The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility

Your name can tell a lot about you and your economic prospects. Theoretically, in an egalitarian society, all families would revert to the mean. Those that were rich would have offspring that were somewhat advantaged, but over the generations they would be similar to others. Similarly, the poor would have the opportunity through education to increase their stock. However, in looking at surnames and associated markers of prosperity, there is an unexpected stickiness of prosperity.

Many of the tests done involved correlating names with indicators of "success". This was somewhat limited by the available sources. In Britain, the authors looked at Members of Parliament, students at Cambridge and Oxford, and probate records. The focus was primarily on the more rare surnames. It was found that surnames that were overrepresented by wealth markers tended to stay over-represented. Their reversion to mean was slower than would be statistically expected. This was found even when large investments were made in education. Similar results held in almost all other countries, even those that were supposedly very egalitarian. Sweden provides free education and subsidizes living expenses, yet the rich continue to hold their positions. Even after the cultural revolution in China, the elites came back. Similarly the descendents of samurai in Japan continued to show privilege long after the positions were abolished. These factors seemed to show something even beyond genetics or nurturing.

The authors did acknowledge there were some challenges to the methodology. Some people would change their names. (Though this relatively small occurrence would often reinforce the elite positions.) It can also be difficult to get accurate data, with many places recording things differently (and the same places have different data over time.) 

There were also some interesting results that appeared for certain groups. Those with European French surnames in the US tend to be underrepresented as doctors. (Perhaps because it was the poor that most often immigrated.) Jews are over-represented among the elites. This may have started as they had widespread literacy before others, yet it continued after the world caught up. In Ireland, there was a sorting out of Catholics and Protestants with people often sorting to their class group.

Analyzing groups as individuals is often subject to controversy in our world. It does provide some interesting insight into different values and changes among the people of the world.