Sunday, September 22, 2024

The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better

The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better by Tyler Cowen

America has experienced a couple centuries of great economic growth. This was enabled by picking the "low hanging fruit" of land, immigrants and technology. However, this has slowed significantly in the past few decades. Politicians try to boost the economy via tax cuts or spending increases. With either approach, the party enjoys touting the benefits, but is reluctant to actually pick up the tab. 

Today, the government spending as a portion of the economy is much higher than it has been in the past. The government does provide more. However, government expenditures tend to decrease in value. (The expenditures with a greatest value are quickly adopted. Additional expenditures tend to be decrease in efficiency and economic value.) The decreasing marginal value of government results in less overall economic benefit.

The private sector is not necessarily better. Much of the "growth" in the economy has been in finance. While there is some financial activity the provides general economic benefit, much of the modern innovation has just served to enrich the practitioners. Complex financial products were behind the great recession of the early 2000s.

What should we do? The author proposes attaching greater value to scientists. They provide much of the research that helps fuel the economy. They have a respectable place in society, but are not deemed as one of the top professions. They need to have a more important role to help economy regain its mojo. 

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