will be paying attention.

Oregon State is the final chance for failure. The Beavers have been struggling this year. However, they are another picture of inconsistent. During the non-conference schedule they lost to two top-5 outfits, and beat a decent Big East team. That all seemed fairly normal. However, in conference play, they've beat the 3rd, 5th, and 6th(Tied) schools. Then lost to the two other schools tied for 6th. It wouldn't be too surprising to see them beat Oregon.

As for Auburn, they get the benefit of the doubt by playing in the SEC. They have won some close games over some good teams. The game against Georgia doesn't seem too difficult. The rivalry game against Alabama, however, could be very dangerous. Then the SEC championship game, possibly against a streaking Florida could be another shot for a loss. However, the best shot may be the Newton affair. If he gets declared ineligible, the wins get vacated and Auburn is out of the picture.

Would a one-loss team squeak in? LSU is loved by the computers. However, the squeaker wins make them hard to justify. (They should have had a loss to Tennessee...) The games against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi wont do much to help the computer rankings, while Arkansas could be a trap game. They also wont have the bump of the SEC championship game (unless Auburn loses its next two or gets disqualifies.)

Nebraska has Kansas and Colorado coming up which will hurt the computer rankings. The mediocre schedule and the loss to Texas should keep them out. The Big-12 championship game may help, but the quality of opponent would diminish the benefit. (Texas is out. Oklahoma would have two loses. Oklahoma State has only one loss, but doesn't have the street cred of the big boys.) A one-loss Oklahoma State would end with victories over Oklahoma and Nebraska. However, they would also be hard to justify over a no-loss Boise or TCU.

In the Big-10, Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa-Ohio State winner could each end with one loss. However, they end the season on a whimper and wouldn't see much of a move.

Stanford has looked good this season, though the loss to Oregon probably keeps them out. Utah's loss to TCU ended their BCS dreams.

Odds are probably about 50/50 that one non-AQ makes it to the championship, and not much lower that we see two. Maybe that is just what we need to end this ugly system. (But then, what will college football fans argue over?)

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