Monday, October 20, 2008

First BCS standings

The First BCS standings are out today. Its interesting to see that the computers all rank the 'non-BCS' schools (with the exemption of BYU) higher than the human polls do. This seems to be quite different than past years, where the non-BCS were often supported by the human polls. It is likely a mixture of the strength of non-conference schedules by non-BCS teams compared to the cupcake scheduling of BCS teams (hello SEC and Big12), as well as the relative strength of various conferences. (USC did schedule some real opponents - but the Pac10 is just not that great this year.)

If the season ended today, the BCS would probably be something like this:
Championship: (1)Texas[Big12]-(2)Alabama[sec]
Rose: (3)Penn State[big10]-(5)USC[pac10]
Fiesta: (4)Oklahoma [Big12 at large]-(16)USF[BigEast]
Orange: (18)Georgia Tech[acc]-(9)Ohio State[big10 at large]
Sugar: (7)Georgia[SEC at large]-(11)Utah[mountain west - nonBCS]

Probably the only real question is whether Georgia or Florida gets the sec at large spot. With 3 sec teams in the top 12, it could be a question of who draws the most fans. For the Big 12, there are 4 teams, but Oklahoma is the top rated and easily has the most pull. The final spot would be between Ohio State and Boise State. An OU-BSU rematch would be interesting, but I'd expect a 'traditional' power like OSU to win out in the BCS minds.

However, things could get interesting next week. If Penn State thumps Ohio State, they will take a nose dive in the rankings. If LSU loses to Georgia and Oklahoma State loses to Texas, we would likely end up with a top 12 like:

1 Texas
2 Alabama
3 Penn State
4 Oklahoma
5 USC
6 Georgia
7 Texas Tech
8 Florida
9 Utah
10 Boise State
11 TCU
12 Oklahoma State

Championship: (1)Texas[Big12]-(2)Alabama[sec]
Rose: (3)Penn State[big10]-(5)USC[pac10]
Fiesta: (4)Oklahoma [Big12 at large]-(16)USF[BigEast]
Orange: (18)Georgia Tech[acc]-(9)Boise State[WAC at large]
Sugar: (7)Georgia[SEC at large]-(11)Utah[mountain west - nonBCS]

Boise State and TCU would be the only options for the final at large spot. So one would have to go in. Now of course, the wild way would be for the SEC to continue to beat each other, the Big12 to post round-robin victories, and the Big East and ACC to creep up in the polls.

1 Texas
2 Oklahoma
3 Penn State
4 USC
5 Texas Tech
6 Alabama
7 Utah
8 Boise State
9 Georgia Tech
10 Pitt
11 Ball State
12 Tulsa

With this, the Big 12 would have two teams in the championship, one Big12 would be left out, and the at large spots would be filled by selecting from 3 of 4 non-BCS teams - leading to an imminent reorganization of the BCS.

(Though an even better scenario would involve a whole lot more pummeling:)
1. Utah
2. Boise State
3. Tulsa
4. Ball State
5. Texas
6. Alabama
7. USC
8. Pittsburg
9. Georgia Tech
10. TCU
11. BYU
12. Penn State

This would probably be our best bet for a playoff. A BCS championship game with two 'non-BCS' schools, plus two additional at-large spots filled with non-BCS schools. The powers that be would soon realize that the playoff may be the only way to really keep the money in their pockets.

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