Thursday, February 14, 2019

The Fifth Risk

Michael Lewis is not exactly a fan of the Trump administration. The Fifth Risk attacks the general incompetence of the Trump government. Trump threw away most of the planning that was done for transition to presidency. His people didn't even bother to visit the agencies they would be running until weeks after Trump won the presidencies. They also disregarded much of the hand over information that was prepared. Many of the people lacked the basic skills or competencies needed for their positions. It would be common for them to come in and only care about attempting to remove anyone that has an interest in Climate Change. Lewis' theorizes that Trump simply does not want to know what is going on in the government so that he can escape culpability for anything bad that happens. Since it is a democratic administration that is being replaced, he does tend to put a much more favorable spin on Democrats. They had been working hard to make the government more accessible and run better, only to have Trump come in with incompetence. Even the Bush administration was presented in a positive light. The Trump people, however, are often there just for their own personal gain, and had little clue as to what they were controlling.
The later part of the book focuses on weather prediction. While weather forecasting had previously been primarily guesswork, it has not become much more accurate. This is due to the large amounts of data that are collected as well as the many different models that can be run to produce the forecasts. The federal government sits on a vast treasure trove of data. Many private companies use this data in their commercial enterprises. Case in point is Accuweather, which uses National Weather Service Data as the primary input for its weather forecasting. The company does not want the government to make free forecasts easily available. It also fought against another comapny's bid to make the weather observation data more easily accessible. The boss of Accuweather was one of the people Trump nominated to help "run" the government.
The book ends with the story of a tornado that touched down in a rural town. Due in part to the Weather Service warning and key actions by the local emergency chief, most people survived. However, one widow lamented that the house destroyed both the barn and her house. She had hoped it wold just destroy the barn (due to the bad memories there.) Alas, the Trump administration's attempt to remove some of the "waste" in the government may have similar unintended consequences.

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