Sunday, November 23, 2008

Boise State's long odds

Could Boise State still make a BCS bowl? Well, yes they still could. However, at the moment, they would have to be picked over USC and Ohio State for an at-large spot. USC is ranked a few spots higher and would be a really hard sell. If Oregon State loses to Oregon, then USC will take the Pac-10 spot. However, "pedigreed" Ohio State will likely still get it over Boise State. The only way to 'guarantee' a Boise State spot would be for a string of upsets to prevent a second team from any of the major conferences (other than Big-12) from being in the At-large pool. This would require a couple of really bad Florida losses to get them out of the top 14. However, even that is no guarantee for Boise, as it will likely open the possibility for Ball State or TCU to be at-large candidates. (TCU looked quite convincing in its schedule, though 2 losses may be a stretch for the BCS. Ball State may endure Letterman fans.)

Florida State beats Florida
Georgia Tech beats Georgia
Auburn beats Alabama

Alabama beats Florida

Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma

Maryland beats Boston College
Virginia beats Virginia Tech

Florida State beats Georgia Tech

Oregon beats Oregon State

Texas Tech, Texas, USC, Boise State, Missouri, Ball State, Cincinnati win out

1. Texas
2. USC
3. Utah
4. Texas Tech
5. Alabama
6. Penn State
7. Oklahoma
8. Boise State
9. Oklahoma State
10. Ohio State
11. TCU
12. Florida State
13. Ball State
14. Cincinnati
15. Florida
16. Missouri
17. BYU

Texas, USC
Alabama, Penn State, Florida State, Cincinnati
Utah, Texas Tech
Ohio State, Boise State

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