Sunday, December 06, 2009

Who should play in the BCS championship?

There are five undefeated teams, one one-loss team, and six two loss teams. Florida, the lone one-loss team, has only one 'impressive' victory - over 3 loss LSU, but was blown out by Alabama in the SEC championship game. With this many undefeated teams, it would also be difficult to justify calling a two-loss team a 'champion', so limiting the choice to the undefeated teams seems the logical choice.

One simple way of determining the best teams is to look at who they beat. In this7 way, I've grouped the opponents in to "great teams" (10+ wins), good teams (8+ wins) and winning teams (any teams with a winning record.) I rank the teams by the number of wins in each, giving 5 points for first, 4 for second and so forth. Then the teams with the best counts are the most deserving of the championship. If there is a tie, close games (wins by less than a touchdown) and IAA games are excluded.

By this criteria, Alabama comes out clearly on top. They have a victory over the lone one-loss team. They also have the most victories over winning teams. Somewhat surprisingly, Boise State comes in second. They have a respectable number of victories over winning teams, with no close calls. They also own the victory over the current top-ranked two-loss team (Oregon).

While simplistic (by for example, not including opponents strength of schedule) , this analysis does show Alabama as clearly deserving a spot in the championship game. The second spot, however, could fairly easily belong to any of the other undefeated teams, with Boise State actually appearing the most deserving.


10+ win teams:
1. Alabama: 1
1. Boise: 1
1. TCU: 1
0. Texas: 0
0. Cincinnati: 0

8+ win teams:
1. Texas: 5 (4)
2. Cincinnati 5 (3)
3. Alabama: 4
4. Boise: 3
5. TCU: 3 (2)

Winning teams:
1. Alabama: 10(7)
2. Cincinnati 7(4)
3. Boise: 6(5)
4. Texas: 6(4)
5. TCU: 6(3)

Alabama: 13
Boise: 10
Cincinnati: 8
TCU: 7
Texas: 7


Texas
9-3
9-4*
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5*
6-6
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
4-8
3-9

Boise
10-2
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-5x
5-7
4-8
4-8
3-10
2-10
1-11

TCU
10-2
9-3
8-5*
7-5
7-5*
7-4x
6-6
5-7
4-8
3-9
3-9
1-11

Cincinnati
9-3*
9-3*
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5*
4-8
4-8
3-9
2-9x
1-11

Alabama
12-1
9-3
9-3
8-4
7-5
7-5*
7-5*
7-5
7-5
6-5x
5-7
3-9
2-10

* - close game (win by less than one touchdown)
x - IAA team

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