USC's loss - good for the PAC-10

The Pac-10 has completed most of their non-conference football schedule intact. A .500 winning percentage is not all that bad - especially when you consider they were playing real competition, as opposed to the I-AA home fluff the certain southern conferences like to play.

With only USC currently ranked, there is not a lot of chance that another team would make it to a BCS bowl, so the best shot at a big money postseason would be for a lot of teams to play in bowls. Six wins are needed for bowls. With an even nonconference won-loss mark, all it would take is a balanced conference schedule and everyone could end up 6-6 and play in bowls.

There are also a few nonconference games remaining:
Oregon State at Utah
Washington at Notre Dame
Washington State at Hawaii
UCLA at Fresno State
Notre Dame at USC
Stanford at Notre Dame
Colorado State at Cal

None of the games look like a sure thing in either direction. However, Utah will probably beat Oregon State (The Beavers have done great at home, but miserable on the road.) USC will probably beat Note Dame. Cal should beat Colorado State. Stanford and Washington at Notre Dame could be difficult to predict. We'll give it a split. UCLA is on a miserable streak, and will probably continue that against Fresno. Hawaii is nothing like they were last year, and will probably lose to Washington State. That would leave the pac-10 up a game for nonconference (with Washington state playing an extra game.) So, there still is a possibility that everyone qualifies for a bowl.

However, a more likely scenario would see the Washington schools continue to stink it up, with UCLA still feeding at the bottom. Cal and Oregon are really not in that bad a position. Oregon's lone loss is to Boise State. That Boise State team that has one of the best records over the past 5 years... Oh, and Oregon was playing with the 5th-string quarterback. Boise will likely increase in the rankings, increasing Oregon's BCS rank (and Purdue may have some surprises) If the QBs can stay healthy, Oregon could win 8 or 9 more games, and be in a position for a BCS bowl. Cal also has some could excuses - after all, there lone loss was after a cross country trip to play an early game in Maryland. If they run the table, they should qualify. However, since Oregon, USC and Cal have yet to play each other, one will end up with two loses. (And Cal still has to play a Mountain West team!)

Another scenario has Oregon State winning the remainder of its conference games, and USC winning the rest of its games. USC would probably still rank high enough and have the cachet to be taken as an at-large BCS pick. Oregon State, by virtue of their head-to-head victory over USC would be the conference champ (even if they lose to Utah, they would still be 9-3). Seeing two Pac-10 teams in the big bowls would really irk some of those southern conferences, but so be it.

On to more realistic conditions, the Pac-10 has arrangements with 7 bowls. Can 7 teams make it? USC, Oregon, and Cal should easily qualify. Arizona needs just three more wins. Unfortunately, the competition will be a little tougher than Idaho. If they can beat the 2 Washington schools, and eak out one other win (perhaps Oregon State, or in-state rival ASU), they would be in. ASU has the tough part of its schedule coming up with Cal, Oregon and USC. They would probably need to win at least one of those to keep from getting too demoralized. But even if they lose, they have the Washingtons, UCLA and Arizona.
That would leave Stanford and Oregon State. Stanford can be totally unpredictable. Perhaps a win at USC and loss at Washington? 4 more wins is a possibility. However, that would require winning something on the road. Oregon State may have a tougher time. However, if they continue their string of winning at home, they can do it. (Though it would entail beating Cal, ASU, and Oregon.) They also have a 13 game schedule. (Would that require 7 wins to be eligible?) UCLA? Well, if they find their Tennessee form, they could be back in the picture. Washington? Their schedule is often ranked the toughest in IA football. They could turn things around when they start playing unranked teams. Washinton State? Well they lost to Baylor. I'd give the conference about 70% odds of filling all the spots.