Hit Makers: The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction

Viral popularity is rarely achieved by small-scale word-of-mouth propagation. Most commonly, there are a few "superspreaders" that broadcast something to their fan base. A video is much more likely to become popular if Justin Bieber gushes about it to his fanbase than if 20 average Joe's like it.

Popularity is often based on luck and popularity rather than quality. An example was given of a "hit ranking" algorithm. It looks at just the musical nature of a song to rank its hit potential. Most actual hits have acceptable scores, but not necessarily near the top. A song must not be awful. Beyond that, other factors come into play. Some songs may be more heavily promoted. Others may be liked by influences with large audiences. A song by a popular artist is more likely to be a hit than one by an unknown artist. Simply being popular can lead to more popularity.

A hit relied on both familiarity and novelty. People like things that they are familiar with. However, they also tire of the same thing. Having just enough novelty with the familiarity helps to create a hit. An artist with past success can afford to take significant artistic risks because they already have an audience that will listen to them. A new artist will often need to be more familiar to be able to gain an audience.

With the ease of producing media today, gatekeepers have become more important. People tend to like things that other people like. Having charts or other sources tell them what media to consume is helpful, especially with all the media out there.

Taste and fashion changes over time. Laugh tracks went in and out of fashion in comedies. Rock around the Clock flopped at first, but became a mega-hit after being included in Blackboard Jungle. Star Wars was made because Lucas couldn't get the rights to make a Flash Gordon movie. Flash Gordon was made because they couldn't get the rights to John Carter. Yet recently, John Carter was one of the biggest hollywood flops. 

The right thing and the right time can become a hit. Trying to identify the key elements of a hit from the item itself can be a fool's errand. Everything around it plays a role.