Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes

Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes by Richard A. Clarke and R.P. Eddy

After a catastrophe, it is almost always possible to find the  ignored "Cassandra" that warned of the impending disaster. Alas, we can also find many that warned of imminent disasters that never have occurred. How do we find the true Cassandra's while not being fixated on the fakes. This book provides some analysis in identifying the signs of "valid warnings". It then spends covers a bunch of potential catastrophes. 

Sometimes, there may be valid concerns, but they are just not worth the effort. The earth will likely crash into the sun. However, this won't occur until billions of years from now. A meteor like the one that killed the dinosaurs is more likely, but still rare. However, one that causes significant damage is more likely. Once a couple Hollywood movies were made about it, there has been greater attention played to the possibility. New work has been able to better predict impacts. Responding would take more work.

Catastrophes can also be identified via extrapolation. The Iran's uranium enrichment operations were damaged by hacking devices. Russia was able to turn off Ukraine's power.  Damage has occurred at power plants due to bad settings and configuration. Combine these and a potential hacker could cause widescale physical damage via hacking Internet of Things devices. These devices need to be better secured. Things are improving, but there is still a long way to go, especially with medical devices.

How do we identify Cassandra's? Often they are people with significant expertise in the field, but without a significant social platform. There views may challenge common views and pose some difficulty. Engineers had alerted to dangers of the space shuttle's o-ring. However, there was pressure to launch at the time after previous delays. Cultural problems were identified as root cause.

There are many technological, political and natural catastrophes that could occur. Effectively prioritize efforts to prevent them is an ongoing challenge.