Saturday, June 11, 2022

The Geography of Risk: Epic Storms, Rising Seas, and the Cost of America's Coasts

Coastal lands have been heavily developed in the last century. These areas are often filled with expensive homes (many of them second homes.) Alas, the areas are susceptible to storms and sea level rising. Many of the areas are essentially built of sand bars. Rather than being abandoned after flooding, these areas are often rebuilt with higher value property replacing the ruined less expensive housing.

The private developers have often outsources the risk in these areas to the government. Private industry had largely backed out of many of these flooded areas. However, the federal government has come in to help support flood insurance. Alas, this program has had huge losses and has supported rebuilding in flooded areas. Beyond this, FEMA has typically provided government assistance to any area in a big disaster. The federal government is subsidizing people to build in flood-prone areas. (Even fiscal conservatives are eager to get federal money when a storm hits their district.) New Jersey seems to be the best at extracting money. There are curious cases of the Corps of Engineers moving sand to the beach, only to have it blow away shortly after. 

What is the fix? There are billions and possibly trillions of dollars of real estate sitting on locations that are likely to be underwater in the next century. Maintaining that land will be extremely expensive. Eventually, they will not be able to be bailed out. Will we gradually move to higher ground, or just continue to rebuild in the same vulnerable locations as we have done?

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