Until Proven Safe: The History and Future of Quarantine

The authors of Until Proven Safe had been researching the obscure subject of quarantines. Then covid-19 hit, and it became a topic of mass interest.

Quarantine has the number 4 at its root. It was based on the religious idea of 40 days of separation. Strictly speaking, quarantines are for people that are not yet known to have a disease. (People with the disease would go into isolation.) They were significant centuries ago in response to the black death - especially among trading empires such as Venice. Livelihoods depended on trade, yet people want to be safe. Quarantines of goods and people were a way to accomplish this. Little was understood of how diseases spread, but there was some belief that it was through contact.

Quarantine has continue to be used with various degrees of effectiveness up until today. Quarantine "theater" has also been common. The case of the moon landing was a significant case. The capsule and contents were under strict quarantine after returning to earth. This may have been good - if not for the fact that the capsule had already spent time in the ocean. Oh well.

Intelligent quarantine could be the most effective way to limit disease propagation. Two major cities on the other side of the world are likely to be more connected than one city and a closeby rural area. Small-scale blocking of key corridors can have the greatest benefit with the smallest amount of economic cost. However, people are involved. People have been sneaking around quarantines for century. As seen with covid, it is important to balance costs and benefits to be successful.