Monday, December 06, 2010

BCS chaos scenario

What would have happened if a few close games went the other way? Or a few upsets didn't happen? Here is the "BCS chaos scenario". I've "reversed" some games that

South Carolina L Alabama, L Clemson; 7-5; Newton Dq'd, win SEC champ: 8-5
Oregon: L Cal, Stanford, Oregon State 9-3
Hawaii: Beat USC, Colorado : 12-1
Fresno: Beat Mississipi 9-3
Virginia Tech: Beat James Madison: 12-1
Wisconsin: L ASU, Wisconisn 9-3
Oregon State: W Washington, Washington State, UCLA, Oregon 9-3
Utah: W Notre Dame: 11-1
Ohio State: L Iowa, L Illinois 9-3
Arkansas: L Texas A&M, W Alabama, L Mississuppi 9-3
LSU: L Tennessee, Mississippi 8-4
Oklahoma: L Utah State, Air Force 8-4
Missouri: L San Diego State, W Texas Tech, L (Big 12 Champ. A&M) 10-3 
San Diego State: W BYU, Missouri 10-2
Alabama: W South Carolina 10-2, L Arkansas
Air Force: W Oklaoma 9-3
Teas A&M: W Arkansas, L FIU 9-3, W Big 12 champ (Missouri)
UCF: Win NC State, Kansas State 12-1
Oklahoma State L  Troy 9-3
Iowa: W Ohio State, Wisconsin, L Indiana 8-4
North illinois: W illinois, Miami (OH) 12-1
Pitt: L FIU, W UConn, L USF (6-6) [5-2]
West Virginia: L Louisville (8-4) [4-3]
UConn: L Pitt 7-5 [4-3]
Stanford: W Oregon 12-0
With the results, we end up with BCS results something like this. All the potential at-large teams are from non-BCS conferences. Boise State and TCU end up in the championship game. The Orange bowl figures 6-6 Pitt will travel well, so they pick them against Virginia Tech. The Sugar goes the service academy route. The Fiesta figures that Utah would travel well again. The whole BCS blows up in smoke, as they are stuck with a bunch of games they really didn't want. They finally cave and decide a playoff wouldn't be so bad after all - especially if they can use their stadiums for venues. Or maybe the presidents get mad and say enough is enough and return the bowls to their old New Years Day special reward.

1. TCU: 12-0 [BCS Champ]
2. Boise State 12-0 [BCS Championship]
3. Stanford: 11-1 [Rose]    
4. Michigan State: 11-1 [Rose]
5. Virginia Tech: 12-1 [Orange]
6. Hawaii: 12-1 
7. Utah: 11-1 [Fiesta]
8. UCF 12-1 
9. San Diego State: 10-2
10. Northern Illinois 12-1
11. Nevada: 11-2
12. Texas A&M 10-3 [Fiesta]
13. Air Force 9-3 [Sugar]
14. Fresno State 9-3
Oregon: 9-3 
Wisconsin: 9-3
Alabama: 9-3
Missouri 9-3
Nebraska 10-3
Florida State 10-3
Arkansas 9-3
West Virginia 9-3
Ohio State 9-3
Oklahoma State 9-3
Oregon State 8-4
Oklahoma 8-4
Mississippi State 8-4
LSU 8-4
Pitt 6-6 [Orange]
South Carolina 8-5 [Sugar]
Auburn 12-1 [ineligible]

Ok, this probably stretched credulity a little too far. (Teams like 'bama and Oregon would probably be ranked above some of these non-AQs.) However, getting TCU vs. Boise in the national Championship required nothing more than flipping an NCAA ruling and a few scores.
Auburn misses a field goal in the OT win vs. Clemson (and perhaps at Mississippi State also)
Boise doesn't miss a field goal in OT loss at Nevada
Cal scored a field goal vs. Oregon
Virginia Tech wasn't caught by surprise by James Madison
And for good measure, ASU didn't miss the extra point vs. Wisconsin

This would leave:
12-0 Boise State
12-0 TCU
12-1 Virginia Tech
11-1 Oregon
11-1 Auburn or (10-2)
11-1 Stanford
11-1 Ohio State
11-1 Michigan State

Its probably best to give Auburn two losses to make sure a 1 loss SEC team doesn't sneak in to the championship. It would be hard to justify sending any of the remaining one-lossers over undefeated Boise and TCU. (Ohio State has the biggest "name brand". But they also have the loss to one loss Michigan State - and a schedule strength comparable to Boise and TCU. Stanford had looked the best, but they have the loss to Oregon. Virginia Tech would be on the tear, with 12 wins since the season opening loss to Boise. However, who wants a rematch?

Just a few field goals away.

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