Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure

Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure by Vaclav Smil

There was an article in the newspaper today about young people suing the government over failure to act to stop global warming. How dare the government subsidize fossil fuels when they know of the climatic impacts. Alas, things are not so black and white. Many attempts to ameliorate harm have lead to harm in other areas. Cars have resulted in millions of deaths. They provide some mobility benefits, but if we applied the same standard we use for medicine, we would not accept the significant costs.

Leaded gasoline was introduced as a way to improve efficiency and reduce emissions. Short term studies showed minimum negative impacts. Alas, the negative impacts of lead take some time to manifest themselves. The reduced emissions are shown immediately. Similarly, CFCs seemed like a great solution to the need of a fluid for refrigeration. Alas, they cause significant problems with the ozone layer. Other substitutes don't have the same ozone problems, but they are significant greenhouse gasses. There are different trade offs with all the refrigerants. Perhaps the best solution is to just not run air conditioners.

DDT seemed like a miracle compound that could eliminate mosquitos with minimal negative impact. Alas, it ended up harming many animals. And, because it was used excessively, mosquitos had plenty of chances to develop resistance.

On the other side, many inventions are "almost there". Nuclear Fusion, air ships, "vacuum travel" and supersonic airplanes all seem like they are just around the corner. There has been plenty of hype, but the inventions have not come to fruition. 

There are also plenty of seemingly nonsense inventions such as a "rounded corner screen" or a dog nose painter.

People are eager to invent. There are almost always positives and negatives to the inventions. It can be difficult to draw conclusions immediately.