Abundance

Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson

The United States has adopted a lawyer-centric regulation system that slows progress and makes development slow and expensive. Much of the problem comes originally from the left. Activists successfully argued that laws originally written to apply to the government would apply to private parties also (as they were enabled by the government.) Environmental studies and the like become a way to quash development, while also taking time and money. Further "good intentions" also drive up costs. Government funds typically come with many compliance requirements that all cost money. These may include building standards, the type of people that can be hired, local outreach and impact and much more.

California high speed rail is case in point. Billions have been spent and there is still no rail line. China could easily build 400 miles of high speed rail for the cost that California has spent to build nothing. California started planning for high speed rail before China did. Today China has 30,000 miles. California has none.

This book is written by liberals and aimed at liberals. The right is occasionally mentioned when they intentionally dismantle programs (such as when Reagan ended solar subsidies.) The right has also learned the bureaucratic was of the left. Rather than fight all plans, they just require more studies.

There are examples when things have got done quickly. Operation Warp Speed delivered COVID vaccines much quicker than usual. However, a lot of groundwork had been made. The concept of an mRNA vaccine had been proposed decades earlier, but rejected (for being "different" and "not as good"). However, some companies were still running with it and ready to leap. The government helped provide funding and regulatory guarantees and then got out of the way. The vaccines were developed, tested and manufactured quickly and helped save many lives. (This is in contrast to the overly cautious approach to testing in the pandemic which lead to greater viral spread and cost many lives.) Another case mentioned was replacement of a damaged section of I-95. The government got out of the way and was able to build a replacement quickly.

The biggest problem with the narrative is the value judgement of "what is good". The interstate highway system was seen as something very good, yet it destroyed cities and lead to dependence on cars. Many of the future scenarios envision massive public building projects to expand solar, high speed rail and other green technology. Will these pan out? Or will some of the negatives outnumber the positives? Or will it be something that is outdated? There is danger in subsidies targeting the wrong thing or missing the mark. They mention renewables are much cheaper than fossil fuels. Yet use of solar died off when subsidies were dropped. Why was this? If industry relies on subsidies, it is open to changing whims of government. If it is a pure cost benefit, it is much clearer. Blue states tend to pass laws and subsidies for renewables, but red states have become the leaders in bringing on new renewable capacity.

The book also discusses science and innovation. There is a lot of money sloshing around and many publications. However, very little of it is useful. There is a reluctance to fund younger scientists or projects that differ significantly from the status quo. (There are some interesting quotes from James Evans on the sociology of science.) Like in the case of infrastructure projects, there is a desire to ensure that money does not go to waste. However, this is carried to far and ends up creating the waste.