Saturday, December 09, 2023

Will College Football become a southern regional sport?

The College Football playoff committee had to include Alabama because they were in the all-mighty SEC. They used some logic that Florida State had not been as great of a team since their quarterback was injured. Alabama was apparently a great team that has been greatly improved over the season. We are supposed to disregard the need for last-minute heroics to defeat a mediocre Auburn team (that had been clobbered by New Mexico State the pervious week. Meanwhile, Florida State (with their backup quarterback) more soundly beat their rival Florida. Florida was also having a ho-hum year, but they were playing their rival for bowl eligibility. In the conference championship game, they were able to dispatch of their opponent without problem. Louisville may not be Georgia, but they were respectable team.

But Alabama had to go in. They will probably go on to win the championship because they are Alabama. Then the SEC will say "told you so." But if Florida State or Liberty when their bowl games they could easily proclaim themselves the champion also. After all, they will be undefeated with a path to show they beat a team that beat a team that got them over the champion. This will be similar to past teams from Utah or Boise that finished undefeated, but never played for a championship. Or even a Stanford team with a loss that could have won the championship if they had a chance.

Alas, the money is in the deep south. The powers that be had trouble excluding undefeated Washington or Michigan, so Florida State had to fall. After all, this could help hasten the fall of another major conference. This will let the TV powers focus their efforts on just a few conferences.

Liberty's path: They beat Connecticut which beat Rice which eventually gets to a win over Texas and thus Alabama.
Liberty
Connecticut
Rice
Houston
West Virginia 
UCF
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Texas
Alabama
Georgia

As for Florida State, they beat Duke which beat Connecticut which continues on the same path as Liberty. Another fun way would be to include the two Miamis:

Florida State
Miami FL
Miami oh
Ohio
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Texas
Alabama

If Florida State won, they would also have beaten Georgia. Interesting, that path takes them through the same number of teams:

Florida State
Georgia
Missouri
Kansas State 
Texas tech
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Alabama

Liberty, however, would get a shorter path by beating Oregon:

Liberty
Oregon
Texas tech 
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Alabama

If Michigan wins out, then the champion would be pretty clear. They would have pretty quick paths over most of the remainder of the top 25. (If Liberty and Florida State lose their bowl games, it would be all the top 25.) Washington would look almost the same.

Here is the top 25 list. This would assume the seeds played out and Michigan beat Alabama in semifinal and Washington in the championship. A single + means they beat a team. a + followed by another team means they beat a team that beat the team. (Thus from this Michigan would have beat Washington. For Texas, Michigan would have beat Washington who beat Texas.) The only exceptions are Liberty and Florida State. Michigan would only have a path if those teams lose their bowl games. There may also be some other paths that become shorter after bowls, but these only include those with the playoff and two undefeated teams.

Michigan (13-0)
Washington (13-0) +
Texas (12-1) +washington
Alabama (12-1) +
Florida State (13-0) [+Alabama +Georgia ] (If Georgia wins bowl)
Georgia (12-1) +alabama
Ohio State (12-1) +
Oregon (11-2) +washington
Missouri (10-2) +Alabama +LSU
Penn State (10-2) +
Ole Miss (10-2) +alabama
Oklahoma (10-2) +Washington +Texas +Oklahoma state
LSU (9-3) +alabama
Arizona (9-3) +washington
Louisville (10-3) +Ohio state +Notre Dame +pitt
Notre Dame (9-3) +Ohio state
Iowa (10-3) +
NC State (9-3) +Ohio state +Notre dame
Oregon State (8-4) +washington
Oklahoma State (9-4) +Washington +texas
Tennessee (8-4) +alabama
Clemson (8-4) (+Ohio state +Notre Dame +NC State )
Liberty (13-0) [+Washington +Oregon ] (if Oregon wins bowl)
SMU (11-2).  (+Washington +Texas +TCU)
Kansas State (8-4) +Washington +Texas 

If Washington won, their path would be similar. 

If Washington or Michigan win and both Liberty and Florida State lose, it would be relatively straightforward to declare the lone undefeated team the champion.

If Washington or Michigan won and Florida State won, but Liberty lost, Florida State would not have a path over Oregon (and possibly not over Ohio State), so that would give the playoff champ a small advantage. (But Florida State could still stake a claim.)

If Liberty won, they would have a path over Oregon (but maybe not Ohio State)

If Alabama or Texas win, then it gets interesting. Liberty or Florida State with a win could claim a transitive victory and no defeats. So is the weirdness of college football. 

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