- Caltrain could go broke with $30 million annual shortfall
- Caltrain nearing start of $1.2 billion electrification job
In the worst case, there is a $30 annual operating deficit that could lead to a slashing of half of the train service. Meanwhile, there is $1.2 billion floating around to make improvements to the tracks. If one of us were faced with a similar situation, we could through the $1.2 billion in the bank. If we can get at least 2.5% return, there would be enough to cover the operating deficit.
Instead, in our wonderful world, there is an iron wall separating operating and capital expenses. Thus we get a lot of new transit infrastructure that is rarely used, while transit that is used rots away. For transit to be successful, there must be a long term commitment. Transit friendly housing, shopping and offices depend on reliable transit. A train station is more likely to attract development than a bus stop in part due to the commitment. However, if the trains don't run, even a train station doesn't do much good.
Recently, millions of dollars were spent on extending BART to SFO, including a giant viaduct from Millbrae to SFO that rarely sees trains. VTA would like to spend another $6 billion for a dozen miles of BART track. In a rationale world, they would simply send some of that money to maintain operations of existing bus and train lines. But instead, we'll just let the existing transit go broke, siphoning off ridership and driving more people (against their will) to their cars.
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