Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Waking Dragon

The Modern Scholar: Waking Dragon: The Emerging Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the World
The Modern Scholar series condenses each "course" in to a series of 14 lectures on 7 CDs. In this case, that was way too much space. He endlessly repeats himself, and could easily fit the lectures in half the space. (The first and last lectures both summarize the contents, and in addition to repeating ideas and contents, there are occasional "editing flaws" where an entire phrase is repeated.)

Getting away from the technical problems, the content is of an alarmist anti-China bent. China currently engages in massive intellectual property violations in its quest to rapidly industrialize. Hmmm... Seems a lot like what the United States did back in its day. Many of the other problems detailed can also be seen in the voyage that the current superpowers took to become superpowers. The catch is that with the current benefits of modern technology, China can do this much more efficiently.

He does do a good job of fairly outlining how China is able to maintain the low "China price". Some of the Chinese advantages (such as industrial clustering) do provide obvious legitimate advantages, while others (such as counterfeiting) are obvious cheating. A lot of the counterfeiting takes place in part because so much manufacturing takes place in China. (In some cases, it is as simple as running an extra shift at the factory.)

He dedicates a chapter to the drug trade. This seems to really be reaching. China's culpability is that it manufactures most of the 'precursor' chemicals used in the production of the drugs. (Sassafras oil?) He does fairly dedicate time to detailing how much of the drug problem in China was "forced" on them by the British opium trade, and later through CIA efforts to finance anti-communist regimes.

The lecture on space is one of the more interesting ones. China has taken up the mantel of leadership in the space race. With the space shuttle challenges, many companies turned to China to launch their satellites. China was kind enough to analyze and reverse engineer their satellites before launching them in to space. China also has designs on mining materials from asteroids, and even terraforming Mars for human habitation. There, China could use its CO2 belching factories to its advantage, creating the greenhouse that is needed to create a human-friendly planet.

His analysis shows that China saves 1-2% by skimping on environmental controls, while costing itself closer to 10%. Of course, the catch is the savings are in the lucrative manufacturing sector, while the costs are primarily borne by humans, which are, for all practical purposes, expendable.

China still has a huge a amount of people, with the large masses able to employ continued downward pressure on wages. The retiree time bomb will soon go off. But, hey, they just may take some counterfeit drugs that make them disappear sooner.

While the professor has a very negative few of China's rise, it could be looked at from other ways. China has been a great power for much of the world history. Perhaps the European domination was just a brief interlude as China resumes its place. The current reckless abandon may be replaced by a more ordered system once China ascends to domination. Or perhaps the west needs to shape up, curtailing the excesses in the regulatory and intellectual property regime. (Why do some people still collect royalties from "Happy Birthday"?) The big concern is corruption. If it stays rampant, it will be tough for China to continue to rise. If it can be controlled, then China could really assume the "innovation" leadership. After all, China is still heavily dependent on western 'innovation' and 'consumption' to finance its economic growth. If the west turned off is spigot, China would quickly suffer.

No comments:

Post a Comment